jm1220 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 55 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The only advantage this time is we don't have to worry about mid level warming but going to be hard to get down to freezing with light-moderate precip, Yup. Snow was also dumping here for a while which helped accumulate obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Frank Gorshin eat your heart out.... https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Seems more qpf than other models. If that much qpf truly falls the same places that did well on 2/28 could do well again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Seems more qpf than other models. If that much qpf truly falls the same places that did well on 2/28 could do well again. 18z Vs 12z is considerably more in northern areas. .5 vs .3 by me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 0Z RGEM is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z RGEM is warmer. Yeah, looks like a lot of white rain near the city and east. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah, looks like a lot of white rain near the city and east. Oh well. Looks like plain rain until 6z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 0Z Gfs looks pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 GFS moves the low north east. That allows the city to get into heavier snow bands late in the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: GFS moves the low north east. That allows the city to get into heavier snow bands late in the storm. Interesting to see if 18z euro and 0Z gfs are picking up on a wetter trend that the mesos wouldn’t catch yet. Curious to see what cmc shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 0Z CMC is also wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CMC has same trend as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Big qpf jump on the 0Z global models, this could potentially be a game changer. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030900&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=gdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023030900&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Interesting to see if 18z euro and 0Z gfs are picking up on a wetter trend that the mesos wouldn’t catch yet. Curious to see what cmc shows. That's exactly what we would need-heavy rates and dynamics to bring the cold air to the surface. Light/paltry crap like NAM/RGEM would mean cold rain/white rain unless you're inland and elevated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Can't be using 10:1 ratio maps in a marginal thermal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 31 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Can't be using 10:1 ratio maps in a marginal thermal event. Totally agree but still a nice bump. Also if snow is heavy and better dynamics involved it could improve ratios I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, mannynyc said: GFS moves the low north east. That allows the city to get into heavier snow bands late in the storm. 6-8 in Babylon and then like <0.5” in Patchogue would be the craziest cutoff I’ve ever seen for the island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: 6-8 in Babylon and then like <0.5” in Patchogue would be the craziest cutoff I’ve ever seen for the island I think it's marginal events where the GFS doesn't recognize eastern LI being land and pumps out weird gradients like this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, Nibor said: I think it's marginal events where the GFS doesn't recognize eastern LI being land and pumps out weird gradients like this one. A cutoff like that would be the closest thing to Dec 30 2000 that I can remember. I know nothing about the other features of the two systems, but from a snow map standpoint it would be fairly close (though Dec 30 2000 had closer to 10" in Nassau. Still the heaviest two hour period of snow I've ever seen.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: 6-8 in Babylon and then like <0.5” in Patchogue would be the craziest cutoff I’ve ever seen for the island With BL temps in the mid 30s on Saturday in the daytime hours a lot of this is not going to stick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, Tatamy said: With BL temps in the mid 30s on Saturday in the daytime hours a lot of this is not going to stick. If it only sticks to grass and car tops that will be fine...its March and we aren't getting an arctic blizzard. Mood flakes at this point are a welcome farewell to a winter than never was, and a harbinger of nicer weather to come, we hope....and not a cold wet spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Anyone have the 6z snow map. EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 hours ago, Nibor said: I think it's marginal events where the GFS doesn't recognize eastern LI being land and pumps out weird gradients like this one. That’s very true but also in this case the storm will be drying out the further east you are. The cutoff is less about temps and more about less moisture due to the secondary tracking SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 HRRR is starting out looking good for this event. The 12z run gets at least a few inches down to Middlesex and Monmouth counties. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The models continue to seem to show higher liquid in the NYC/central NJ/western LI region. If that trend holds I’d expect snowfall totals to bump up as we get closer to event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The models continue to seem to show higher liquid in the NYC/central NJ/western LI region. If that trend holds I’d expect snowfall totals to bump up as we get closer to event. Yup. That trough it continually modeled over the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The models continue to seem to show higher liquid in the NYC/central NJ/western LI region. If that trend holds I’d expect snowfall totals to bump up as we get closer to event. Has a norlun look to it by Saturday morning. That could lead to locally much higher amounts Nam shows this now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Has a norlun look to it by Saturday morning. That could lead to locally much higher amounts Nam shows this now On the NAM it takes awhile for the rain to change to snow for our area, but yeah then it delivers early saturday morning. It has a jackpot for Monmouth and Ocean counties. Pretty interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: On the NAM it takes awhile for the rain to change to snow for our area, but yeah then it delivers early saturday morning. It has a jackpot for Monmouth and Ocean counties. Pretty interesting. The primary is in western PA so it floods the area with warmer air. It's not until the coastal takes over that we change to snow. The norlun feature is our best bet and it has support from Rgem & Nam. Normally norluns happen further N&E but the ESE track of coastal would favor our region. Probably another 1-2" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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