The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[Cyclone-68]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m about 35 miles due west of the “H”

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree. Although last nights 18z run scored a major win with the SWCT snow threat tomorrow night . So hopefully it’s onto something with storm # 2.

I heard this about the GFS but I assume the same holds for the Euro, 18Z is the off hour run with more aircraft (ACARS) data than the 6Z, more data, better initialization, more accurate run.  The cargo airlines make up a big part of the 6Z aircraft data.

[Kitz Craver]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where in CT are you?

Meriden… Not thinking a jack, but not rain either 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah wait until at least Saturday, lol....this could be ripping up the CT valley for all we know by tomorrow. If we keep the general model clustering close to the BM/outer Cape region today, then I'd start to get a little more confident, but we're still in that precarious window at D4.5ish

Maybe get Kevin in the NE quadrant for some damage? 

[George001]

25 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

My point is coastal SNE will be rain.   Where the rain/snow line is inland TBD but it will be a ways out.  No denying that - let’s just be honest with this set up and it’s mid March, and the entirety of winter has been this way to

In Boston yeah you are probably fucked with this one. For us in coastal areas and interior SE Mass we need a high to the north to bring the cold air in, otherwise we will end up with a cold rain and if it does flip due to dynamics, the snow ratios will be low. The lack of cold also leads to a weaker thermal gradient, which will make it tougher to get the low to bomb out enough. Inland is a different story, there is more room for error there but I’d be shocked if either of us get a plowable snow from this. The models seem to be locked in on the airmass being warm. That doesn’t mean it’s time to punt winter though, we still have a couple weeks left before climo becomes too unfavorable and we are done with threats.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

In Boston yeah you are probably fucked with this one. For us in coastal areas and interior SE Mass we need a high to the north to bring the cold air in, otherwise we will end up with a cold rain and if it does flip due to dynamics, the snow ratios will be low. The lack of cold also leads to a weaker thermal gradient, which will make it tougher to get the low to bomb out enough. Inland is a different story, there is more room for error there but I’d be shocked if either of us get a plowable snow from this. The models seem to be locked in on the airmass being warm. That doesn’t mean it’s time to punt winter though, we still have a couple weeks left before climo becomes too unfavorable and we are done with threats.

These are not necessarily true. 

[ORH_wxman]

First JV model that can see the storm today (ICON) brings it over E MA....obviously not very good for most of SNE...though ORH county to Berkshires and NW CT do quite well on that run with the jackpot from Catskills to NW MA taconics to buried bodies in S VT.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Meriden… Not thinking a jack, but not rain either 

IDK. I don’t have a feel for this yet. Rain is on the table though imo.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These are not necessarily true. 

I hope I’m wrong, but even the most explosive runs don’t have the temp getting below 34 or so for my area, and the kuchera maps were a lot less snowy than the 10:1 maps. For the thermal gradient issue, isn’t that how coastal areas get our biggest March blizzards? The clash of cold air to the north with warmer ocean temps? 

[DJln491]

Hope the CT hill towns do well.  I'm preparing myself for slop at best here in death valley.  Anything better than that will be a win.

[wilsonvoid1]

First JV model that can see the storm today (ICON) brings it over E MA....obviously not very good for most of SNE...though ORH county to Berkshires and NW CT do quite well on that run with the jackpot from Catskills to NW MA taconics to buried bodies in S VT.
 

though I kinda agree with what the germans are depicting, I think that by far that's the worst model, probably worse than NavGem and Japanese model. They should just retire the damn thing!


.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, George001 said:

I hope I’m wrong, but even the most explosive runs don’t have the temp getting below 34 or so for my area, and the kuchera maps were a lot less snowy than the 10:1 maps. For the thermal gradient, isn’t that how coastal areas get our biggest March blizzards? The clash of cold air to the north with warmer ocean temps? 

I wouldn't worry too much with what models have for 2m temps verbatim, no matter the solution and forgot the garbage snowfall maps. 

The degree of upper-level dynamics which will be in place will support the potential for rapid deepening and cyclogenesis (obviously it's a matter of getting everything to phase and align). In the event we see a favorable phase, dynamics will then take over. Combination of increasing llvl convergence and ulvl divergence along will work to cool the profile and if you can get a favorable low track/placement you'll even increase the odds for a cold enough profile down to the coast. 

But the one thing models will struggle with is the 2M temperatures in these scenarios. Remember, they're going to want to scale towards climo in a sense. but if you were to look at 2M temps at this stage and see 34-35 (even in the most explosive runs), I would be willing to bet at verification time the temps are more 32-33. 

[UnitedWx]

55 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ever been in the secret glade off of the left of gun barrel? You need a shit ton of fresh, but it is a beautiful top to bottom maintained glade. Staff must thin it and maintain it in the off season. It’s as good a glade area you’ll find in the northeast. Don’t be seen going in, they’ll pull your pass. But it’s quite worth it when conditions allow it.

Never been there... but found a dirt road off Ratlum just north of there that wanders up to the old fire tower on the ridge. A few years back I squeezed the Power Wagon up there. I was stopped by a local asking WTF I was doing. Told him I was inspecting for the utility Co. He said "oh, ok" Advantages of having a utility Co. yellow work truck!

[Snowcrazed71]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe get Kevin in the NE quadrant for some damage? 

He LIVES for damage!!! 

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My bigger take away from these overnight various products ... in whole, we lack antecedent cold. 

Long version of what/why that tenderizes butts ...  Determining this thing's ultimate position in space would be better performed if the baroclinic gradient was not so week. 

You need that dense, cold medium abutted to a waif warm humid air mass. Example, the 'roids version of that is Dec 2005. The thermal packing between NJ and Cape Cod was extraordinary.   In this case?  not extraordinary. In fact, less than even ordinary.  It's the same thickness and synoptic parameters over BTV as it is over ACK upon the arrival of the mid level forcing(s).  The low in the model vision has no axis along which is compelled to position.

These aspect feed back on one another.  With a better defined baroclinic axis, that focuses a vortex centric UVM (upward vertical motion) in the lower altitude of the vortex medium, which causes height falls over that region, and then the phasing aloft that is concurrently happening snaps into place/collocates and whole thing goes synergistic ...and annuls are written.

But here, we have enough mid levels for history but that lacking of those crucial aspects beneath... the low is just physically not limited in hooking W ( Euro).  It's probably something like the 1888, not as a total analog ( no ), but that it may be over top warm intrusion. 

There is time to correct the antecedence colder...  Sometimes in these mid range spring systems, they will look this way in the mid ...ext ranges, with warm air wrapping around the top and the cold underneath, but then as the whole show gets closer in time ... sensitivity seems better and the model physics "detect" more BL (boundary layer) resistance ...  

It's tough, because these guidance' don't put out solutions that are impossible - that's not how this works.   No model is a model if they do that - they are the peregrinations of George01's imagination behind a torpid gaze out the window if they do... 

 

Good post. How was baroclinicity prior to 4/97? I remember temps in mid 60s in days prior.

(And no I’m not making any comparisons... this is purely academic… 4/97 is hallowed territory that may not be repeated in a lifetime…)

[CoastalWx]

I think the GFS will be flatter or a bit east of 6z.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs might b weak ugly SE

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the GFS will be flatter or a bit east of 6z.

The ULL is weaksauce and NE of other runs 

[Typhoon Tip]

ICON is several dm deeper in max amplitude/stall point near the latitude of PSM/E ... which is too far up our keesters for comfort.

Not sure on the model at any point beyond 36 or so hours...  I've seen it be vagarious at just the precisely wrong amounts ...however unnoticeable ... kinda like it was trying to get away with something haha...you believe it...  risking at own peril.

Anyway, relative to this run, this appears to be a deeper mid level amplitude management, while still not detecting enough cold air to have helped force this thing more S/SE of that end 144 hour position.

[RDRY]

GFS seems to be moving away from the Euro. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

So what are you expecting for east of 495/ east/south east New England?  

Probably 6-12" in Tblizz house and 0" in Weymouth 

[ariof]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I remember temps in mid 60s in days prior.

63˚ on 3/30! 

[dendrite]

Glorified inverted trough

[ORH_wxman]

Almost a non-storm on the GFS....gets some heavier precip in there via the IVT but this is probably similar to those lows we see on the ensemble clusters that are well southeast.

[dendrite]

Let's bomb it and back it back into Ray's fanny.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Good post. How was baroclinicity prior to 4/97? I remember temps in mid 60s in days prior.

(And no I’m not making any comparisons... this is purely academic… 4/97 is hallowed territory that may not be repeated in a lifetime…)

It was non-existent haha...

Yeah...I mean I'm not sure but that particular event has been continuously popping up in my mind, not because it is any kind of an analog or even close to it... but just in so far as that thermal aspect - that mostly fell at night. That's A... it raged on into the morning but by then the CCB was so dense that even with April sun rising over it was unable to overcome the "cold momentum" if you will...

I'm also not abundantly sure there wasn't any deceptively albeit crucially important llv cold lurking across Nw-N NE ... Sometimes like Will and I were mentioning it only takes a couple DP worth in a marginal set-up to make world's of difference.

[ariof]

06Z on Tuesday has gone from 992mb at 41.72, 70.14 to 1000mb at 37.11, 70.14. Just a 4˚/276SM shift south. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is just progressive compared to all other guidance... It's tearing apart the phase manifold by forcing everything to England

[CoastalWx]

Canadian will be flatter too, although 00z was amped.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian will be flatter too, although 00z was amped.

I’m not so sure about that.