The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s probably anecdotal but the off hour euro/eps is a tick less trustworthy to this weenie. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s probably anecdotal but the off hour euro/eps is a tick less trustworthy to this weenie. 

Well, 18z began the ampy trend last night and was validated by 00z.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks pretty good for many. 

06z run got rid of most of the interior MA tracks looking at the clusters.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z run got rid of most of the interior MA tracks looking at the clusters.

 

Excellent move....now lets get rid of that straggler over Torrington, CT

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Excellent move....now lets get rid of that straggler over Torrington, CT

And let’s get rid of the Far East ones next 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My thoughts haven't changed....this has looked like converging consensus on capture near outer cape for a couple of days now....gotta ride out the ampy OP runs

[Heisy]

Edit: woops didn’t refresh and see that others had mentioned it.


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z eps big trend SE


.

I wish we could get that H5 bodily under LI, but that is too large of a correction, at this stage...IMO.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z eps big trend SE


.

One run is not a trend though but yea that’s a great shift for SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2/51 members track the low west of me on that 06z suite.

One rogue member over NW CT, one over central NH, and then a cluster right on the east coast of MA...the rest are pound-town.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish we could get that H5 bodily under LI, but that is too large of a correction, at this stage...IMO.

the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the UKMET actually manages to pull that off. absolutely sick 500mb evolution

Unfortunately, it blew a .19 at initialization.

[tavwtby]

still a lot of members way SE, but a nice cluster near the cape I take

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's a big hit for a lot of people in the New England forum on the EPS     

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

still a lot of members way SE, but a nice cluster near the cape I take

With what the pro’s have alluded to, I don’t mind the SE members at this stage. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That's a big hit for a lot of people in the New England forum on the EPS     

[dryslot]

Hold it right there, Looks good.

[Hoth]

My kingdom for a better airmass. Smells like potentially another disappointment on the coastal plain. 

[tavwtby]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With what the pro’s have alluded to, I don’t mind the SE members at this stage. 

yeah I'll take it, seems to me that there's a few more members out to sea that run, but majority of them seem to be tightening up just off the coast, other than a couple overhead members that is a good look

[Typhoon Tip]

My bigger take away from these overnight various products ... in whole, we lack antecedent cold. 

Long version of what/why that tenderizes butts ...  Determining this thing's ultimate position in space would be better performed if the baroclinic gradient was not so week. 

You need that dense, cold medium abutted to a waif warm humid air mass. Example, the 'roids version of that is Dec 2005. The thermal packing between NJ and Cape Cod was extraordinary.   In this case?  not extraordinary. In fact, less than even ordinary.  It's the same thickness and synoptic parameters over BTV as it is over ACK upon the arrival of the mid level forcing(s).  The low in the model vision has no axis along which is compelled to position.

These aspect feed back on one another.  With a better defined baroclinic axis, that focuses a vortex centric UVM (upward vertical motion) in the lower altitude of the vortex medium, which causes height falls over that region, and then the phasing aloft that is concurrently happening snaps into place/collocates and whole thing goes synergistic ...and annuls are written.

But here, we have enough mid levels for history but that lacking of those crucial aspects beneath... the low is just physically not limited in hooking W ( Euro).  It's probably something like the 1888, not as a total analog ( no ), but that it may be over top warm intrusion. 

There is time to correct the antecedence colder...  Sometimes in these mid range spring systems, they will look this way in the mid ...ext ranges, with warm air wrapping around the top and the cold underneath, but then as the whole show gets closer in time ... sensitivity seems better and the model physics "detect" more BL (boundary layer) resistance ...  

It's tough, because these guidance' don't put out solutions that are impossible - that's not how this works.   No model is a model if they do that - they are the peregrinations of George01's imagination behind a torpid gaze out the window if they do... 

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My bigger take away from these overnight various products ... in whole, we lack antecedent cold. 

Long version of what/why that tenderizes butts ...  Determining this thing's ultimate position in space would be better performed if the baroclinic gradient was not so week. 

You need that dense, cold medium abutted to a waif warm humid air mass. Example, the 'roids version of that is Dec 2005. The thermal packing between NJ and Cape Cod was extraordinary.   In this case?  not extraordinary. In fact, less than even ordinary.  It's the same thickness and synoptic parameters over BTV as it is over ACK upon the arrival of the mid level forcing(s).  The low in the model vision has no axis along which to is compelled to position.

These aspect feed back on one another.  With a better defined baroclinic axis, that focuses a vortex centric UVM in the lower altitude of the vortex medium, which causes height falls over that region, and then the phasing aloft that is concurrently happening snaps into place/collocates and whole thing goes synergistic ...and annuls are written.

But here, we have enough mid levels for history but that lacking of those crucial aspects beneath... the low is just physically not limited in hooking W ( Euro).  It's probably something like the 1888, not as a total analog ( no ), but that it may be over top warm intrusion. 

There is time to correct the antecedence colder...  Sometimes in these mid range spring systems, they will look this way with warm air wrapping around the top, and the cold underneath, but then as the whole show gets closer in time ... sensitivity seems better and the model physics "detect" more BL (boundary layer) resistance ...  

It's tough, because these guidance' don't put out solutions that are impossible - that's not how this works.   No model is a model if they do that - they are the peregrinations of George01's gaze out the window if they do... 

 

 

Yeah this is related to the discussion I had yesterday on why Feb 2013 was so prolific and also didn't have a lot of violent model swings once the non-Euro guidance caught onto it....it had a fairly fresh polar high to the north (I wouldn't call it arctic, but solid polar airmass) and this provided some real resistance to any potential westward moves in addition to obviously locking in the BL cold. The high providing resistance also increased the ML fronto in that storm which helps make it more prolific in snow totals.

That not being present in this system means we're hoping for the ideal track. Like you said, I'm hoping as we get closer, maybe we see a little bit more resistance...it's not going to look like a Feb 2013 high, but even marginally more resistance goes a long way in areas that are progged to be marginal in this. Even a psuedo-decaying high sliding east of Houlton ME would be a little bit useful.

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My bigger take away from these overnight various products ... in whole, we lack antecedent cold. 

Long version of what/why that tenderizes butts ...  Determining this thing's ultimate position in space would be better performed if the baroclinic gradient was not so week. 

You need that dense, cold medium abutted to a waif warm humid air mass. Example, the 'roids version of that is Dec 2005. The thermal packing between NJ and Cape Cod was extraordinary.   In this case?  not extraordinary. In fact, less than even ordinary.  It's the same thickness and synoptic parameters over BTV as it is over ACK upon the arrival of the mid level forcing(s).  The low in the model vision has no axis along which is compelled to position.

These aspect feed back on one another.  With a better defined baroclinic axis, that focuses a vortex centric UVM in the lower altitude of the vortex medium, which causes height falls over that region, and then the phasing aloft that is concurrently happening snaps into place/collocates and whole thing goes synergistic ...and annuls are written.

But here, we have enough mid levels for history but that lacking of those crucial aspects beneath... the low is just physically not limited in hooking W ( Euro).  It's probably something like the 1888, not as a total analog ( no ), but that it may be over top warm intrusion. 

There is time to correct the antecedence colder...  Sometimes in these mid range spring systems, they will look this way in the mid ...ext ranges, with warm air wrapping around the top and the cold underneath, but then as the whole show gets closer in time ... sensitivity seems better and the model physics "detect" more BL (boundary layer) resistance ...  

It's tough, because these guidance' don't put out solutions that are impossible - that's not how this works.   No model is a model if they do that - they are the peregrinations of George01's imagination behind a torpid gaze out the window if they do... 

 

Matt Noyes mentioned the same this morning..

[tavwtby]

I think the fact we are now ~5 days from go and it's still relatively been steadfast across all suites is a plus this season... just hold serve and I believe most on the forum will cash in on something

[Sugarloaf1989]

If I recall correctly the 1888 snowstorm did a loop south of Eastern Long Island. 

That track makes sense with 21" of snow in NYC and temperatures in the single digits and a rain/snow mix in Boston and 10".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I think the fact we are now ~5 days from go and it's still relatively been steadfast across all suites is a plus this season... just hold serve and I believe most on the forum will cash in on something

You’re in a great spot. Jelly.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah this is related to the discussion I had yesterday on why Feb 2013 was so prolific and also didn't have a lot of violent model swings once the non-Euro guidance caught onto it....it had a fairly fresh polar high to the north (I wouldn't call it arctic, but solid polar airmass) and this provided some real resistance to any potential westward moves in addition to obviously locking in the BL cold. The high providing resistance also increased the ML fronto in that storm which helps make it more prolific in snow totals.

That not being present in this system means we're hoping for the ideal track. Like you said, I'm hoping as we get closer, maybe we see a little bit more resistance...it's not going to look like a Feb 2013 high, but even marginally more resistance goes a long way in areas that are progged to be marginal in this. Even a psuedo-decaying high sliding east of Houlton ME would be a little bit useful.

Ha... no idea that conversation happened..   (little too much traffic in here to keep track I guess -)

Right, in addition to forcing low position ...it then focus those other goodies aloft too.  I was being more broadly conceptual but yup

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah this is related to the discussion I had yesterday on why Feb 2013 was so prolific and also didn't have a lot of violent model swings once the non-Euro guidance caught onto it....it had a fairly fresh polar high to the north (I wouldn't call it arctic, but solid polar airmass) and this provided some real resistance to any potential westward moves in addition to obviously locking in the BL cold. The high providing resistance also increased the ML fronto in that storm which helps make it more prolific in snow totals.

That not being present in this system means we're hoping for the ideal track. Like you said, I'm hoping as we get closer, maybe we see a little bit more resistance...it's not going to look like a Feb 2013 high, but even marginally more resistance goes a long way in areas that are progged to be marginal in this. Even a psuedo-decaying high sliding east of Houlton ME would be a little bit useful.

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha... no idea that conversation happened..   (little too much traffic in here to keep track I guess -)

Right, in addition to forcing low position ...it then focus those other goodies aloft too.  I was being more broadly conceptual but yup

Any takes on analogs to this situation? Kind of gives me December '96 vibes....2nd  installment.

[tavwtby]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re in a great spot. Jelly.

just hope it holds, I have more confidence in this than anything else this winter, I can say that

[weatherwiz]

As we get closer, we could probably really start focusing on the potential for dynamic cooling to negate a subpar initial airmass. In these solutions were seeing airmass wouldn't be a huge concern as the degree of dynamic cooling would probably be pretty significant.