wxsniss Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Half of the QPF is going to be rain in eastern areas, mostly in the beginning. Not true, verbatim minor qpf at the beginning, minor qpf after it's occluded and drifting away... Otherwise for the meat of the heaviest rates, 925 temps on up will dictate and that's heavy snow. Tuesday mid-day might be close. I'd want a tick southeast for a bit more buffer in Boston metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the difference maker. all by itself The ridge…right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: The ridge…right? yeah the increased ridging out west lets the northern stream vort dive into the trough, leading to an earlier, colder phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Not true, verbatim minor qpf at the beginning, minor qpf after it's occluded and drifting away... Otherwise for the meat of the heaviest rates, 925 temps on up will dictate and that's heavy snow. Tuesday mid-day might be close. I'd want a tick southeast for a bit more buffer in Boston metro. True. It does seem to rip overnight anyway. Daytime this time of year is always a crap shoot but if it rips enough...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Boston area would want a tick SE. 128 west ftw. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boston area would want a tick SE. 128 west ftw. Yeah Boston area risks a flip mid-day Tuesday going by 925s Looks like all snow and huge hit somewhere between 128-495 out to central MA, down to CT, up to southern NH For eastern SNE, we want a few ticks further southeast for more buffer... 4/97 center never got north of islands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 We also don’t want that northern stream dropping in any earlier. In fact, I already think it’s dropping in too early and the only reason the euro/Ukie runs were good is because the southern stream took a wide turn. If they didn’t, this would be up the Hudson valley or CT valley. Looks like eps is putting this on the Cape/Islands still. There’s still a number of inland members…though only 2 of them are west of ORH. Most run them over BOS area and the largest cluster remains on the cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 FWIW the JMA has a slower evolution to a deep low near Nantucket (972 mb by 00z Wed). It's a similar evolution to the most recent Euro but slower by at least 6h. Significance may be a tick slower for model consensus, would not buy into the timing but the track and intensity look great for 20-30" snowstorm. Will see if the 06z GFS is moving any closer to the Euro again, the models have more or less flip-flopped in terms of which ones are inland and which ones are coastal. NYC potential at the moment is in a very wide range (3-20), further up the river, more like 6-24. Snow from earlier event will chill the boundary layer which is one reason why an inland runner seems unlikely, at least inland west of Fall River to Chatham MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Everyone but the Conn River Valley snowhole. Those occur in all the big ones like this. Strong E inflow and it downslopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 This screams Litchfield HIlls/Berks/Cats special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I’ll take the 6z gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Pretty good agreement on where it’s going amongst all ensembles . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Stalls right over Methuen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Stalls right over Methuen Anyone wondering where Ray is… our fantasy baseball draft begins today and he prepares for that more than he does for We at E Mass Weather . Guaranteed he pulled an all nighter researching 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6Z GFS destroys 30 here over 40 for southern vt 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 That 0z EURO run last night was a thing of beauty for CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: That 0z EURO run last night was a thing of beauty for CT. Yes it was.. but the GFS 6z is mighty nice as well for us. If we can keep an the models in this zone and split the difference between the 2 major models.. we are going to see quite there snow event here in CT. Very exciting .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Yes it was.. but the GFS 6z is mighty nice as well for us. If we can keep an the models in this zone and split the difference between the 2 major models.. we are going to see quite there snow event here in CT. Very exciting .... the gfs would likely be less snow than shown. You don’t want this tucking into CT with a marginal airmass and the 10:1 maps aren’t going to help. I have this feeling the low is going into SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 My “gut” says NW CT on north and into nrn ORH and CNE is the place to be right now. Obviously things can change, but that’s what these overnight runs tell me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My “gut” says NW CT on north and into nrn ORH and CNE is the place to be right now. Obviously things can change, but that’s what these overnight runs tell me. Hopefully we can keep it over the cape but we'll see still a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My “gut” says NW CT on north and into nrn ORH and CNE is the place to be right now. Obviously things can change, but that’s what these overnight runs tell me. All the clustering on all 3 ens is elbow of cape or just off. I think that’s where it’s going. I could see it hooking back NW after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: That 0z EURO run last night was a thing of beauty for CT. 6z GFS clearly made a move towards it. You can see the changes aloft. We'll probably see more shifts on the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My “gut” says NW CT on north and into nrn ORH and CNE is the place to be right now. Obviously things can change, but that’s what these overnight runs tell me. I was taking a look at mid levels, and seeing where we see some negative relative temperatures at 7h, wanted to see where banding might be. 0z EURO would have one band far W CT up to Berks and another right over Kev. Might be why we are seeing some models give a snowhole to my east in valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 JMA destroys almost everybody, it's a godzilla storm. I heard they just upgraded that model too. Interesting to see if it performs here (it would be slower, deeper and slightly further southeast than most other guidance) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=120&mode=1&nh=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Ray is strangely quiet. I assume he is writing a 14 volume tome on this event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray is strangely quiet. I assume he is writing a 14 volume tome on this event He's probably pissed because the mid-level track is not suitable for a jackpot in his hood. I don't blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray is strangely quiet. I assume he is writing a 14 volume tome on this event 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone wondering where Ray is… our fantasy baseball draft begins today and he prepares for that more than he does for We at E Mass Weather . Guaranteed he pulled an all nighter researching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Dave Epstein @growingwisdom It's a split weekend in terms of weather with Sunday being the better day. A new storm moves in for Monday with a cold rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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