CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Canadian tucks into the Cape. Buries CT into 495. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Canadian tucks into the Cape. Buries CT into 495. I ran that one form my basement 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I wouldn't be sweating what the GFS has at this lead, I'm not totally sold that its replaced the Euro as some may think it has. This is certainly the type of storm potential where going crazy over model run-to-model run is not worth it. These setups which are highly dependent on phasing are extremely fickle. The only two features which really matter now are the handling of the pieces of energy involved. Just because some successive runs at this stage don't show a storm doesn't mean it's a trend and just b/c successive runs show a storm doesn't mean a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Meeting captive at work but that ICON solution at 500 mb argues for a capture/stall/pummel scenario for somewhere 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I ran that one form my basement I hope to run it from my basement inside of 24hrs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 This would work for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I am much more concerned about ptype in this system than a whiff....GFS is classic SE on these partial phase scenarios. Notice how all other guidance continues to slowly amp up (sans the Euro which was so zonked yesterday, it has come a little SE) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Move it 30 miles east. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I am much more concerned about ptype in this system than a whiff....GFS is classic SE on these partial phase scenarios. Notice how all other guidance continues to slowly amp up (sans the Euro which was so zonked yesterday, it has come a little SE) Yep. We would both sign for GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meeting captive at work but that ICON solution at 500 mb argues for a capture/stall/pummel scenario for somewhere 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, CT Rain said: But damn it's close to a bomb. trending toward sooner amplitude - im sure you can see that just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I am much more concerned about ptype in this system than a whiff....GFS is classic SE on these partial phase scenarios. Notice how all other guidance continues to slowly amp up (sans the Euro which was so zonked yesterday, it has come a little SE) At least we'll have a cold llvl airmass with respect to climo. You just hope that we can minimize diurnal warmth as much as possible. Coastal locations will be quite the challenge obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would work for many. Nice... Snowfall maps with the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reminds me of the UK and Korean last night....compromise between that and EURO would be sweet. Korean? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: At least we'll have a cold llvl airmass with respect to climo. You just hope that we can minimize diurnal warmth as much as possible. Coastal locations will be quite the challenge obviously. It was 64.6 degrees as 1:32 pm on March 28th up on the Wx Lab monitor at UML, 1997 3 days later, there was a 18" of blue glory ...with 30" across Metro west of Boston 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: At least we'll have a cold llvl airmass with respect to climo. You just hope that we can minimize diurnal warmth as much as possible. Coastal locations will be quite the challenge obviously. No good high to hold in the airmass....which is ok...I wouldn't call it all that cold., but good enough. On the GGEM, the 925 temps start off around -4C to -5C over SNE....during the CCB, they have warmed to -2C or so...and it's definitely not an inverted airmass where the low levels are much colder than aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol This season has gotten to you. You’ll need to crush a few softballs in June if this ends up a dud. Sure has....Hopefully we are hitting softballs in May. CMC looks great, lets just roll with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Yeah I don't know Wiz. Even on the GFS the flow goes Se to 925 and is mild to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I support the Canuck model. Is there a Tim Horton's around here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Korean? Lol Yea...I just consider it another ensemble member.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Yeah my assessment wasn't the best. I was looking at 850 temp anomalies and also was looking at bit ahead of when things would be going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Probably riding the line here on the Canadian, but honestly, I’d take my chances at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would work for many. "many" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 It's early but I don't see anything to break the seasonal trend for coastal rain. If I was a betting man ( and I am ) I wouldn't bet against this streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Nice... Snowfall maps with the CMC? fwiw 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: fwiw Yay 3 inches! Biggest storm of the year! Thank god I go back to work soon. This winter has been tiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 GEFS look like just east of the Cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 12z GEFS is west of the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 CMC looks good, let's keep it going. GEFS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 GEFS a little progressive though. Captures in GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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