40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it goes pure northern stream, this ends up a Catskills to Adirondacks storm. The southern vort is the only thing that keeps this a bit east initially. Not as big of an event in that case, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 54 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: But I thought you said us peeps in the Boston metro shouldn't sweat it? And were so adamant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I don’t know…All these different runs look pretty decent here…WOR in a decent spot right now. This is in that weird stage now. Similarly two days ago, there was zero precip coming tonight from this first one, and I was told it was dead-and gone from pros on here. Now somehow, GFS HAS almost .8” coming. likewise This one is far from figured out, just like tonight’s was deemed dead on arrival too. Now look…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it goes pure northern stream, this ends up a Catskills to Adirondacks storm. The southern vort is the only thing that keeps this a bit east initially. Models seem to be all over the place. Do you think once this first storm pulls out it will setup a final solid run for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Ya'll didn't see the writing on the wall days ago, when the EPS had a sizable amount of members hugging or even inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Ya'll didn't see the writing on the wall days ago, when the EPS had a sizable amount of members hugging or even inland? Why would you assume a minority of the members are correct. The number of inland lows actually reduced in subsequent runs (only to recently come back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bet you a chicken treat it won't? Yeah there’s no way that’s happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My point is It’s not tracking up the CTRV like the 84 hour Reggie . With such tight clustering across the board over the elbow or at least mid cape.. it’s going to snow west of that track And also don’t see Ensembles still look quite good for many? We’re not at the point where we switch over to operational runs. That’s probably more like tomorrow afternoon. I don’t understand all of the moaning. I’ve never thought this was going to be that big up here though. We get shadowed and down sloped in these weird angle storms sometimes. But western New England to me and probably a good bit of eastern New England should have a lot of fun as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 If you are anywhere west of the track you are going to pound snow .. ala GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If you are anywhere west of the track you are going to pound snow Hoping for that down here in Trumbull Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Ya'll didn't see the writing on the wall days ago, when the EPS had a sizable amount of members hugging or even inland? I saw the writing on the wall when I saw a lack of a high to the north, but I definitely got sucked in some with some of the Euro runs that had the low over the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not as big of an event in that case, though. Correct, it would still be a decent event for them but likely not a 2-3 foot juggernaut. It’ll be interesting to see if the southern stream comes back a bit stronger either tonight or tomorrows 12z runs. That will be key for most of us in SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 If it's going to suck, at least be warm enough to melt the rest of the pack I have so I can do yard work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: And also don’t see Ensembles still look quite good for many? We’re not at the point where we switch over to operational runs. That’s probably more like tomorrow afternoon. I don’t understand all of the moaning. I’ve never thought this was going to be that big up here though. We get shadowed and down sloped in these weird angle storms sometimes. But western New England to me and probably a good bit of eastern New England should have a lot of fun as it stands now. There’s a lot of posters today ( some I’m surprised at) thinking this won’t take the clustered elbow/ cape / Climo favored track . 18z GFs already started the tic east . More to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of posters today ( some I’m surprised at) thinking this won’t take the clustered elbow/ cape / Climo favored track . 18z GFs already started the tic east . More to follow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim. congrats Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Gefs is awful for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: We take. If This Occurred, EVEN if I didn’t come home, there are NOT Nearly Enough Pejorative Terms in the Dictionary for me to be spewing on this board. 15” in NW RI, around Boston, ORH, 2 Feet in NE CT, All of Western MA… 4” for me. Ohhh Lordy Lord Don’t let that happen. That’s December 25-26, 2002 Level Insanity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I’m actually shocked at the emotions in here more than anything from some. I think the east and far east folks have reason for some concern…but I don’t think this is a done deal for anybody, or even close to a final solution, or done moving around at all yet. Keep cool, and let’s see what transpires after this(supposed non storm with an inch or even an inch plus of qpf for some WOR) passes through the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why would you assume a minority of the members are correct. The number of inland lows actually reduced in subsequent runs (only to recently come back) There have been many gfs and eps members over SE MA or much farther west, really. speaking over days time and not a single run. I know you're cracked at this stuff so I'll defer. But jmo the background stuff is pretty solid, marginal airmass and etc, those things aren't changing too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is awful for many Well the OP Was very good for many…so I’ll take the OP for now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Getting my haircut in preparation for the storm. Don’t need all this hair adding excess weight while I’m standing outside having heavy, wet snow sticking to my head. Don’t need vertebrae damage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim. Total snow depth maps over here like Could be a thump outside of 495, but oof 21" at 10:1 in ORH equating out to 6 on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: That clown map brings up bad memories of smoking virga while watching 12/92 playing out to my near south. But I can't complain after how things have been the last few weeks up here compared to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol You know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well the OP Was very good for many…so I’ll take the OP for now lol. GEFS are even better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexclone Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 54 minutes ago, dryslot said: We take. And we take our 6-7", though it would pinch a bit knowing that 4 times that much fell less than 40 miles away. Shades of Feb 13 and Christmas night 2002. Will the qpf cutoff be that dramatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 This worked well last storm but over/under 6" in my hood? (last storm 6.2" while NWS forecast 10"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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