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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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EPS ends up here though... That's D7 with an attempt at digging under L.I. ... and this is a defined deepening trend spanning several cycles as of 00z.  In other words it may yet dig another 2 deg latitude.  This is very close to being April 97 -like (not claiming analog - just at a glance).

eps_z500a_us_29.png

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28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The elephant in the room for many. At least for the beginning part of the storm, even in a favorable track.

I think you are the elephant...dropping huge turds into any punchbowl you can find.

(said with affection)

I think we are locked in on this one with details to determine, but unfortunately those details and nuances will affect the majority of our regional forum.

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28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough

but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8773600.thumb.png.fa229785f2a1a1b9f653085005c18bcd.png

what would it take to get more northern stream/cold air into this beast?

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I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. 

This. That’s kind of what the crazy 00z euro run did the other night down here in E PA with the southern vort max being the strong one. Wish we could get that lakes ULL to dive a lot farther SE. We have about 2 maybe 3 days left to see large scale changes before models lock in on a general progression.


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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

EPS looks pretty good. Definitely a Miller A moving up from Alabama area off the Delmarva then off LI. Key will be where from there. Control has a 981 near the BM. Plenty of time to watch. Hopefully convection doesn't screw this up.

Lordamercy..anything but a convective blob robbing the potential.

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Assuming this hits.. is this a Monday night / Tuesday deal.. or is it more Tuesday into Wednesday?

I thought you were all into a Saturday moderate event …and this was a Nada? :ph34r::lol:
 

Have we joined in? Nice to have you my friend. Let’s have a major, and then call it a season. 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS looks pretty good. Definitely a Miller A moving up from Alabama area off the Delmarva then off LI. Key will be where from there. Control has a 981 near the BM. Plenty of time to watch. Hopefully convection doesn't screw this up.

Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a hybrid in the good solutions because the N stream dives in. The ones that stay all s stream lack cold.

Miller C Jerry's 1960 and my first snowstorm memory. My dad holding me at 3 years old while we visited our brand new house.

C.jpg

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s usually how they go if mostly northern stream dominated but this looks hybrid or leaning more A. Embrace the hugger.

If the N stream interaction is delayed, which has been the trend, then that isn't the case...this is why we see the SLP trending east at 06z, but the parent H5 hanging on longer.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It actually trended a bit negatively with respect to that.

image.thumb.png.03631f148bb8628863f5d4bcf0c7a243.png

 

That s/w in the Great Lakes.....if that comes in stronger, then as Will alluded too...it will flood the surface to 925 with milder air. I don't want that any stronger. 

image.png.91edfdfc14fc32adc13bc62e59447c26.png

 

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