Rjay Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Have at it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Gfs a tick north and a tick east, good for western zones. Elsewhere looks similar. Could be a nice little storm for some. SNE not looking good as this thing scoots east and does not climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The trend is not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx-Nyc2002 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:19 AM, SnowGoose69 said: This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too. To quote Rihanna “ story of my life Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Rain changing to snow with borderline temps. 12z NAM and RGEM would be maybe an inch for the NYC area, with 2 to 3 to the north and west. Snow will be falling saturday morning but it doesn't look impressive right now. Hopefully it will trend a little better over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:49 PM, weatherpruf said: Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago.... Expand He was always a good-looking guy but it's amazing what a little money and surgery can do. I remember the ladies having a thing for Storm Field back in the day also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:49 PM, weatherpruf said: Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago.... Expand Maybe white rain, don’t see this as mostly rain at least away from the south shore/north of I78 in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Short range models trending colder…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:52 PM, Allsnow said: Short range models trending colder…. Expand Gfs further south/colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The snow band looks like it's setting up generally in the same area as the last storm a couple days ago. This has more juice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:52 PM, Allsnow said: Short range models trending colder…. Expand Cold is helpful but also needs to be not really light or it’ll just be white rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:52 PM, Allsnow said: Gfs further south/colder Expand About 2 inches for nyc 3-5 NNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 We actually a further NW and stronger coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 South with the primary 12Z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I mean it's not great but could be worse, not really seeing why people are saying mainly rain, pretty good agreement on at least >1 inch snow for CPK. It's also mostly at night/early morning so sun angle shouldn't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:02 PM, mikem81 said: We actually a further NW and stronger coastal... Expand Yes if we had that this could have been a much bigger event but it doesn't seem that's the way it is trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 barely a flake into even NW zones before the storm scoots due east under us. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:06 PM, Winterweatherlover said: I mean it's not great but could be worse, not really seeing why people are saying mainly rain, pretty good agreement on at least >1 inch snow for CPK. It's also mostly at night/early morning so sun angle shouldn't be an issue. Expand On that run there is NO snow for CPK On 3/8/2023 at 4:06 PM, Winterweatherlover said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:08 PM, cleetussnow said: On that run there is NO snow for CPK Expand Guess it depends what maps you look at, I use pivotal and have found the pivotal kuchera maps to be pretty reasonable in marginal events. Either way it's hard to see a blanking. There's going to be some snow and it's going to be falling primarily between 1 am and 7 am unless there are new changes to the setup inside of 72 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 14th is under and not very interesting on the 12z GFS VERBATIM. That one is still all over the place on the models, so nothing to be taken verbatim. 6 days out. But this is kind of close in terms of capture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The areas that have the best upper level atmospheric dynamics conducive for snow (BANDING), will see the most snow. There, I said it first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:18 PM, cleetussnow said: 14th is under and not very interesting on the 12z GFS VERBATIM. That one is still all over the place on the models, so nothing to be taken verbatim. 6 days out. But this is kind of close in terms of capture: Expand Both CMC and Euro are similar in terms of 2nd wave which is a coastal. GFS on it's own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:42 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Both CMC and Euro are similar in terms of 2nd wave which is a coastal. GFS on it's own right now. Expand The GFS not being so wrapped up isn't a bad thing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:46 PM, winterwx21 said: UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation. Expand Sorry if this is too blunt but I honestly could care less that model is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 4:49 PM, SnoSki14 said: The GFS not being so wrapped up isn't a bad thing right now Expand Agreed. Timing is the name of the game and this was off by a couple of ticks. A later capture is better. Too soon and its a runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 GEFS are further south from 6z. Suppression for CPK a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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