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March 11th storm threat


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In March 2019 a storm came in and I was at 38 and white rain.

A few hours later the intensity picked up big time and I quickly went to 33 and heavy snow. Ended up with 8 inches of cement.

Point being, yes you can get accumulating snow at 33/34 if it's heavy enough. This has to be what NWS is thinking. 

I would think that more likely for the noreaster next week.

 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

A norlun trough can be extremely heavy. Also this low is intense.

I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning.  

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

With our luck that norlun is going to hit either Toms River or the Hamptons lol.

 

It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics. 

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning.  

This is a case where you can wake up and the snow is gone!

In 2018 had a 10 incher that dropped a tree on my house. I went to bed and a few hours later woke up was down to 3.

The zoo keeper needs to be on top of this.

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3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics. 

Yes, I think that's why it happens in those places, the same reason why the big snowstorm last year hit those areas much harder than NYC, NYC is too tucked in for its own good.

 

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is a case where you can wake up and the snow is gone!

In 2018 had a 10 incher that dropped a tree on my house. I went to bed and a few hours later woke up was down to 3.

The zoo keeper needs to be on top of this.

Well that damage sounds horrible, but aside from that it sounds exciting.

Just keep in mind you don't get that kind of thing in late season events down here.

An inch or 2 max is probably the ceiling for this down here.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It always pays to be very cautious around the lower borders of those snowfall totals, note how quickly it goes from 3 inches to 0 lol.  It's much better to be under those purple shadings of course.

 

I am going with 50% only for simplicity at this point.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. 

RGEM also has been pretty locked in to the warmer solution. I agree this is basically done, not sure what upton is seeing.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031000&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

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33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. 

Might bold well for storm 2

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50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail. 

GFS is the only outlier and it always seems to be overamped. Oh well. On to the next storm 

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Personally i dont think any of us reach a high in the mid 40's,i might be wrong but the cloud cover is def gonna keep it from reaching the maximum diurnal warming. Also its pretty cold at 32/25. Any precip that arrives will wet bulb the temps to around 32-36 depending on location. So it might snow even then.

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