The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe…certainly close. Something like the NAM just a little further south would be pretty epic too.
 

Essentially what you’re going for if we’re trying for the unicorn is to get that midlevel flow out of the east before it warms above 0C and at the same time we’re turning the lower levels more NE with a stall somewhere south of the islands. You need an entirely closed upper level going underneath LI elongated east-west. 

Interesting that the low needs to be elongated for best results, why?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Think you'll have enough for a first outlook after EPS tonight? 

Working on it now...I had to scrap everything after 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Interesting that the low needs to be elongated for best results, why?

 

Stops the southerly flow and turns it easterly to truncate warming.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Working on it now...I had to scrap everything after 12z.

Such a finicky and explosive set-up, would be cool to see you pull a coup

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Such a finicky and explosive set-up, would be cool to see you pull a coup

This is the most difficult one I have had...the phasing is so nuanced.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the most difficult one I have had...the phasing is so nuanced.

Compound that with pessimistic seasonal memory and terrible BL conditions... big uncertainty. Gives you a sense of why Fisher hasn't tweeted in 3 days, hah

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its related to scooter's appendage becoming less prominent.

Had to dig back pages to clarify that lol

Just looked at 0z NAM... that would be aiming for history. 4/97 ULL emerged off Delaware.

[weathafella]

Uncle is too warm at 925 for snow in a large area until hour 96.  Now perhaps it collapses around hour 91-92 resulting in much more snow and I can’t get the data drilled down to that level.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Had to dig back pages to clarify that lol

Just looked at 0z NAM... that would be aiming for history. 4/97 ULL emerged off Delaware.

Where is the DGEX to get my rocks off when I need it

[Amped]

After all these years the NAM 84 is still acts like the NAM 84 and people still talk about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Amped said:

After all these years the NAM 84 is still acts like the NAM 84 and people still talk about it.

Just because people talk about it doesn't mean they buy it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s hard to lean snowy in a lot of eastern ma until it’s literally right in your face, given how fragile the setup is.

 

Could be nothing, could Be a foot or more. A lot needs to go right though, that is a fact 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stops the southerly flow and turns it easterly to truncate warming.

Correct. If the upper low wasn’t elongated when it goes south of us, it would tuck everything in closer and the flow in the MLs would be more SE and that’s going to be useless. The elongated low keeps that baroclinic zone further south (and east). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct. If the upper low wasn’t elongated when it goes south of us, it would tuck everything in closer and the flow in the MLs would be more SE and that’s going to be useless. The elongated low keeps that baroclinic zone further south (and east). 

That would mean timing the phase perfectly because it tends to elongate during the phasing process, when that inverted trough results form the conduit of energy feeding in from the N stream.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would mean timing the phase perfectly because it tends to elongate during the phasing process, when that inverted trough results form the conduit of energy feeding in from the N stream.

Also would mean that the southern s/w needs to take some primacy and stretch this thing?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Also would mean that the southern s/w needs to take some primacy and stretch this thing?

Yes. If the N stream is more assertive, the phased system will develop further NW......more dominant s stream and its further east. Its about how the parcels of energy interact while vying for proxy during the phasing process.

[Henry's Weather]

EC initialized

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

EC initialized

Does that mean more snow in Rhode Island?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UP ALL NIGHT

Dying here

[TheSnowman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that mean more snow in Rhode Island?

  

 

As I sit here, the plane Still being iced at my Connection in MDW, waiting on a 3.5 hour flight to start.  I won’t be at my hotel until 5:30am EST at this rate.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dying here

I knew you'd get that lol

[MJO812]

I'm jealous 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm jealous 

Make your picks

[Amped]

EC hasn't changed much from 18z at 72hrs. Maybe a tick slower.

[Henry's Weather]

[40/70 Benchmark]

South of islands at hr 84

[Henry's Weather]

[weathafella]

Wow!  A walloping from a turd in 2 runs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Better run, but struggling to get precip into my area....WTF

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Further east, huge hit from HFD points NE.