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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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2 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Hopefully we can hold some semblance of this look and the east trend doesn’t continue 

It’s been all over the place…it was a west trend all day, then it stopped, and reversed. It’s been everywhere lol. Last night at this time it looked very good too, now it’s back again. Getting closer now, and the big storm idea looks to be there. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luke, that was a fabulous run. I realize your west of me…but that was a region wide blizzard. Youll never know exactly where the exact banding sets up…central areas, or west or east, but verbatim it’s excellent. 

It's a qpf monster. If we could tick it 1C cooler and flip to snow sooner....oh boy. 

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After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

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Just now, wxsniss said:

After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

Euro definitely could be wrong. But the trend towards a more eastern solution over 12z-18z-0z today makes me think improved sampling of NRN stream (which is now mostly over land) played a role. SRN stream I believe will be fully sampled over land Saturday, so we'll see how the 12z suite plays out tomorrow. IF SRN stream samples more robust, I think there's potential for more southeast tics.

In any case, good to see the whiffs are completely off the table tonight.

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Woke up to use bathroom lol . Had to check models . I’m pretty certain , This is really Still up in the air .

Its clear the lead S vort has kept trending a bit SE for last 24 hours and I haven’t seen and end to that completely at 6z , this has also led to a later start across most guidance for those EOR.
 

Most of this season things have not been nailed down and locked at 72 hours and I don’t see this as being any different.  I think a (>980 MSLP) N stream dominant system is likely in the cards or more of a too late phase , this is simply due to the trend in S stream that I would hedge continues . 

If that trend ends then I could see a 0z euro solution that is favorable for a good deal of the forum but that is a thread the needle type of set up, *especially given the airmass and BL temps , but certainly can occur .
 

I would Think least likely at this juncture is a reversal of S stream trend in a significant fashion 

 

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OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that.

In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 -
2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%,
indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues.
Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory
criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT,
and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT.
These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.
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2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

image.thumb.png.473fe381ec273c3353c8f5fbdc292410.png

 

You guys are cute.  
 

OMG!!  CRUSHER!!  It’s a KU!!  DAMAGE!!  PERFECT RUN!!

Final Output: 10”  

Ray Call: 10”  

 

This winter has really Really Screwed with you guys.  ONLY Ever use those words for Widespread 24”-40” Storms like 1996, 1997, 2005, 2013, and 2015.  Not a Moderate R/S infected storm.  

  • Haha 1
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