WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Areas affected...Hudson Valley region into parts of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 140454Z - 141030Z SUMMARY...Heavy wet snow will increase overnight, with 1-2 inch per hour rates possible, especially at higher elevations. DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an intensifying cyclone is evident in WV/IR imagery well off of the Mid Atlantic coast (near 37N, 71W). A surface trough extends northwest of this cyclone, with an apparent mesolow (suggested by radar imagery and surface/ship/buoy observations) moving north-northeastward along the surface trough toward western/central Long Island, where the strongest 2-hour pressure falls are currently noted. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward out of the OH Valley region toward the Northeast/New England. Increasing deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough combined with persistent low-level moisture transport will intensify precipitation rates overnight from the Hudson Valley region into parts of southern New England. Temperatures remain near/above freezing across the region as of 04Z, though higher elevations and portions of the Hudson Valley have turned over to snow. For western MA/northwest CT/southern VT into adjacent portions of the Hudson Valley, limited near-surface warm advection along/west of the surface trough will allow precipitation type to remain as snow overnight, resulting in the potential for 1-2 inch per hour snow rates as precipitation intensifies. Farther east, stronger low-level warm advection results in some uncertainty regarding precipitation type at lower elevations, though very heavy wet snow rates will be possible at higher elevations in the Worcester Hills and vicinity overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Odd, Pivotal is significantly different along the east coast of MA. Something is off... Pivotal seems to always have a problem with the snow map for the crazy uncle. Not sure why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 My only hope at this point. Pretty bullish for W CT and solid for E Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Agreed with haves and have nots...but a 300-400% different across eastern MA areas makes me question Storm Vistas output as a whole. SV used to be stingy and now they seem. full weenie. But their algo for snow may be different. Either way, I think metro Boston gets a decent snow event that should melt quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: SV used to be stingy and now they seem. full weenie. But their algo for snow may be different. Either way, I think metro Boston gets a decent snow event that should melt quickly. Good luck out there. It looks good on the guidance. Could be a high end period if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: SV used to be stingy and now they seem. full weenie. But their algo for snow may be different. Either way, I think metro Boston gets a decent snow event that should melt quickly. Decided to stay up for the Euro. I went to bed but couldn't sleep. Edit- never mind, I forgot about DST, the curse of following hurricanes on work days... Edit 2- It isn't as bad as a few years ago, I don't know if Euro runs faster or it just gets to the net faster, but it seems like it used to not come out at all until almost 2 am CDT/3 am EDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Oh well-might as well wait another 10 minutes for the Euro. I hope to be up by 10-11 tomorrow-going to lunch with a friend at Noon but we agreed to talk around 11 to assess conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My only hope at this point. Pretty bullish for W CT and solid for E Mass. About 9-10" here and don't think it's done yet, at that point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Good luck out there. It looks good on the guidance. Could be a high end period if things break right. Thanks Don! I still would not be totally shocked if we got 3 inches of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Oh well-might as well wait another 10 minutes for the Euro. I hope to be up by 10-11 tomorrow-going to lunch with a friend at Noon but we agreed to talk around 11 to assess conditions. I knew you weren't going anywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: SV used to be stingy and now they seem. full weenie. But their algo for snow may be different. Either way, I think metro Boston gets a decent snow event that should melt quickly. Agreed with a 3-6 / 4-8 outcome for metro Boston. Hard pass on StormVista’s 18-24 outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 SPC meso confirms the nipple is real, although obs thread seems cheerful except S and E CT, people getting snow who expected to be rain and people getting rain but a degree or two F colder than the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: About 9-10" here and don't think it's done yet, at that point.. Yeah, that ends at 00z. 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Thanks Don! I still would not be totally shocked if we got 3 inches of slop. At this point I’d sign for that and just move on. I’m expecting no accumulation here now. Feel like I need a Hail Mary. Absolutely pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: What is that area southeast of Boston? Is that some kind of local enhancement due to some ocean effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Agreed with a 3-6 / 4-8 outcome for metro Boston. Hard pass on StormVista’s 18-24 outcome My vendors have erroneous output, too, sometimes....both F5 and wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Agreed with a 3-6 / 4-8 outcome for metro Boston. Hard pass on StormVista’s 18-24 outcome Well the only exception is if I see it snowing when I pee around 8am all bets are off and we're going big. I don't expect that and guidance doesn't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Euro looks like all the rest. I'm looking forward to a period of heavy snow tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 At first glance at hr 12 it looks like the Euro should be west of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: At first glance at hr 12 it looks like the Euro should be west of the 12z run. I didn't pay attention to 12Z-was in a meeting and forgot about it. But once the nipple resolves the low goes east of the cape and loops back to a position a little closer but just off PVD before moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I didn't pay attention to 12Z-was in a meeting and forgot about it. But once the nipple resolves the low goes east of the cape and loops back to a position a little closer but just off PVD before moving out. The end result is not much changed from 12z. Ray looks to do a bit better. Nice hit for BOS metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Pivotal gives BOS a foot. Now it's bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: Pivotal gives BOS a foot. Now it's bed time. Yup, calling it a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Euro slays here..back to 06z look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro slays here..back to 06z look! Clown map plz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Clown map plz lol 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Euro Kuchera map is a carbon copy of my final call...maybe should have gone w Scooter's 8-14 IMBY instead of 12-20", but I feel good about my map overall in what was an exceedingly difficult forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Clown map plz lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, joey2002 said: 10:1 I'll sign up for this after all the other models screwed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 All I want is 5-6 of paste and strong winds to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure why my map is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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