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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ever been in the secret glade off of the left of gun barrel? You need a shit ton of fresh, but it is a beautiful top to bottom maintained glade. Staff must thin it and maintain it in the off season. It’s as good a glade area you’ll find in the northeast. Don’t be seen going in, they’ll pull your pass. But it’s quite worth it when conditions allow it.

Love that little pocket, especially when we get a dump. It's a great little glade. Like a mini Jay Peak ;)

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's just timing and digging of the lead s/w and that ULL over the Lakes. There's like a thousand types of combos that can pork us and it comes down to timing. 

Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA.

And on the gfs is the southern vort further SE which makes its harder for N stream to do any interaction , gfs seems to outrun it “too much”

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's just timing and digging of the lead s/w and that ULL over the Lakes. There's like a thousand types of combos that can pork us and it comes down to timing. 

Precisely why it's not worth getting all emotional from run-to-run. This gets said all the time at this stage, but this (especially this type of scenario) is where ensembles hold most weight. Like you said, there are a ton of different combos we can see and an OP is just going to show one of those combos and that doesn't necessarily mean it's holds the most weight.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And on the gfs is the southern vort further SE which makes its harder for N stream to do any interaction , gfs seems to outrun it “too much”

Yes....GFS was really shallow with the northenr stream too...I think if we had dug the northern stream just a touch more on the GFS, we could have achieved an EPS-esque solution.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA.

If I had to lean in any direction right now it's that we will eventually see a stronger consensus towards the southern vort outrunning the northern vort. There seem to be some decent signals that would favor the northern vort slowing down a bit.

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One has to wonder why the OP model(s) are waffling? Can't make a sound forecast or predict what the next run will produce. 
I believe it's normal given the timeframe. Nuisances, driving forces inclusive of all the variabilities upstream, downstream produce different outcomes.
Pointing out the difference between the run to run (some do it better than others) with scientific reasoning is one of the greatest attribute for having a forum.
To a member nobody will forecast the exact outcome.
It's nice to be tracking winter before severe season and the tropics take to the headlines.  

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Get an air bnb in the Berks for some fun 

Wife and I are trying to go to the Berks soon. Was thinking about this weekend but maybe next weekend would be better if they end up getting pummeled with this storm . Wish we could be there for the storm but sadly we can only do weekends.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie pukes well SE

Almost reminds me of the Mar 2013 firehose with that 600 mile long fetch of easterly 850s, lol. It's a little displaced south though. But just another solution....that was really close to being a monster hit.

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