WxWatcher007 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe with more of NE flow the shadow won’t be as profound. It’s those deep easterly fetches that hurt the valley I have no choice but to hedge a little more conservative imby. A slight shift with more easterly action and I slot badly. Not saying I expect that, but I know my climo lol. Fantastic trend overnight though. You never know for certain how things will go, but I was with you yesterday when 12z wanted to plow west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 32 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Horrible for many Somehow it still crushes SE Mass with over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I have no choice but to hedge a little more conservative imby. A slight shift with more easterly action and I slot badly. Not saying I expect that, but I know my climo lol. Fantastic trend overnight though. You never know for certain how things will go, but I was with you yesterday when 12z wanted to plow west. Certainly hoping that everyone here gets a man beast storm. Even Ryan 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 What site do folks use for 6z euro That starts running around 6:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 SV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: Oh my. Would feel better with some decent cold around, but what a beast that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 would be funny if it stalled too far east, and best banding missed CT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said: The Kuchera map has an interesting 41 spot right over @Kitz Craver. Lol. NEMO reincarnated! I just took a 2hr shower… LMFAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that.In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilitiesof >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisorycriteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.Yeah, so I'd have to say It's game over for coastal CT. I've never seen OKX wrong, when they have a strong conviction like that. If I remember correctly in Dec, 92, the southern quarter of CT was all rain....when interior half was all snow. If the gradient is similar, maybe they will be right. Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said: The Kuchera map has an interesting 41 spot right over @Kitz Craver. Lol. That’s from Mom smiling down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: would be funny if it stalled too far east, and best banding missed CT Nope since 2015 we expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This seems like a Juno repeat if the models shift slightly more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 - 2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%, indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues. Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT, and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT. These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles. Perfect. We know their stored history of forecasting big events… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Perfect. We know their stored history of forecasting big events… Yes…that should guarantee a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oh my. Would feel better with some decent cold around, but what a beast that is. If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 That’s from Mom smiling downThat 41" is right over my turf! I hope OKX is wrong this time. Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Spanks45 said: If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around. I think you’re fine if the modeling from 0z is any indication. This bombing if verified as a lot of the modeling at 0z showed, is lights out for all away from the immediate coast. Last night is a joke compared to what’s being depicted currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, CTSkywarn said: That 41" is right over my turf! I hope OKX is wrong this time. Sent from my motorola one 5G ace using Tapatalk Wrong this time….they’re wrong on big events more than they’re right lol. If modeling holds through 12z…they’ll change their tune. They’re waiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around. Just hoping we can get under some really good dynamics. I'd offer my left nut, but I already sacrificed it for Feb '13. Can't offer up the other or I'll look like Lord Varys. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 - 2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%, indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues. Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT, and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT. These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles. Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I think you’re fine if the modeling from 0z is any indication. This bombing if verified as a lot of the modeling at 0z showed, is lights out for all away from the immediate coast. Last night is a joke compared to what’s being depicted currently. Certainly, different beast for sure. We are going to need those rates and hopefully some nighttime snowfall to aid in maximizing snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Certainly, different beast for sure. We are going to need those rates and hopefully some nighttime snowfall to aid in maximizing snowfall accumulations. I’m not worried at all if that scenario from 0z (on all the modeling) plays out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6z euro bring the low over me. Not great for eastern areas but good for CT to Dave. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Stalls over me haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m not worried at all if that scenario from 0z (on all the modeling) plays out… RGW on his first call. Hope you get a big one there JD. Helps numb the sting of losing a loved done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Still rolling at 90 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro bring the low over me. Not great for eastern areas but good for CT to Dave. I’d mount it 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: RGW on his first call. Hope you get a big one there JD. Helps numb the sting of losing a loved done. Thanks so much Luke…yes this would be fun…been a rough week here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Still rolling at 90 hours Enormous precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: If last night was a preview of what is coming early next week with regards to lack of cold air, then elevation will be key. Obviously intensity will aid in some of the cooling and i am sure everyone will see some flakes. Here, during heavier echos I dipped to 32.4⁰, lighter echos bounced me right back up to 33.5⁰. Classic March snowfall, unless of course there is cold air around. I disagree. They are not comparable, intensity is everything with these marginal set ups. Completely different animal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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