EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This will be a case of whether or not the zoo keeper measures during the storm or waits until it melts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The primary is in western PA so it floods the area with warmer air. It's not until the coastal takes over that we change to snow. The norlun feature is our best bet and it has support from Rgem & Nam. Normally norluns happen further N&E but the ESE track of coastal would favor our region. Probably another 1-2" type deal The RGEM is pretty ugly but it’s also kind of dry. Wetter=snowier, drier=rain or white rain in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This will be a case of whether or not the zoo keeper measures during the storm or waits until it melts. This could be a case where cpk gets less than 1 while everywhere on all sides of it get more but hopefully not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Right now I’d probably focus on qpf and dewpoints. The models may not pick up on dynamic cooling until the last moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 NYC's best shot looks to be early Saturday morning when the coastal low starts to take over. Depending on the model, rain should become snow in the city between 3 and 6AM, continuing until 10AM. This shift should happen a couple hours earlier in New Jersey, Upstate NY and Connecticut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This is going to end up similar to the system from last week. Most areas should be under 6". Most of the interior should see 2-4" with a few areas 4"+. 1-2" for NE NJ near the city, Central NJ and Southern Westchester. Coating for the immediate coastal plain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The RGEM is pretty ugly but it’s also kind of dry. Wetter=snowier, drier=rain or white rain in this setup. Rgem didn't have much with the last minor event and most got an inch or two out of it. I expect something similar again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12z GFS. Looks like I-287-I-87 in NY is the cutoff for 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Long island with a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Long island with a little? That is contingent on this frame verifying with the band over LI as the storm is pulling away. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: That is contingent on this frame verifying with the band over LI as the storm is pulling away. Toss. I'm not tossing but not buying either. Someone will get a surprise but most models focus on the norlun feature over NJ Coast or near NYC and not over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not tossing but not buying either. Someone will get a surprise but most models focus on the norlun feature over NJ Coast or near NYC and not over LI. Norlons are so hard to forecast though, even only a few days out so the range of possibilities are still fairly wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'm not tossing but not buying either. Someone will get a surprise but most models focus on the norlun feature over NJ Coast or near NYC and not over LI. I'm tossing because it's the GFS. If the NAM/RGEM/HRRR show something similar tomorrow then maybe it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'm tossing because it's the GFS. If the NAM/RGEM/HRRR show something similar tomorrow then maybe it's legit. The NAM has not been a good model either. Agree about RGEM or short range HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Norlons are so hard to forecast though, even only a few days out so the range of possibilities are still fairly wide They are and I honestly hate them lol because so hard to forecast and most likely will get nothing if relying on it but if you do get lucky wow they can be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The NAM is not good either. Agree about RGEM or short range HRRR. LOL that is one thing that the NAM is actually good for. People misuse it all the time but it was built to pick out small mesoscale features like this. It also does well with temperature profiles in borderline setups, although it does tend to be a tad too cold while the RGEM tends to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 It’s a cliche at this point but whether or not we have an idea if the urban areas immediately near NYC and south east of there see decent accumulations will come down to nowcasting. We have a few more model cycles yet to go but I feel like we’re going to be windshield whipping up to the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: It’s a cliche at this point but whether or not we have an idea if the urban areas immediately near NYC and south east of there see decent accumulations will come down to nowcasting. We have a few more model cycles yet to go but I feel like we’re going to be windshield whipping up to the event. You have a few things working for you at the coast. Most of the precip falls at night and we could get a few hours of moderate/heavy precip. But the BL is warm and even though all areas should flip to snow eventually, it will be falling mostly on pavement in urban areas. Should see at least filtered March sunshine until mid-late afternoon. Bottom line it will have trouble accumulating outside of grassy areas unless it comes down very heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12z GGEM 2-4" interior. Coating to an inch coastal plain. Cutoff I-287-I-87 in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 ECM warm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Coastal seems a bit closer to coast this run, helps the NW crew but not everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Closer for Eastern LI, NYC complete shaft this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The secondary definitely noticeably west and has more of an E path than SE which could be a game changer especially LI but we are inside 48 hours so running out of time for big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro still pretty much in line with the rest of the guidance outside of the overdone GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The secondary definitely noticeably west and has more of an E path than SE which could be a game changer especially LI but we are inside 48 hours so running out of time for big changes. HRRR did very well with the last event even in its long range, so we can hope it's correct with the cold snowy solution it showed on the 12z run. But too many other models don't look good for us to be optimistic for areas closer to the coast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: HRRR did very well with the last event even in its long range, so we can hope it's correct with the cold snowy solution it showed on the 12z run. But too many other models don't look good for us to be optimistic for areas closer to the coast right now. Snow to rain scenarios almost always seem to do better than rain to snow scenarios near the coast so not surprised this is trending worse without powerful dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro with the shut out for the coast. Damn 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, psv88 said: Euro with the shut out for the coast. Damn Fat lady is warming up her voice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Thermals on even the high res guidance are pretty poor here. I'd be fairly surprised if anything measurable fell in the metro itself UNLESS the axis of the IT feature ends up dead over the top and you could probably drop 2-3 wet inches of snow before by 9am it melted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Fat lady is warming up her voice. Hrrr is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Hrrr is pretty good The HRRR is usually too cold at this range but the good news is it does show the meat of the heaviest QPF being over the area...if that verifies we have a shot but these things will tend to end up more NE in time. I'd like being probably in SW CT at this point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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