LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not tossing but not buying either. Someone will get a surprise but most models focus on the norlun feature over NJ Coast or near NYC and not over LI. interesting how norluns love the NJ Coast and NE but not us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 What's frustrating is that thickness are below 534 and its rain. Welcome to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The primary is in western PA so it floods the area with warmer air. It's not until the coastal takes over that we change to snow. The norlun feature is our best bet and it has support from Rgem & Nam. Normally norluns happen further N&E but the ESE track of coastal would favor our region. Probably another 1-2" type deal Norluns interestingly enough favor areas both north and south of the area....so either coastal NJ or SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: A cutoff like that would be the closest thing to Dec 30 2000 that I can remember. I know nothing about the other features of the two systems, but from a snow map standpoint it would be fairly close (though Dec 30 2000 had closer to 10" in Nassau. Still the heaviest two hour period of snow I've ever seen.) that was because of track, the storm cut across central Long Island, we were lucky to get a foot of heavy wet snow here in SW Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 NAM on the 18z run still gives a pretty good burst of snow saturday morning. Not looking great right now, but at least we still have 2 models (HRRR and NAM) saying it could be interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3k a might snowier than 12k. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Close to throwing in the towel. This just likes a very crappy setup SE of I287. Someone somewhere may get Norlun surprise but not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Central Park forecast on NWS Friday Night Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I’m expecting less than an inch at y Just now, EastonSN+ said: Central Park forecast on NWS Friday Night Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. That’ll probably change soon imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 WWAs up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: I’m expecting less than an inch at y That’ll probably change soon imo. I think they just put that forecast in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I’m expecting less than an inch at y That’ll probably change soon imo. I'm dubious of 1-3 inch amounts with that low temp of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 My point and click in Rockland is for 3-5" Very similar to last weeks event. Changeover expected at 10PM Friday night. Ending late Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm dubious of 1-3 inch amounts with that low temp of 33. If it doesn’t accumulate by 7:00 am it’s over for the city. Daytime snow above freezing no chance in the city. The recent models seem to delaying the changeover from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm dubious of 1-3 inch amounts with that low temp of 33. That 1-3" is for non paved surfaces for the city and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The 18z GFS has a very sharp cut off South of I-287-I-87 in Rockland/Westchester. Basically on a line from Suffern to Spring Valley to Nanuet to Nyack to White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Obviously upton likes this event more than I do because I’m under a WWA and expecting an inch at best. I think you’ll have to get to the I287 corridor to see 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS has a very sharp cut off South of I-287-I-87 in Rockland. Yea this seems to be where the models are going with this. Not gonna rely on the 3k NAM for hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Yea this seems to be where the models are going with this. Not gonna rely on the 3k NAM for hope. Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain. I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well. I'll be happy if it flips over by 2 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: I'll be happy if it flips over by 2 am 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well. Its a double edged sword. We have a stronger coastal closer to the coast bringing in heavier precip but also warmer 925 and BL temps... Lets see what tomorrow meso models say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'll be happy if it flips over by 2 am 2 am would be fine. That’s a 5 hour window for accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I like how there's a stripe of 2-3 inches that goes right down to JFK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks almost the same as 2/28 except noticeably less north shore of Suffolk. I'm still having a hard time buying those totals in NYC and the immediate NW suburbs but hopefully Upton knows something I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Looks almost the same as 2/28 except noticeably less north shore of Suffolk. I'm still having a hard time buying those totals in NYC and the immediate NW suburbs but hopefully Upton knows something I don't. what do you think of the 2-3 inches right down to JFK lol it reminds me of January 2008 (but that was in January!) when we had snow here but all sides of us were raining lol Busted heavy snow warning, the last one ever issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: what do you think of the 2-3 inches right down to JFK lol it reminds me of January 2008 (but that was in January!) when we had snow here but all sides of us were raining lol Busted heavy snow warning, the last one ever issued. I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm dubious of 1-3 inch amounts with that low temp of 33. Dynamic cooling. It never got below 33 the storm a few weeks ago and we still got two inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 In March 2019 a storm came in and I was at 38 and white rain. A few hours later the intensity picked up big time and I quickly went to 33 and heavy snow. Ended up with 8 inches of cement. Point being, yes you can get accumulating snow at 33/34 if it's heavy enough. This has to be what NWS is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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