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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage.

I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in.

Do you mean further west?

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next run will be different anyway. So many swings. 

 

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

We’re unquestionably approaching the crescendo of model cinema for the winter. It’s honestly exciting. 

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Weighted six-model consensus track would be eastern LI to PVD to 50n BOS to 50e PWM, consensus central pressure 982 mb. I noticed JMA 12z was 10 mb weaker than 00z and close to GEM for track. Seems like present state of play is 70% chance snow line would be along that consensus track. Maybe one in three chance of a track further east across some portion of se MA, improving snow chances and potential totals towards 20-30 inch jackpots ORH to CON. 

I do foresee a southward shift of 100 miles in the developmental phases, and would not currently make a first call based only on the Euro. 

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23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Do you mean further west?

No it’s happening closer to us and overwhelming the southern stream…we actually want it to start dropping down a little further west to let the southern stream pinwheel around…kind of delicate though because if you drop it too quickly far west, then it still rips everything into the interior. 
 

We need the Goldilocks scenario. 

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