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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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23 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I doubt higher. Think 6ish is reasonable for you guys. The entire area from you down to Hartford on I-84 is probably my biggest uncertainty right now.

I could see a bit of everything. Overperformer western areas and underperformer east.

I think ORH on east has true red flags south of MA border. Concerned with the extent of that dryslot. Would be horrific combination of marginal boundary layer, and poor snow growth rates.

Northwest Connecticut to the Berkshires has been targeted as sweet spot for days. The real enigma has been valleys, and Eastern New England. 

Further North and West you are, that dryslot and warm air is out of the picture.

Looks great for Rt. 2 higher elevations no matter what. The real question is Eastern MA, valleys. Those are absolute wildcards. 

It's not like the temperatures aloft are super warm. It's very marginal there too. If we can overcome that with rates; look out. A weenie's dream = waking up tomorrow to isothermal man snow bomb.

I have also noticed pretty impressive 7h look for CT on the backside of this thing. Considering the fact cold air is driving south, and the storm is stalling offshore, that could mean a nice finish for many in the interior of Southern New England.

It's important to note the wild spread in solutions still at this close range. If modeling is struggling this much, means we really have some uncertainty on the table.

Surface temperatures need to be watched like a hawk this evening. 

 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey John... do you have a snow map out or outline of amounts you’re thinking? 

Hey Kevin...  For this system, I've used a list by county and in most cases have broken the counties up into north / south zones, as well as higher v. lower elevations.  Given the tremendous variations expected across short distances due to elevation changes, even within some individual districts like yours; my superintendent groups actually prefer the list range compared to a contoured map in setups like this.

My take is a bit more bullish (by an inch or 2) in the central valley zone compared to some other numbers I've seen... For your area, I let the 10-14 inch zone cross the I-84 corridor by a smidge and let 14+ number get a bit closer to the MA/CT border area of Tolland Cty.

The most volatile areas I think are the sharp gradients across western Hartford Cty, far northern New Haven Cty and the southern Litchfield Cty into northern Fairfield Cty area.  I also think southern Tolland Cty into far northern New London Cty is going to be interesting?

 

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Will be interesting watching this develop tomorrow. Looks like we'll be in the right front quadrant of that low as it pinwheels into Cape Ann. Still thinking around 8-10 final here but winds may be the bigger story. School decided to do an early release thinking it won't be snowing until tomorrow afternoon...not sure about that.

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My six-model weighted consensus is fairly optimistic for snow potential because it avoids the widest loops but also pulls in the most snow-unfriendly lingering lows in west. Even so I don't see much reason to go against consensus around here, just would say I am 2-4" on the positive side of some forecasts I've been reading. 

As for ORH and 33" that is logical if one assumes QPF of 3.3" and 10:1 all snow result, or 4.1" and 8:1. Probably all components of those are off, would say 3.0" 80% snow at 8:1 . And that boils down to a snowfall at ORH of 19.2" but my prediction is 15-18". 

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I just took a quick drive up by my parent's house on Winter Hill (~920' up on the Worcester/Holden line). It's mainly snow w/ some rain mixed in and 34º up there and mainly rain w/ some flakes mixed in at 36º down here in the city at ~700'. It'll be interesting to see when the city flips to all snow tonight.

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54 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Expecting the worst but hoping for the best here... at least it's dropped to 38 and isn't still above 40 like around Hartford.

Yeah, I'm down to 37 here in Plainville. I am up a little bit in elevation. I'm so curious what I'm going to wake up to. But wake up to just rain then I'll know we're not going to get much snow, but if I wake up to snow or at least a mix then I think that we can get a little pasting tomorrow

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