LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Dynamic cooling. It never got below 33 the storm a few weeks ago and we still got two inches. February 28th? I got 1.5-2 inches in that too, I think that one was snow throughout the storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In March 2019 a storm came in and I was at 38 and white rain. A few hours later the intensity picked up big time and I quickly went to 33 and heavy snow. Ended up with 8 inches of cement. Point being, yes you can get accumulating snow at 33/34 if it's heavy enough. This has to be what NWS is thinking. I would think that more likely for the noreaster next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol. With our luck that norlun is going to hit either Toms River or the Hamptons lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: I would think that more likely for the noreaster next week. A norlun trough can be extremely heavy. Also this low is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: A norlun trough can be extremely heavy. Also this low is intense. I would put the chances of a norlun hitting NYC or here at under 1% they always happen either south or north of here. In 40 plus years we've never had one here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: A norlun trough can be extremely heavy. Also this low is intense. I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: With our luck that norlun is going to hit either Toms River or the Hamptons lol. It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning. This is a case where you can wake up and the snow is gone! In 2018 had a 10 incher that dropped a tree on my house. I went to bed and a few hours later woke up was down to 3. The zoo keeper needs to be on top of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics. Yes, I think that's why it happens in those places, the same reason why the big snowstorm last year hit those areas much harder than NYC, NYC is too tucked in for its own good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is a case where you can wake up and the snow is gone! In 2018 had a 10 incher that dropped a tree on my house. I went to bed and a few hours later woke up was down to 3. The zoo keeper needs to be on top of this. Well that damage sounds horrible, but aside from that it sounds exciting. Just keep in mind you don't get that kind of thing in late season events down here. An inch or 2 max is probably the ceiling for this down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 to 1 adjust as necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: 10 to 1 adjust as necessary It always pays to be very cautious around the lower borders of those snowfall totals, note how quickly it goes from 3 inches to 0 lol. It's much better to be under those purple shadings of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It always pays to be very cautious around the lower borders of those snowfall totals, note how quickly it goes from 3 inches to 0 lol. It's much better to be under those purple shadings of course. I am going with 50% only for simplicity at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 10 to 1 adjust as necessary The GFS was very bullish on 2/28 too. This won't be close to 10:1 either for most of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 NWS gave us a WWA for 3-6 inches. Bullish. Worked last time for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 FWIW the GEFS upped the QPF for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 FWIW the GEFS upped the QPF for all.They’ve upped theirs, now up yours!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Looks like well get a full night of cooling followed by no sunshine tomorrow... that might help keep baseline temps down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nam is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: Nam is warm This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. RGEM also has been pretty locked in to the warmer solution. I agree this is basically done, not sure what upton is seeing. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031000&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. Might bold well for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 50 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. GFS is the only outlier and it always seems to be overamped. Oh well. On to the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 All the 0z runs all trended worse for tonight/tomorrow morning. The WWA is going to be way overdone. 4-6 inches is not happening. This is an inch or 2 at best NW of NYC, 2 being the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Will likely be a tune up for the Monday event, 1.5 to 3.0 potential at most. Monday-Tuesday could be 5-10 times that in some model scenarios. Seems like 1972-73 is calling, the message says "you need a warm March to beat me." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Latest EPS members for NYC for the upcoming system: My thinking at this time is 0.5" or less in NYC and 1"-3" 25-30 miles north and west of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Personally i dont think any of us reach a high in the mid 40's,i might be wrong but the cloud cover is def gonna keep it from reaching the maximum diurnal warming. Also its pretty cold at 32/25. Any precip that arrives will wet bulb the temps to around 32-36 depending on location. So it might snow even then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looks like NWS lowered totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like NWS lowered totals. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like NWS lowered totals. Still sorta bullish with WWA calling for 3-5 inches for immediate NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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