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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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6 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Do also have this guy at NBC who I have never heard of, throwing the caution flags for the coast.

Screenshot 2023-03-11 at 12-18-36 Justin Godynick NBC on Twitter.png

Run me around and make me hurt again and again.

But I'll still sing you love songs, written in the letter of your name.

The rain is gonna come, oh it surely looks like rain.

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7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

You gonna go? I haven't been in years and I live like 2 miles away lol. It's just so busy. 

Just don’t go on weekends after it snows.  Or go this time of year when school groups are done.   It can be fantastic for a small hill.   If I have a snow day and I can get out of my driveway I will head over

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The 925s delay snow here until later Tuesday but once it happens it may really go to town for a while.  I am totally clueless on what to expect given the uncertainty but  it does remind me of December 1992.

The NBC forecast did mention that Tuesday night would be the time the coast could get it's accumulations.

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So it seems like the icon and Ukie bring the higher snow totals into Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, where the GFS GEFS and Euro have the bigger totals from Massachusetts down into Connecticut. Hard to know who's going to be right, but I would hedge my bet on the bigger global models over the smaller ones. At this point. It's a wait and see for another day or so

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.

Ryan.... Really hoping that we get one big guy to end this lame winter. Although my husband said to me today that he really hopes it's not that big because he has to drive into work at the hospital. I told him I'll dig a trail for him lol

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.

It's really just a matter whether it's w CT or e CT that gets the jack at this point, I would say. I'm concerned for power outages. This is man snow. 

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Just now, TalcottWx said:

It's really just a matter whether it's w CT or e CT that gets the jack at this point, I would say. I'm concerned for power outages. This is man snow. 

Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills. 

 

image.thumb.png.5a8d25840da11e8c0fe0b19edc0d38a4.png

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills. 

 

image.thumb.png.5a8d25840da11e8c0fe0b19edc0d38a4.png

Sounds like Euro is your choice of the models or there. When you say hills, you just mean Northwest hills and the hills of tolland, or even some of the smaller hills in the Farmington area and areas to the east of the river?

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The 925s delay snow here until later Tuesday but once it happens it may really go to town for a while.  I am totally clueless on what to expect given the uncertainty but  it does remind me of December 1992.

The 12z GFS has 925s below 0°C for us throughout the precip, which is why it shows 2.7" in QPF and 27" of snow here.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't seen the 12z GFS ...and tossing ICON

After spending time looking over this stuff ... I don't believe we will have as many ptype contentions as much as the guidance cinema et al are cute with, if that blend of the 00z GGEM/Euro were to work out - the course of lesser regret. 

This thing will get a toehold on "cold momentum" prior to dawn on Tuesday, and then the juggernaut dynamics of this particular example of closing mid level centers (a burst of core UVM/frontogenics from 850 to 700 mb from T crashing in the deep layer) over top, will take a 38/30 type entry temp and obliterated down to 31.9/31.9 Willamantic CT to Bedford MA in quick work,

 ... while a lot of formed weather forecasts are dinking around with rain changing to snow timing tedium. 

This might be a situation where too much technology actually obfuscates matters, when just a -4 850 mb thermal layout/event entry along said axis, then processing under close mlv centers SE of said axis, is plenty from orbit - for me anyway... 

 

That is Tip-speak for "it will generate it's own cold".

 

35 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

fwiw the  NBC Boston has put out a preliminary snow map and they do seem to buying the bigger totals as modeled. Large swath of 8-12 and 18-24.

Makes for better box office.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The 925s delay snow here until later Tuesday but once it happens it may really go to town for a while.  I am totally clueless on what to expect given the uncertainty but  it does remind me of December 1992.

I'm not sure where you stand on snowfall totals but at my age I would love to see an all day heavy snowfall that I could enjoy looking at, and then the following morning not have to clear the snow to resume normal activity.  I would really like to see the proportions of posters here that depend on others to clear the snow so that they can get to work as opposed to those that depend on their moms or dads.

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Just now, wkd said:

I'm not sure where you stand on snowfall totals but at my age I would love to see an all day heavy snowfall that I could enjoy looking at, and then the following morning not have to clear the snow to resume normal activity.  I would really like to see the proportions of posters here that depend on others to clear the snow so that they can get to work as opposed to those that depend on their moms or dads.

Yeah I can leave it-no need to go anywhere but I will use my snowblower and do some shoveling at my leisure.

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