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March 11th storm threat


Rjay
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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The primary is in western PA so it floods the area with warmer air. It's not until the coastal takes over that we change to snow.

The norlun feature is our best bet and it has support from Rgem & Nam.

Normally norluns happen further N&E but the ESE track of coastal would favor our region. Probably another 1-2" type deal

Norluns interestingly enough favor areas both north and south of the area....so either coastal NJ or SNE

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14 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

A cutoff like that would be the closest thing to Dec 30 2000 that I can remember.  I know nothing about the other features of the two systems, but from a snow map standpoint it would be fairly close (though Dec 30 2000 had closer to 10" in Nassau.  Still the heaviest two hour period of snow I've ever seen.)

that was because of track, the storm cut across central Long Island, we were lucky to get a foot of heavy wet snow here in SW Nassau.

 

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Central Park forecast on NWS

Friday Night
Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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I’m expecting less than an inch at y

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park forecast on NWS

Friday Night
Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

That’ll probably change soon imo. 

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea this seems to be where the models are going with this. Not gonna rely on the 3k NAM for hope. 

Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain.

I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well. 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

I'll be happy if it flips over by 2 am

 

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well. 

Its a double edged sword. We have a stronger coastal closer to the coast bringing in heavier precip but also warmer 925 and BL temps... Lets see what tomorrow meso models say

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks almost the same as 2/28 except noticeably less north shore of Suffolk. I'm still having a hard time buying those totals in NYC and the immediate NW suburbs but hopefully Upton knows something I don't.  

what do you think of the 2-3 inches right down to JFK lol

it reminds me of January 2008 (but that was in January!) when we had snow here but all sides of us were raining lol

Busted heavy snow warning, the last one ever issued.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what do you think of the 2-3 inches right down to JFK lol

it reminds me of January 2008 (but that was in January!) when we had snow here but all sides of us were raining lol

Busted heavy snow warning, the last one ever issued.

 

I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol. 

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In March 2019 a storm came in and I was at 38 and white rain.

A few hours later the intensity picked up big time and I quickly went to 33 and heavy snow. Ended up with 8 inches of cement.

Point being, yes you can get accumulating snow at 33/34 if it's heavy enough. This has to be what NWS is thinking. 

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