40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looks to me like we just lost the way seaward members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Selfishly I don't mind a somewhat earlier bombing south of Long Island. I didn't see that trend today, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to me like we just lost the way seaward members. Wey werd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 canal runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't see that trend today, thankfully. Definitely that trend today. Not in a bad way for you at all though. But the ensembles weren’t really throwing enough precip back here previously as it was bombing too late. The trend today on eps and especially GEFS is to get that ccb down here too finally. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Wey werd? Time out? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to me like we just lost the way seaward members. It seems the whiff likelihood is extremely low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: It seems the whiff likelihood is extremely low. This ain’t whiffing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, DaDuke said: LOL!... Everyone is forgetting the last 4 months of potential events... get your shit together everyone... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Definitely that trend today. Not in a bad way for you at all though. But the ensembles weren’t really throwing enough precip back here previously as it was bombing too late. The trend today on eps and especially GEFS is to get that ccb down here too finally. Yea, ensembles have trending more intense...I was looking at it from a LBSW standpoint. Agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: It seems the whiff likelihood is extremely low. yeah some concerns now on ptype, still a good look at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, ensembles have trending more intense...I was looking at it from a LBSW standpoint. Agree. How strong do you think this could theoretically get, 970s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: It seems the whiff likelihood is extremely low. Definitely. Now just a question of how far seaward the southern vort gets before it curls back NW into the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: How strong do you think this could theoretically get, 970s? Yea, probably....some runs have 960s, but that is pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I don’t think you want a system that is bombing too crazy and too rapidly. Those scenarios the precip tends to become more banded. This is why we hold the benchmark as a Godsend. If that happens over the benchmark…it’s happening in a location where everyone can cash in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Narcan and depth maps are still pretty conservative, so that may keep me from RGW tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, tavwtby said: canal runner? Fought him in Lubbock Texas back in 84 brother. Had a head like an anvil. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don’t think you want a system that is bombing too crazy and too rapidly. Those scenarios the precip tends to become more banded. This is why we hold the benchmark as a Godsend. If that happens over the benchmark…it’s happening in a location where everyone can cash in. Isn’t there a difference though in the maturity of the system and location relative to it? If you are NE of the rapid deepening, it might be more banded as the wave of lift propagates outward. But the places northwest of the immediate deepening should see strong and widespread lift. A shield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I don’t think you want a system that is bombing too crazy and too rapidly. Those scenarios the precip tends to become more banded. This is why we hold the benchmark as a Godsend. If that happens over the benchmark…it’s happening in a location where everyone can cash in. As long as it doesn't occlude, you want the insane deepening. That is what produced the intense banding....you want rate of max intensification as it approaches and bypasses the area. Its not just about track, but catching the system in the right stage of its lifecycle....you don't want the banded, occluded menopausal lows. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Narcan and depth maps are still pretty conservative, so that may keep me from RGW tomorrow Those depth maps are mainly worthless . Should be weighted lower than low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: Isn’t there a difference though in the maturity of the system and location relative to it? If you are NE of the rapid deepening, it might be more banded as the wave of lift propagates outward. But the places northwest of the immediate deepening should see strong and widespread lift. A shield. Yes. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: As long as it doesn't occlude, you want the insane deepening. That is what produced the intense banding....you want rate of max intensification as it approaches and bypasses the area. Its not just about track, but catching the system in the right stage of its lifecycle....you don't want the banded, occluded menopausal lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Selfishly I don't mind a somewhat earlier bombing south of Long Island. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good to see the 850 0°C line retreat from N of PLY to the canal, despite the more tucked in look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Those depth maps are mainly worthless . Should be weighted lower than low In a cold blizzard, they are...otherwise, they are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: In a cold blizzard, they are...otherwise, they are not. Shaking you by the neck disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Isn’t there a difference though in the maturity of the system and location relative to it? If you are NE of the rapid deepening, it might be more banded as the wave of lift propagates outward. But the places northwest of the immediate deepening should see strong and widespread lift. A shield of heavy WCB precip. Correct EDIT: Ray finished with the layup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In a cold blizzard, they are...otherwise, they are not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: As long as it doesn't occlude, you want the insane deepening. That is what produced the intense banding....you want rate of max intensification as it approaches and bypasses the area. Its not just about track, but catching the system in the right stage of its lifecycle....you don't want the banded, occluded menopausal lows. Yeah, you want the explosive phase. Beyond that is banded and outward, but weakening lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: yeah!! so your saying there's a chance!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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