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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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EPS probably doesn't reflect that kind of antic ... 

It's a pretty gnarly continuity hiccup so ... meh... doesn't really factor as much for me personally.  I rather like the GGEM/GFS et al of then,  now moving a deepening 500 mb center under RI latitude...

That sticks out more to me

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

What specific features should we hope for? A larger western ridge?

Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed.

 

Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks good for WOR. 

Even leaves some room for eastern ticks.....will be interesting to watch unfold at least, hopefully with us shoveling. Question is.....does this thing just keep pushing NW as we get closer and ends up slamming into the HV?

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Even leaves some room for eastern ticks.....will be interesting to watch unfold at least, hopefully with us shoveling. Question is.....does this thing just keep pushing NW as we get closer and ends up slamming into the HV?

Who knows. I’d bet on east ticks if I had to but I don’t have a good feel for this. Needle threading is sensitive. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed.

 

Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

This is key...this is why many are still in the game. It's not like we're hoping for this to slow significantly. It's not unrealistic at this stage even for that to occur. If we were needing this to slow by several hours I think it would be game over. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. 

yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed.

 

Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

Is the mechanic such that a slower phase would ultimately be what SNE wants? Eg. If N stream is slower, that matters because phase will happen later and therefore more east?

Makes me wonder if 1/25 really is a good synoptic-scale analog (for stream interaction). I don't mean to have weenie-goggles here, I just remember the storm movement was S->N and stalling because of a similar interaction

 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

This is key...this is why many are still in the game. It's not like we're hoping for this to slow significantly. It's not unrealistic at this stage even for that to occur. If we were needing this to slow by several hours I think it would be game over. 

Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage.

I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in.

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction.  Anything is still possible and I’m sure we will see many different solutions. 

Absolutely, we’ll see where the dart hits board next run. Definitely subject to change. 

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