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March 11th storm threat


Rjay
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Rain changing to snow with borderline temps. 12z NAM and RGEM would be maybe an inch for the NYC area, with 2 to 3 to the north and west. Snow will be falling saturday morning but it doesn't look impressive right now. Hopefully it will trend a little better over the next couple days. 

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago....

He was always a good-looking guy but it's amazing what a little money and surgery can do.  I remember the ladies having a thing for Storm Field back in the day also.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago....

Maybe white rain, don’t see this as mostly rain at least away from the south shore/north of I78 in NJ. 

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I mean it's not great but could be worse, not really seeing why people are saying mainly rain, pretty good agreement on at least >1 inch snow for CPK. It's also mostly at night/early morning so sun angle shouldn't be an issue.  

On that run there is NO snow for CPK

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

 

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4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

On that run there is NO snow for CPK

 

Guess it depends what maps you look at, I use pivotal and have found the pivotal kuchera maps to be pretty reasonable in marginal events. Either way it's hard to see a blanking. There's going to be some snow and it's going to be falling primarily between 1 am and 7 am unless there are new changes to the setup inside of 72 hours.    

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21 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

14th is under and not very interesting on the 12z GFS VERBATIM. That one is still all over the place on the models, so nothing to be taken verbatim.  6 days out.


But this is kind of close in terms of capture:

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

Both CMC and Euro are similar in terms of 2nd wave which is a coastal. GFS on it's own right now. 

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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation.

Sorry if this is too blunt but I honestly could care less that model is terrible. 

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