WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Johnno said: Hopefully we can hold some semblance of this look and the east trend doesn’t continue It’s been all over the place…it was a west trend all day, then it stopped, and reversed. It’s been everywhere lol. Last night at this time it looked very good too, now it’s back again. Getting closer now, and the big storm idea looks to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Luke, that was a fabulous run. I realize your west of me…but that was a region wide blizzard. Youll never know exactly where the exact banding sets up…central areas, or west or east, but verbatim it’s excellent. It's a qpf monster. If we could tick it 1C cooler and flip to snow sooner....oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, wxsniss said: After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 It's has me at about 30 inches so it will probably change, regardless should be good for most of us and glad I got my snowblower running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The euro nukes the mid levels to the SE. that’s what you want to see I think Boston area could use another tick SE, but better 00z runs for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's a qpf monster. If we could tick it 1C cooler and flip to snow sooner....oh boy. It Could happen. Liking what I’m seeing though at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics. In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS stalls east of the elbow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Closes off H7 islands to the elbow on east. Let’s hope these hold at 12z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS stalls east of the elbow. Wow..nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS stalls east of the elbow. Contrast to 12z when most members went inland: 0z 90hr: 0z 96hr: Several 966 members in there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Anyone got the QPF mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro nukes the mid levels to the SE. that’s what you want to see I think Boston area could use another tick SE, but better 00z runs for sure. I don't want it further south...I'm already on the edge of LBS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Anyone got the QPF mean? For QPF mean, note this is 24hr so some far west QPF is cut off: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 0z runs were great hope that continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 hours ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Lol - it’s called watching every meteo saying the same thing. So it’s this forum vs those that forecast for a living JoeBlow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 sref plumes should be fun to look at later today.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just caught up. Awesome times ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Storm is on east coast at 48 hours, she's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Should be an interesting 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Right up the gullet! Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Still certainly within realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Still certainly within realm of possibility moved east a bit though.. highly doubtful but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Woke up to use bathroom lol . Had to check models . I’m pretty certain , This is really Still up in the air . Its clear the lead S vort has kept trending a bit SE for last 24 hours and I haven’t seen and end to that completely at 6z , this has also led to a later start across most guidance for those EOR. Most of this season things have not been nailed down and locked at 72 hours and I don’t see this as being any different. I think a (>980 MSLP) N stream dominant system is likely in the cards or more of a too late phase , this is simply due to the trend in S stream that I would hedge continues . If that trend ends then I could see a 0z euro solution that is favorable for a good deal of the forum but that is a thread the needle type of set up, *especially given the airmass and BL temps , but certainly can occur . I would Think least likely at this juncture is a reversal of S stream trend in a significant fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html jesus (ct) id give my left nut for 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html Go big or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 - 2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%, indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues. Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT, and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT. These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, wxsniss said: You guys are cute. OMG!! CRUSHER!! It’s a KU!! DAMAGE!! PERFECT RUN!! Final Output: 10” Ray Call: 10” This winter has really Really Screwed with you guys. ONLY Ever use those words for Widespread 24”-40” Storms like 1996, 1997, 2005, 2013, and 2015. Not a Moderate R/S infected storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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