40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: That storm had a better airmass with a good high to the north funneling cooler and drier air (wetbulbing helped cool us). That low also was well to our SE. It was like 60* the day before, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 And timing matters. Having this after midnight Monday is good. Get the meat going already as daylight arrives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: And timing matters. Having this after midnight Monday is good. Get the meat going already as daylight arrives. Yea, need that CCB craaanking before th nasty sun comes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was like 60* the day before, though. '97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was like 60* the day before, though. It cooled especially off the deck all night into 3/31. So once we got lift nuking the DGZ and winds turning north, we were off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Scott, Up here it would come in after sunset so a night time storm helps. Okay, my brain is fried. If a model now forecasts say a 7pm start time with the time change on Sunday would the start time be one hour earlier or later than shown now? I think one hour later, correct? Is that one hour critical? LOL. If the model you are looking at shows a start time at 00z, I guess assume 8? LOL...I gotta say...that's probably the least of our concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: '97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas. I mean thunder started that day. The lift went absolutely bonkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 With the pressure falls predicted at the moment this thing is going to rip a hole in the troposphere and pull some cold air down with it too, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If that were the case, I would have been fired years ago as I smoked cirrus while forecasting 30" in NYC. I'm looking at this as a met, not a weenie. BTW, I never implied you would ever do this professionally.....I get you wouldn't produce a biased forecast. I am no pro, but I can tell you that emotional crap that permeates my posts on here never makes it to the blog. This is why I get pissed when someone like raindance calls me on random posts as if they are a forecast. This place is my toy, and its probably the same for you. Its a stream of (often neurotic) consciousness. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It cooled especially off the deck all night into 3/31. So once we got lift nuking the DGZ and winds turning north, we were off to the races. '97 also didnt have as much of a low appendage to the northwest...it had a minor one but it got absorbed pretty quickly when the storm bombed....that could happen in this one too, but again, that requires a max bombing out in a good location with the primary sinking a little further south....we don't want it holding on longer like on those GFS solutions overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a case where everything did go right....which is the point. This is also making further NW than that did. 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas. Right..I get that, but my point to Scott is that I don't think the airmass was much colder. Its just that we got all of the breaks that we are hoping for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: BTW, I never implied you would ever do this professionally.....I get you wouldn't produce a biased forecast. I am no pro, but I can tell you that emotional crap that permeates my posts on here never makes it to the blog. This is why I get pissed when someone like raindance calls me on random posts as if they are a forecast. This place is my toy, and its probably the same for you. Its a stream of (often neurotic) consciousness. I understand what you mean. But with my hand raised, I’m just trying to be objective. I don’t expect much here unless something changes. I’ve made peace with it. I’m definitely not trying to show emotion or bias: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The '97 parent wave space was a 'bowler' ... this is entirely a different deep layer evolution. It's a subsume scenario - I drafted annotation to point out those differences, now scrolled into the oblivion ... The only similarities this may have to that is the marginal thermal constraints. But if that were the only metric, every spring event is an analog... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '97 also didnt have as much of a low appendage to the northwest...it had a minor one but it got absorbed pretty quickly when the storm bombed....that could happen in this one too, but again, that requires a max bombing out in a good location with the primary sinking a little further south....we don't want it holding on longer like on those GFS solutions overnight. I mean look at this. 4:30 3/31/97. Look at this wall of convective precip running into a below 0C column from nrn CT, nrn RI, and just south of Boston. Can tell by the smoother echoes. Just an effing firehose. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I'm sitting here looking at that image, and glad I am not at work with the things happening below the desk. Good God. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was like 60* the day before, though. Easter Sunday. We were out on my cousins deck grilling in T-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, FXWX said: Exactly... That lack of a great high and nearby solidly colder than normal air mass is what sets this system apart from several other events. This setup is a kin to a couple of other March or early April events. You will get absolutely smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean look at this. 4:30 3/31/97. Look at this wall of convective precip running into a below 0C column from nrn CT, nrn RI, and just south of Boston. Can tell by the smoother echoes. Just an effing firehose. Huh. I had no idea RadarScope had the ability to view archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Its also 3 weeks earlier than 4/1/97, too...so there is a hair more margin for error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Clown range NAM is looking a bit east of 06z with that southern stream running pretty far ahead. Northern stream is dropping into the OH Valley though so it would def rip back NNW at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, mostman said: Huh. I had no idea RadarScope had the ability to view archives. It's real and it's spectacular. Cost like 12 bucks a month for some more capabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Clown range NAM is looking a bit east of 06z with that southern stream running pretty far ahead. Northern stream is dropping into the OH Valley though so it would def rip back NNW at some point... Yeah just scooting east and not feeling anything yet. But agree, it would start tugging NNW soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's real and it's spectacular. Cost like 12 bucks a month for some more capabilities. One of the greatest wx investments I’ve ever made. I pay annually and don’t bat an eye at shelling out the money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's real and it's spectacular. Cost like 12 bucks a month for some more capabilities. Ah it’s on the Pro Tier Two. I’m only on Tier One. That alone is probably worth the extra 5 dollars. The fact that it goes back that far is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just scooting east and not feeling anything yet. But agree, it would start tugging NNW soon. Actually a pretty close match to the 06z Euro at 90h when the run truncated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually a pretty close match to the 06z Euro at 90h when the run truncated. Your welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean we get that....but it’s like your morbid little kid brother following you around incessantly reminding you of your own mortality, while you're trying to enjoy a nice cookout. Agree, we all get the thread the needle set up. Taken from Scott earlier in the season, “ Scott’s post “makes you want get an uzi whenever he posts about this storm”. There is a low floor and very high ceiling potential with this bust possible either way after our initial forecasts come out. For now let’s all weenie out with the enormous potential while knowing in the back of our head there is a 30-50% chance the rug can be totally pulled out for most if it hugs and also if the dynamics don’t reach their ceiling considering the borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, Whineminster said: With no leaves on the trees, the risk from heavy wet snow is really minimized, except for some white pine branches. Dude March 18 I had 8 inches of wet snow when the ahit started hitting the fan. Imagine a foot plus of heavy wet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually a pretty close match to the 06z Euro at 90h when the run truncated. Hopefully that is a good thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Your welcome That was a great one for me. Getting 10" on Friday and then 24 hours later we're nuking another 16" (most of it fell in like 6 hours) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now