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March 11th storm threat


Rjay
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Short range models do have snow mixing in for a while in N Nassau and much of NYC. In the city I doubt anything sticks but maybe away from the heat island if it can cool to near freezing. I think it’ll be a lot of white rain but it’s good that it’s falling at night. Temp here is still 40 so a ways to go. 

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55 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Latest rgem ticked slightly colder and now has a tiny bit of snow making it to the northern parts of the city, i'll be excited to wake up to my 0.2 of an inch (sarcasm).    

I see the 02z HRRR has a band of snow early to mid morning and now gives NYC and my area 1 to 2 inches of snow. I'm not expecting that (I'm thinking just a coating), but I hope to be surprised in the morning. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Short range models do have snow mixing in for a while in N Nassau and much of NYC. In the city I doubt anything sticks but maybe away from the heat island if it can cool to near freezing. I think it’ll be a lot of white rain but it’s good that it’s falling at night. Temp here is still 40 so a ways to go. 

40 here too, long way to go to get toward freezing. 

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What is going on that basically every storm underperforms in the same fashion. If the model consensus says snow going to rain, we get the changeover quicker then the models thought....and if it's rain going to snow, the changeover takes longer, or is further NW, and we also get less snow then model consensus. 

Is this a part of a global warming phenomenon that the computer models haven't quite resolved yet? How can the same thing happen such a large percentage of the time and in the same fashion? 

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The NWS says the 2nd batch should be all rain near/SE of 95, as per below.  Just for the record, though, the NWS would not have seen the 6Z NAM, GFS or the 8Z HRRR, which show 2-3" south of 80 and along and SE of 95 down to the coast and for NYC/LI from 4 am to 10 am) when they wrote the discussion above - could they be this wrong (the NWS or the models)?  This is why forecasting is so hard, lol.  

Most of the rain and snow has tapered off. However, as that system
over northeast Pennsylvania passes through New Jersey, precip will
ramp up again later this morning over northern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania. For areas south and east of the I-95
corridor, temperatures should stay warm enough for precip to be all
rain. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precip
will mostly be snow, and an additional 2 to 3 inches will
accumulate. Will cancel the Winter Storm Warning for Monroe
county, and will carry a Winter Weather Advisory for Carbon,
Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties through this morning. For the
Lehigh Valley and portions of northern New Jersey south of I-80
and north of the I- 95 corridor, precip should be a mix of rain
and snow with minimal snow accumulation. Will cancel the other
Winter Weather Advisories.

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

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The NWS says the 2nd batch should be all rain near/SE of 95, as per below.  Just for the record, though, the NWS would not have seen the 6Z NAM, GFS or the 8Z HRRR, which show 2-3" south of 80 and along and SE of 95 down to the coast and for NYC/LI from 4 am to 10 am) when they wrote the discussion above - could they be this wrong (the NWS or the models)?  This is why forecasting is so hard, lol.  
Most of the rain and snow has tapered off. However, as that systemover northeast Pennsylvania passes through New Jersey, precip willramp up again later this morning over northern New Jersey andsoutheast Pennsylvania. For areas south and east of the I-95corridor, temperatures should stay warm enough for precip to be allrain. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipwill mostly be snow, and an additional 2 to 3 inches willaccumulate. Will cancel the Winter Storm Warning for Monroecounty, and will carry a Winter Weather Advisory for Carbon,Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties through this morning. For theLehigh Valley and portions of northern New Jersey south of I-80and north of the I- 95 corridor, precip should be a mix of rainand snow with minimal snow accumulation. Will cancel the otherWinter Weather Advisories.

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png
sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png
sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png


Those 10:1 ratio maps are severely overdone
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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Of course they are, but the point remains that the NWS said all rain and we have 3 models saying quite a bit of snow to fall, even if it doesn't accumulate...

It is steady rain out, and I had discounted this event completely ( have thrown in the towel on this winter awhile ago ) is there supposed to be a changeover to white rain? Headed out for a walk rn.

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