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March 11th storm threat


Rjay
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27 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation.

 

17 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Sorry if this is too blunt but I honestly could care less that model is terrible. 

The ukie is a good model with questionable thermals. 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's plenty cold enough if the precip is heavy enough 

The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder. 

Dynamic cooling. If the precip comes down heavy enough you WILL snow.

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55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

WE HAD A FORKY SIGHTING!!

I think that means he sees potential for the area.

How can anyone not see potential when Euro has a 972 at the BM for storm 2. Details to be sorted out. 
 

oh wait sorry wrong thread but I assumed we were taking storm 2, storm 1 seems like a pretty minor event. 

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't think that worked out too well for the immediate coast. That storm also had better dynamics than this one. 

The ratio here in the last storm was probably 8:1 and that was with temps 31-32 during the snow. On the immediate coast it didn’t accumulate because temps were stuck at 34-35. We can definitely get accumulation from this if rates increase but we want to veer the wind direction to offshore and get temps down preferably to freezing or below. On the coast that will be hard. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The ratio here in the last storm was probably 8:1 and that was with temps 31-32 during the snow. On the immediate coast it didn’t accumulate because temps were stuck at 34-35. We can definitely get accumulation from this if rates increase but we want to veer the wind direction to offshore and get temps down preferably to freezing or below. On the coast that will be hard. 

The only advantage this time is we don't have to worry about mid level warming but going to be hard to get down to freezing with light-moderate precip,

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