STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian will be flatter too, although 00z was amped. Yup but should still rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, UnitedWx said: How have they held up this season? Must be a little tough for sure It's been pretty rough. I was out in Deer Valley last week. Was like being in snow globe for 4 days. Insane skiing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Cmc has brings the low up over 495 in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yup but should still rock Yeah nrn stream catches up to it. Tries to capture over Will's house. Bodies buried in srn VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 A boatload of qpf on cmc. Most of it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said: Ever been in the secret glade off of the left of gun barrel? You need a shit ton of fresh, but it is a beautiful top to bottom maintained glade. Staff must thin it and maintain it in the off season. It’s as good a glade area you’ll find in the northeast. Don’t be seen going in, they’ll pull your pass. But it’s quite worth it when conditions allow it. Love that little pocket, especially when we get a dump. It's a great little glade. Like a mini Jay Peak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Berks up through VT buried. Powderfreak just sittin and smilin… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah nrn stream catches up to it. Tries to capture over Will's house. Bodies buried in srn VT. I don’t love that ULL Maybe trending weaker . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I have a bad feeling about this one. Leaning toward thinking it's rain for us vs. a whiff. Hope we pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Cmc blows for eastern sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I don’t love that ULL Maybe trending weaker It's just timing and digging of the lead s/w and that ULL over the Lakes. There's like a thousand types of combos that can pork us and it comes down to timing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Get an air bnb in the Berks for some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's just timing and digging of the lead s/w and that ULL over the Lakes. There's like a thousand types of combos that can pork us and it comes down to timing. Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA. And on the gfs is the southern vort further SE which makes its harder for N stream to do any interaction , gfs seems to outrun it “too much” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's just timing and digging of the lead s/w and that ULL over the Lakes. There's like a thousand types of combos that can pork us and it comes down to timing. Precisely why it's not worth getting all emotional from run-to-run. This gets said all the time at this stage, but this (especially this type of scenario) is where ensembles hold most weight. Like you said, there are a ton of different combos we can see and an OP is just going to show one of those combos and that doesn't necessarily mean it's holds the most weight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ok thanks. I’m gonna chill I thought the GFS might pull off what Will described, but it's still got that inv trough look. It's not far from a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 So there are two camps, over amped and too strung out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 So do I have to fix my snow blower on Saturday or not? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And on the gfs is the southern vort further SE which makes its harder for N stream to do any interaction , gfs seems to outrun it “too much” Yes....GFS was really shallow with the northenr stream too...I think if we had dug the northern stream just a touch more on the GFS, we could have achieved an EPS-esque solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA. If I had to lean in any direction right now it's that we will eventually see a stronger consensus towards the southern vort outrunning the northern vort. There seem to be some decent signals that would favor the northern vort slowing down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 One has to wonder why the OP model(s) are waffling? Can't make a sound forecast or predict what the next run will produce. I believe it's normal given the timeframe. Nuisances, driving forces inclusive of all the variabilities upstream, downstream produce different outcomes. Pointing out the difference between the run to run (some do it better than others) with scientific reasoning is one of the greatest attribute for having a forum. To a member nobody will forecast the exact outcome. It's nice to be tracking winter before severe season and the tropics take to the headlines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Get an air bnb in the Berks for some fun Wife and I are trying to go to the Berks soon. Was thinking about this weekend but maybe next weekend would be better if they end up getting pummeled with this storm . Wish we could be there for the storm but sadly we can only do weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 23 hours ago, JKEisMan said: 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Get an air bnb in the Berks for some fun Need this one for the Southern Greens. I’ve got to build on my pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Ukie pukes Low hundreds of miles well SE ULL further N looks GFs ish but with IVT over NY/ W New eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Glad you whined your way to a 2 foot pack. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Nice Kuchy GFS run for Mark, Brian and me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie pukes well SE Almost reminds me of the Mar 2013 firehose with that 600 mile long fetch of easterly 850s, lol. It's a little displaced south though. But just another solution....that was really close to being a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Glad you whined your way to a 2 foot pack. Crappy winter here. Have to make up for lost time and spring skiing. This is the mountains not the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I have a bad feeling about this one. Leaning toward thinking it's rain for us vs. a whiff. Hope we pull it off. I’m leaning towards a subpar outcome for swct but another 24-36hrs is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Crappy winter here. Have to make up for lost time and spring skiing. This is the mountains not the Atlantic. You and QG omega get along well lol. No changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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