TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, this season has unseated 2010 as my most frustrating ever. It’s always something this year, just one of those deals. We’ve lacked even the most basic ingredients in many setups this year. Stunning really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EPS probably doesn't reflect that kind of antic ... It's a pretty gnarly continuity hiccup so ... meh... doesn't really factor as much for me personally. I rather like the GGEM/GFS et al of then, now moving a deepening 500 mb center under RI latitude... That sticks out more to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 US WOR needed that violent tug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: What specific features should we hope for? A larger western ridge? Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed. Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s always something this year, just one of those deals. We’ve lacked even the most basic ingredients in many setups this year. Stunning really I knew when the UK joined the GFS just as the SW came shore, the EURO would show it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Next run will be different anyway. So many swings. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks good for WOR. Even leaves some room for eastern ticks.....will be interesting to watch unfold at least, hopefully with us shoveling. Question is.....does this thing just keep pushing NW as we get closer and ends up slamming into the HV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Gonna hold off on first call. Will do it tonight, after assessing EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I don’t really think we have much clarity on a final solution , even if we have a 6 hour trend at 12z 84 -90 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 WOR will sign for that ran all day every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Parachutes in West Hartford and rain in Tolland? Sign me up. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looks like heavy rain flashing over to heavy snow here sometime Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: Parachutes in West Hartford and rain in Tolland? Sign me up. Enjoy the shadowing while we pound fatties and feet east and west of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Spanks45 said: Even leaves some room for eastern ticks.....will be interesting to watch unfold at least, hopefully with us shoveling. Question is.....does this thing just keep pushing NW as we get closer and ends up slamming into the HV? Who knows. I’d bet on east ticks if I had to but I don’t have a good feel for this. Needle threading is sensitive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. Anything is still possible and I’m sure we will see many different solutions. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed. Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore. This is key...this is why many are still in the game. It's not like we're hoping for this to slow significantly. It's not unrealistic at this stage even for that to occur. If we were needing this to slow by several hours I think it would be game over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Airbnb in Newburg looking real good... Pound for pound the most dangerous city in the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Well shit... I am good with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good for the reservoirs, bad for the backs from shoveling. Could cause power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed. Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore. Is the mechanic such that a slower phase would ultimately be what SNE wants? Eg. If N stream is slower, that matters because phase will happen later and therefore more east? Makes me wonder if 1/25 really is a good synoptic-scale analog (for stream interaction). I don't mean to have weenie-goggles here, I just remember the storm movement was S->N and stalling because of a similar interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who knows. I’d bet on east ticks if I had to but I don’t have a good feel for this. Needle threading is sensitive. I'm worried about west ticks and roasting temps to montreal here's to hoping the euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is key...this is why many are still in the game. It's not like we're hoping for this to slow significantly. It's not unrealistic at this stage even for that to occur. If we were needing this to slow by several hours I think it would be game over. Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage. I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Pound for pound the most dangerous city in the US. Cheap! Just gotta BYOG. Bring your own gat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. Anything is still possible and I’m sure we will see many different solutions. Absolutely, we’ll see where the dart hits board next run. Definitely subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah this is so finicky with a delicate phasing setup like this. really difficult to see where this is going. you could make a case for the GFS or ECMWF. no way to know They both suck for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just waiting on EPS to confirm, then I'm out. That is so dramtic that messenger tics won't matter. No ur not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The 12z Euro is LITERALLY a Everyone have A Great Storm… but F*** Y** Rhode Island Map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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