WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Thanks boys..appreciated. Now back to the storm..a little east is fine here(as Scott eluded too). Hey it’s fun just to be tracking a big storm. Details still to be determined. Ya, I hope it doesn’t play out like Jan 15 here…we got robbed in that one. But whatever it is, it is. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The pivot point on the Euro is very near where it was for Feb 2013....Hamden, to Hartford and just west of Kev...that corrdior. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pivot point on the Euro is very near where it was for Feb 2013....Hamden, to Hartford and just west of Kev...that corrdior. Ya…Ya that would be incredible! I had that in my mind…but didn’t want to sound weenieish lol. That track would work for sure. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ya…Ya that would be incredible! I had that in my mind…but didn’t want to sound weenieish lol. That track would work for sure. Lol. Maybe Luke would want the 00z OP Euro a shade west, and Kevin east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: absurd height falls. my god I would love to see a frontogenic product/chart as those heights are implode into a black hole... ha I mean it's gonna generate it's own meso complex with that much temperature crash at mid levels. Interestingly ...the 300mb + sigma levels don't really have the classic "diffluent fan" running down stream, however, this thing does close off at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Everyone needs to realize though that we literally have no cold when this starts. Even high elevations will waste a little until it really gets going. There is very little room for error with yet another garbage airmass and later in the season. Only thing better this time is a more dynamic system, and perhaps more of an ageostrophic (northerly in our case) component to the wind...but it's not drawing any cold air south really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I would love to see a frontogenic product/chart as those heights are implode into a black hole... ha I mean it's gonna generate it's own meso complex with that much temperature crash at mid levels. Interestingly ...the 300mb + sigma levels don't really have the classic "diffluent fan" running down stream, however, this thing does close off at that level. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe Luke would want the 00z OP Euro a shade west, and Kevin east. I like s of the Cape over elbow . That’s best for NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Everyone needs to realize though that we literally have no cold when this starts. Even high elevations will waste a little until it really gets going. There is very little room for error with yet another garbage airmass and later in the season. Only thing better this time is a more dynamic system, and perhaps more of an ageostrophic (northerly in our case) component to the wind...but it's not drawing any cold air south really. OMG, you are like a dutch-oven with legs. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: OMG, you are like a dutch-oven with legs. Maybe, but I'm applying some realistic meteorology too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sequence is backwards, but you get the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pivot point on the Euro is very near where it was for Feb 2013....Hamden, to Hartford and just west of Kev...that corrdior. Nice. That would smoke me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: OMG, you are like a dutch-oven with legs. A hot concept if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: We also don’t want that northern stream dropping in any earlier. In fact, I already think it’s dropping in too early and the only reason the euro/Ukie runs were good is because the southern stream took a wide turn. If they didn’t, this would be up the Hudson valley or CT valley. Looks like eps is putting this on the Cape/Islands still. There’s still a number of inland members…though only 2 of them are west of ORH. Most run them over BOS area and the largest cluster remains on the cape. It depends on the precise morphology of the total wave length spacing... I mentioned late last evening when I was vaguely conscious with sleepiness ... that the western ridge needed to be more so... but, I had the following popsicle headache aspects in mind when making that drive by posting: The ridge in the west can get more amplified, but it doesn't have to be in the Y coordinate. It could do so in the X-coordinate, in which case the N/stream subsuming wave would arrive on a shallower azimuth. The ridge could amplify in the Y-coordinate alone, which is akin to a shortened wave length and that would dictate a further west dive like you're intimating. These spatial geometries are critical in where this thing bottoms out. While all that is happening, the entire super synopsis could be moving E.. just to add another series of vector calculus to this whole thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe, but I'm applying some realistic meteorology too. I mean we get that....but its like your morbid little kid brother following you around incessantly reminding you of your own mortality, while you're trying to enjoy a nice cookout. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe, but I'm applying some realistic meteorology too. We're certainly going to need all the dynamic support we can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean we get that....but its like a your morbid little kid brother following you around reminding that of your mortality, while you're trying to enjoy a nice cookout. Because I feel like everyone is dropping their undies and treating this as a mid winter storm. It's not. There isn't a whole lot of room for error. Exact track and intensity rate matters. You simply cannot treat this as if we had a 1040 high to the north in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Because I feel like everyone is dropping their undies and treating this as a mid winter storm. It's not. There isn't a whole lot of room for error. Exact track and intensity rate matters. You simply cannot treat this as if we had a 1040 high to the north in January. I don't think anyone is married to 10:1 charts. I almost feel like you're projecting your own insecurities since the emergent consensus is about 50mi west of where you would like it lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Right but as of now with the track and dynamics it looks about as good as it can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It depends on the precise morphology of the total wave length spacing... I mentioned late last evening when I was vaguely conscious with sleepiness ... that the western ridge needed to be more so... but, I had the following popsicle headache aspects in mind when making that drive by posting: The ridge in the west can get more amplified, but it doesn't have to be in the Y coordinate. It could do so in the X-coordinate, in which case the N/stream subsuming wave would arrive on a shallower azimuth. The ridge could amplify in the Y-coordinate alone, which is akin to a shortened wave length and that would dictate a further west dive like you're intimating. These spatial geometries are critical in where this thing bottoms out. While all that is happening, the entire super synopsis could be moving E.. just to add another series of vector calculus to this whole thing. Yea, its tedious...need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Here is 925 prior to the onset of the euro op. That's a mild airmass to start. You got temps NW of Maine above 0C at 925. Look where the good stuff his. Next to Ray's Golds Gym nipple low NW of Toronto. Sure this can be overcome, no argument there...but it will depend on being in the real meat of this stuff, especially below 600' or so. If you expect 2-4" then nothing to worry about. But for 12" plus, I think you need a lot to go right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think anyone is married to 10:1 charts. I almost feel like you're projecting your own insecurities since the emergent consensus is about 50mi west of where you would like it lol If that were the case, I would have been fired years ago as I smoked cirrus while forecasting 30" in NYC. I'm looking at this as a met, not a weenie. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Here is 925 prior to the onset of the euro op. That's a mild airmass to start. You got temps NW of Maine above 0C at 925. Look where the good stuff his. Next to Ray's Golds Gym nipple low NW of Toronto. Sure this can be overcome, no argument there...but it will depend on being in the real meat of this stuff, especially below 600' or so. If you expect 2-4" then nothing to worry about. But for 12" plus, I think you need a lot to go right. I agree with you. Its no slam dunk HECS for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Bottom line is you're going to need huge rates in this one (thankfully it looks like that might happen) outside of the highest terrain. You also need a good track. Everything will have to go right to get a higher end storm or it could end up as a lot of lower end warning criteria or advisory criteria slop (with maybe some double digits in the hills/mountains). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: If that were the case, I would have been fired years ago as I smoked cirrus while forecasting 30" in NYC. I'm looking at this as a met, not a weenie. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone needs to realize though that we literally have no cold when this starts. Even high elevations will waste a little until it really gets going. There is very little room for error with yet another garbage airmass and later in the season. Only thing better this time is a more dynamic system, and perhaps more of an ageostrophic (northerly in our case) component to the wind...but it's not drawing any cold air south really. Is this airmass or Napril 97 better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is this airmass or Napril 97 better? That is a case where everything did go right....which is the point. This is also making further NW than that did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is this airmass or Napril 97 better? That storm had a better airmass with a good high to the north funneling cooler and drier air (wetbulbing helped cool us). That low also was well to our SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is this airmass or Napril 97 better? '97 had no airmass either, but the storm bombed out in the right spot to pull in a little bit of colder air that was lurking in Ontario/western Quebec (plus dynamical cooling too)....similar thing will need to happen in this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone needs to realize though that we literally have no cold when this starts. Even high elevations will waste a little until it really gets going. There is very little room for error with yet another garbage airmass and later in the season. Only thing better this time is a more dynamic system, and perhaps more of an ageostrophic (northerly in our case) component to the wind...but it's not drawing any cold air south really. Scott, Up here it would come in after sunset so a night time storm helps. Okay, my brain is fried. If a model now forecasts say a 7pm start time with the time change on Sunday would the start time be one hour earlier or later than shown now? I think one hour later, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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