dryslot Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 48 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hippy approved. I don't mind where this is at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's the Euro? minor leagues ?…Varsity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Anyone able to update us on the Korean model that had the super-bomb yesterday? My approach if I had to make a forecast now would be to take a weighted average of GFS, Euro and GEM, ignore the rest. The weight should be something like 40-30-20 in that order. On that basis you come up with a very nice solution, not quite as tucked or intense as Euro, at times a bit south of GEM, closer to land than GFS and 5 mb deeper too. Let's say a 978 mb low near the benchmark from an origin near ACY. It would perhaps cut back a bit on Euro QPF but would spread 15-25 inch snowfalls over most of the region. I wouldn't call that "my" forecast because it's just a paradigm approach, if the models diverge, then split the difference, they can't all be right but sometimes none of them is exactly right compared to the others. GEM at the moment is intermediate in nature to GFS/Euro so a second approach might be, go with the intermediate of the three but skew that slightly towards the one of the other two you trust more. Frankly I trust the GFS more than the Euro but I hope for the best for your sake. I don't want to be the only poster here to reach 50" on my season (it is child's play here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ?…Varsity You said get the varsity on board. Euro is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: Same here in Central E CT, I’m thinking 5-6 while Kev has the potential for higher amounts. Could be a longitude deal - here in Trumbull maybe we do well while people even in NE corner get slop? I've seen that - albeit rarely. I remember a storm when I was in Lowell where it rained for the eastern third of Mass and I came home and we had like a foot here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Anyone able to update us on the Korean model that had the super-bomb yesterday? My approach if I had to make a forecast now would be to take a weighted average of GFS, Euro and GEM, ignore the rest. The weight should be something like 40-30-20 in that order. On that basis you come up with a very nice solution, not quite as tucked or intense as Euro, at times a bit south of GEM, closer to land than GFS and 5 mb deeper too. Let's say a 978 mb low near the benchmark from an origin near ACY. It would perhaps cut back a bit on Euro QPF but would spread 15-25 inch snowfalls over most of the region. I wouldn't call that "my" forecast because it's just a paradigm approach, if the models diverge, then split the difference, they can't all be right but sometimes none of them is exactly right compared to the others. GEM at the moment is intermediate in nature to GFS/Euro so a second approach might be, go with the intermediate of the three but skew that slightly towards the one of the other two you trust more. Frankly I trust the GFS more than the Euro but I hope for the best for your sake. I don't want to be the only poster here to reach 50" on my season (it is child's play here). Save a horse on coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Save a horse on coastals. Some old geezers know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The coast is going to get ravaged. A solution that stacks and loops will have a huge fetch flooding for multiple high tide cycles. CF is going to be critical as to who gets what. We have all been here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You said get the varsity on board. Euro is No, the icon was run from my basement but I have yet to run the euro from mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Was April 1982 the one where Will was abandoned out on the street in feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The euro looked too warm for swct until it got cranking? I think… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Was April 1982 the one where Will was abandoned out on the street in feet of snow? Yes 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 While he was abandoned by his biological parents, some winter elves happened upon the foundling and took him in as their own. And so a weenie was born… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 At least, The 18z GFS has the SLP where it should be near the cape this run instead of chasing the convection to the east on 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18z GFS starting to get a clue. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 GFS is nice for many. Definitely a step toward the Euro. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: GFS is nice for many. Definitely a step toward the Euro. It is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The GFS still has more upgrades needed to unseat the Euro, Its still bad with complex coastal systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 it’s doing its best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 mb in 12h over CHH … it's not quite bombogenesis, baby, but it's going in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: The GFS still has more upgrades needed to unseat the Euro, Its still bad with complex coastal systems. yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 that low is just camped out off the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I've been waiting all winter for this solution from the GFS. Now let's hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I believe the scientific name for this solution is apeshit. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Haven’t seen the run but the fact many like it generally doesn’t bode well up here, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Kuchie: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Kuchie: Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah this kind of setup is the GFS’s real undoing. it’s still much too progressive with phasing scenarios I would give it less weight on this one, I mean, This system is quite dynamic so there's going to be convective processes the are going to effect the outcome so i think the Euro can handle this better until we get into meso range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Wa-wa-wa-Wachusett 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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