78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wasn't done yet my man 90% of that 3" is snow for my backyard on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Fwiw the GEFS looks a little more likely with the snow totals near the coast at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 4. It starts Monday Goes batshit closer to 5. We’ll split the diff and say 4.5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Fwiw the GEFS looks a little more likely with the snow totals near the coast at least. GEFS looks warmer than the GFS at the surface, with much less QPF. 2m temps around 39-40F won't cut it near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GEFS looks warmer than the GFS at the surface, with much less QPF. 2m temps around 39-40F won't cut it near the coast. True but I didn't say it was perfect (that's the gfs). Temps will be an issue here so a cross between the two would probably work out reasonably well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm not sure why anyone would be calling for rain, in April 1982 the NYC mets were already talking about the city being shut down in a foot of snow. I stayed up to see the first flakes at 3 am. As we know, NYC can snow while Boston rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As we know, NYC can snow while Boston rains. The track was literally perfect for everyone to snow, if that storm had occurred in January or February it would have been a 2 foot plus HECS. It still was a HECS because of how cold it was and the extremely heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Stay cognizant of the fact that totals like those snow maps are almost always not likely, don't let your expectations get out of control. We need to hone in on a track. Still a lot to be figured out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Sometimes the songs that we hear are just songs of our own. Fantastic song. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fantastic song. Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro para Tossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GEFS looks warmer than the GFS at the surface, with much less QPF. 2m temps around 39-40F won't cut it near the coast. No way the GEFS are going to produce the QPF of the OP run. If you find an ensemble mean of widespread 2"+ of QPF then you've really hit the jackpot on historical event. There'd be some like 5" QPF members mixed in to get a mean over 2". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Stay cognizant of the fact that totals like those snow maps are almost always not likely, don't let your expectations get out of control. We need to hone in on a track. Still a lot to be figured out. It's hard to believe we still need to say that. I figured we all understand exactly what the snow maps are, essentially frozen QPF maps with the decimal point moved over. You have to assume 1) the QPF is correct 2) the p-type is correct and 3) the temps/ratios are correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Regardless of the outcome I am psyched it is an actual coastal (or should be) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. . NS a bit deeper, but SS probably would have kicked a bit farther SE as it’s not as wrapped up in the trough. looks good, would bomb again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. If this holds at 0Z I don't think we will see the Euro trying to come in up our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I’m kind of salivating on the 90 hour 18z euro look tbh. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Maybe crazy sounding to say … particular given the conditioning we’ve suffered unrelenting since … 2015 really. But objectively it appears the higher amplitude guidance renditions will be more correct than the lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Biggest take away is how much more intense the EPS has grown with this signal....more agreement on the capture and tug, but the spread is how quickly....some members over e MA, some over cape and some east. There are more of e MA now bc we have greater agreement on the capture. I think the ACK group is right. 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Coming to a consensus on a stall capture near cape IMO....increasing consensus on this capture scenario is going to cause more members to turn into e MA, at least initially. It could ultimately be a trend towards rain....sure, but I don't think it is. JMO. 16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel very good about this for most areas just off of the coast. I'm sure the usuals like scooter, Ryan and pickles will wake up and have this place like a morgue, but I am very intrigued. 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east. 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL You know damn well if all models were locked on a HECS, you'd be waiting for the other shoe to drop because its day 4. No way guidance has a process as intricate as this capture nailed down at 84-120 hours out. Changes coming.... No changes to my thought process, but changes to the EURO, as expected.... Very busy day for me tmw unless this unexpectedly shits the bed tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m kind of salivating on the 90 hour 18z euro look tbh. Huge bomb incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I'm liking my spot for this.. hoping 0z has some good trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge bomb incoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. . It’s a move toward gfs which works as the 18z gfs was stronger just don’t give me a Ukie strung out solution in 24-36 hrs . That is my only concern since I will travel for this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a move toward gfs just don’t give me a Ukie strung out solution in 24-36 hrs . That is my concern . Hopefully its nonsense As soon as I saw you had posted, I knew you would have a negative interpretation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a move toward gfs which works as the 18z gfs was stronger just don’t give me a Ukie strung out solution in 24-36 hrs . That is my only concern The UKIe was fine. Almost a Morch firehose redux. That would be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The UKIe was fine. Almost a Morch firehose redux. That would be good It was much less precip than other guidance, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EPS still over cape. Probably some inland members still. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 ALY likes the Euro solution, still saying everything on the table still, but leaning towards Euro for this, seeing how it's the best placement, I'll take...WU has upped whatever they use, from 4" to 9" in just a few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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