March 11th storm threat

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still sorta bullish with WWA calling for 3-5 inches for immediate NW suburbs. 

Yeah they will do their slow take-down process. 

[RU848789]

Surprised nobody posted the updated snowfall maps from the NWS with the significant cutbacks, especially along/S of 78 (i.e., my house sadly). Here's what I just posted elsewhere and to my email list...

Well, the NWS-Philly cut back fairly significantly on snowfall forecasts along/south of 78, even dropping the advisories for the Lehigh Valley, Hunterdon and Somerset counties, decreasing their snowfall forecasts from 2-3" to about 1" and areas south of there to <1". So, unless we see some decent changes back towards more snow for areas along/S of 78, this will now very likely be a non-event for most of CNJ.  It is worth noting, however that the 6Z GFS and Euro still show 1-2" for most of CNJ, while the rest of the models show <1" or nada, so the threat isn't 100% dead for CNJ.

Advisories are still up for Morris/Warren/Sussex and the Poconos for 3-5" (but really only 1-2" is forecast for southern parts of Warren/Morris; and Monroe in the Poconos has a warning for 6-8"), while the NWS-NYC retained their advisories for western Essex, Bergen, Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee for 3-5".

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the updated snowfall maps from the NWS with the significant cutbacks, especially along/S of 78 (i.e., my house sadly). Here's what I just posted elsewhere and to my email list...

Well, the NWS-Philly cut back fairly significantly on snowfall forecasts along/south of 78, even dropping the advisories for the Lehigh Valley, Hunterdon and Somerset counties, decreasing their snowfall forecasts from 2-3" to about 1" and areas south of there to <1". So, unless we see some decent changes back towards more snow for areas along/S of 78, this will now very likely be a non-event for most of CNJ.  It is worth noting, however that the 6Z GFS and Euro still show 1-2" for most of CNJ, while the rest of the models show <1" or nada, so the threat isn't 100% dead for CNJ.

Advisories are still up for Morris/Warren/Sussex and the Poconos for 3-5" (but really only 1-2" is forecast for southern parts of Warren/Morris; and Monroe in the Poconos has a warning for 6-8"), while the NWS-NYC retained their advisories for western Essex, Bergen, Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee for 3-5".

 

Yeah the modeling weakened the norlun trough therefore less dynamic cooling. Would not be surprised with further cutbacks they do it slowly.

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the updated snowfall maps from the NWS with the significant cutbacks, especially along/S of 78 (i.e., my house sadly). Here's what I just posted elsewhere and to my email list...

Well, the NWS-Philly cut back fairly significantly on snowfall forecasts along/south of 78, even dropping the advisories for the Lehigh Valley, Hunterdon and Somerset counties, decreasing their snowfall forecasts from 2-3" to about 1" and areas south of there to <1". So, unless we see some decent changes back towards more snow for areas along/S of 78, this will now very likely be a non-event for most of CNJ.  It is worth noting, however that the 6Z GFS and Euro still show 1-2" for most of CNJ, while the rest of the models show <1" or nada, so the threat isn't 100% dead for CNJ.

Advisories are still up for Morris/Warren/Sussex and the Poconos for 3-5" (but really only 1-2" is forecast for southern parts of Warren/Morris; and Monroe in the Poconos has a warning for 6-8"), while the NWS-NYC retained their advisories for western Essex, Bergen, Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee for 3-5".

 

This will all come down to band pivots and if precip can bring BL temps into lower 30's. The main slug of precip is rain almost up to 84. After 0Z the models all have the storm pivot and the coastal gets going and really will be a nowcast, but the airmass is pretty subpar right now

[Winterweatherlover]

Latest RGEM basically all rain everyone SE of I287. What a tease this was. 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Latest RGEM basically all rain everyone SE of I287. What a tease this was. 

Not really a surprise that this won't work out though. Just not much cold air in place. Hard to get accumulating snow near the coast in mid March when you don't have solidly below normal temps. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Not really a surprise that this won't work out though. Just not much cold air in place. Hard to get accumulating snow near the coast in mid March when you don't have solidly below normal temps. 

This is snow in Jan or February

Sad

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not really a surprise that this won't work out though. Just not much cold air in place. Hard to get accumulating snow near the coast in mid March when you don't have solidly below normal temps. 

This is failing cause the Norlun is weaker than modeled earlier.

 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is snow in Jan or February

Sad

Would be fine in March too if the west coast was not having their 95/96 winter. They were due.

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the updated snowfall maps from the NWS with the significant cutbacks, especially along/S of 78 (i.e., my house sadly). Here's what I just posted elsewhere and to my email list...

Well, the NWS-Philly cut back fairly significantly on snowfall forecasts along/south of 78, even dropping the advisories for the Lehigh Valley, Hunterdon and Somerset counties, decreasing their snowfall forecasts from 2-3" to about 1" and areas south of there to <1". So, unless we see some decent changes back towards more snow for areas along/S of 78, this will now very likely be a non-event for most of CNJ.  It is worth noting, however that the 6Z GFS and Euro still show 1-2" for most of CNJ, while the rest of the models show <1" or nada, so the threat isn't 100% dead for CNJ.

Advisories are still up for Morris/Warren/Sussex and the Poconos for 3-5" (but really only 1-2" is forecast for southern parts of Warren/Morris; and Monroe in the Poconos has a warning for 6-8"), while the NWS-NYC retained their advisories for western Essex, Bergen, Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee for 3-5".

 

 

 

It's possible that further cutbacks will be coming with this afternoon's package, especially for the coastal plain. The ensembles were never really on board (low agreement). The National Blend of Models was very persistent in showing low amounts. The most aggressive NBM numbers were 1.0" for Allentown and 0.6" for NYC (now 0.2" and 0.0" respectively on the 14z run). The Norlun trough was a wildcard, but they are very difficult to predict.

[Winterweatherlover]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is snow in Jan or February

Sad

Probably but part of the problem is primary is pumping in warm air and secondary is way too Far East to help us. A colder air mass would have helped a lot though but setup is less than ideal. 

[Winterweatherlover]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is failing cause the Norlun is weaker than modeled earlier.

 

Yea as myself and others have stated norluns almost never work out here. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Probably but part of the problem is primary is pumping in warm air and secondary is way too Far East to help us. A colder air mass would have helped a lot though but setup is less than ideal. 

La Nina = NS dominance. Especially I'm a historic year for the WC like this one.

[mikem81]

GFS looks interesting 10Z to 15Z tomorrow morning...

[mikem81]

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It’s the gfs with no support, toss imo but hope to be surprised. 

[weatherpruf]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be fine in March too if the west coast was not having their 95/96 winter. They were due.

What they are getting is way past our 95/96. People there are seriously being harmed by the snow. I heard a guy on NPR saying he can't get fresh food and the supermarket roof caved in; and his roof is straining. He said it is not fun. Price you pay for living in the boonies where there is one supermarket and not enough road crews. I'll take the city, thanks. Except during hurricanes and tropical storms.....

[sussexcountyobs]

They still have the 6" over my house on those maps. I'll take it!

[donsutherland1]

12z HREF:

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's possible that further cutbacks will be coming with this afternoon's package, especially for the coastal plain. The ensembles were never really on board (low agreement). The National Blend of Models was very persistent in showing low amounts. The most aggressive NBM numbers were 1.0" for Allentown and 0.6" for NYC (now 0.2" and 0.0" respectively on the 14z run). The Norlun trough was a wildcard, but they are very difficult to predict.

There's a 14z run lol?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

La Nina = NS dominance. Especially I'm a historic year for the WC like this one.

whatever the enso was this year would have been horrible for us.

also enso is only 20% of a factor in our weather

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be fine in March too if the west coast was not having their 95/96 winter. They were due.

In March you really want to be in the mountains.

My house in the Poconos has 6 inches of snow from the last storm lol.

Anyone who really loves snow that much should live in the mountains.

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There's a 14z run lol?

 

The NBM comes out hourly.

[Tatamy]

Light snow falling in the Harrisburg area with this system coming in from the west.

[NJwx85]

12z Euro has a very sharp cutoff South and East of I-87-I-287 in Southern NY.

Lots of mixing and sleet for Bergen, SE Rockland and Westchester.

Mostly rain for the immediate coast.

[Tatamy]

Light snow breaking out currently across northeastern Pennsylvania especially in the higher elevations.

[snywx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

12z HREF:

Encouraging to see.. 6-8” is a def possibility here. Nice appetizer before the main event 

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2 pm right on schedule.

Had 6" in the Poconos from the last event

As I noted in my other post there is light snow starting to fall in many places across northeastern PA.  It is not sticking anywhere that I looked.  

[Sn0waddict]

Honestly not expecting more than snow showers at the end of this storm in my area.

[Tatamy]

With this mild antecedent air mass in place anyone expecting 10:1 ratios with this event is going to be disappointed.