MarkO Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Snowing at Wachusett. No surprise there. https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ 37.6/35.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 21z RAP just got more bullish for EMA, with 2"/hr rate between 14z and 18z, a total of 8" in that time frame here. Similar outcome in other areas of EMA. LOL, the 22z RAP just cut back on that to 5" for that 4 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, MarkO said: Snowing at Wachusett. No surprise there. https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ 37.6/35.2 congrats to the high interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I doubt higher. Think 6ish is reasonable for you guys. The entire area from you down to Hartford on I-84 is probably my biggest uncertainty right now. I could see a bit of everything. Overperformer western areas and underperformer east. I think ORH on east has true red flags south of MA border. Concerned with the extent of that dryslot. Would be horrific combination of marginal boundary layer, and poor snow growth rates. Northwest Connecticut to the Berkshires has been targeted as sweet spot for days. The real enigma has been valleys, and Eastern New England. Further North and West you are, that dryslot and warm air is out of the picture. Looks great for Rt. 2 higher elevations no matter what. The real question is Eastern MA, valleys. Those are absolute wildcards. It's not like the temperatures aloft are super warm. It's very marginal there too. If we can overcome that with rates; look out. A weenie's dream = waking up tomorrow to isothermal man snow bomb. I have also noticed pretty impressive 7h look for CT on the backside of this thing. Considering the fact cold air is driving south, and the storm is stalling offshore, that could mean a nice finish for many in the interior of Southern New England. It's important to note the wild spread in solutions still at this close range. If modeling is struggling this much, means we really have some uncertainty on the table. Surface temperatures need to be watched like a hawk this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, MarkO said: Snowing at Wachusett. No surprise there. https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ 37.6/35.2 Great to see them getting snow. Waaaaa wa wa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Massplow said: How do you feel about your map in eastern ma? Boston to providence corridor? Nervous...could go either way. Trusted my gut...famous last words, this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Here is the 18z RGEM 7h vertical velocity. Pretty nice banding signal here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Inland winds looking pretty unimpressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Any of these maps over 18" are clown town. Rein it in guys. Bufkit which takes all the layers and figures out snow ratios has 33.3 inches at ORH fwiw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Here is the 18z RGEM 7h vertical velocity. Pretty nice banding signal here. The 18z NAM 7h vertical velocity. Check out the comma head structure that goes up 91 in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bufkit which takes all the layers and figures out snow ratios has 33.3 inches at ORH fwiw Run that for KLWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH snowing now too. (Airport says 36 but it’s actually about 34 with their warm bias and all the mesonets around them are 33-34) It's only going to take it 10 hours to move 10 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Run that for KLWM? KHAY too? You know what I mean lol. Don't want to sit out like Kev. GFS bufkit is 1.5 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hey John... do you have a snow map out or outline of amounts you’re thinking? Hey Kevin... For this system, I've used a list by county and in most cases have broken the counties up into north / south zones, as well as higher v. lower elevations. Given the tremendous variations expected across short distances due to elevation changes, even within some individual districts like yours; my superintendent groups actually prefer the list range compared to a contoured map in setups like this. My take is a bit more bullish (by an inch or 2) in the central valley zone compared to some other numbers I've seen... For your area, I let the 10-14 inch zone cross the I-84 corridor by a smidge and let 14+ number get a bit closer to the MA/CT border area of Tolland Cty. The most volatile areas I think are the sharp gradients across western Hartford Cty, far northern New Haven Cty and the southern Litchfield Cty into northern Fairfield Cty area. I also think southern Tolland Cty into far northern New London Cty is going to be interesting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Inland winds looking pretty unimpressive. Glad I didn't prep any trees for felling. Would have spent the rest of the week slinging rope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's only going to take it 10 hours to move 10 miles east. 37 here. This one's making me a little nervous. Hoping to get through the year without shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bufkit which takes all the layers and figures out snow ratios has 33.3 inches at ORH fwiw I would be dumbfounded if that verified for ORH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Will be interesting watching this develop tomorrow. Looks like we'll be in the right front quadrant of that low as it pinwheels into Cape Ann. Still thinking around 8-10 final here but winds may be the bigger story. School decided to do an early release thinking it won't be snowing until tomorrow afternoon...not sure about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: KHAY too? You know what I mean lol. Don't want to sit out like Kev. GFS bufkit is 1.5 ugh LOL GFS is worse than I thought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 This looks different than their other map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Man Litchfield county looks prime for pound town tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, kdxken said: 37 here. This one's making me a little nervous. Hoping to get through the year without shoveling. Despite being squarely in the 6-12 zone, I'm gaining confidence it won't be too much. If you don't shovel, it'll be melted by Friday anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 My six-model weighted consensus is fairly optimistic for snow potential because it avoids the widest loops but also pulls in the most snow-unfriendly lingering lows in west. Even so I don't see much reason to go against consensus around here, just would say I am 2-4" on the positive side of some forecasts I've been reading. As for ORH and 33" that is logical if one assumes QPF of 3.3" and 10:1 all snow result, or 4.1" and 8:1. Probably all components of those are off, would say 3.0" 80% snow at 8:1 . And that boils down to a snowfall at ORH of 19.2" but my prediction is 15-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL GFS is worse than I thought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I just took a quick drive up by my parent's house on Winter Hill (~920' up on the Worcester/Holden line). It's mainly snow w/ some rain mixed in and 34º up there and mainly rain w/ some flakes mixed in at 36º down here in the city at ~700'. It'll be interesting to see when the city flips to all snow tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Here is the 18z RGEM 7h vertical velocity. Pretty nice banding signal here. Hard not to like that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Johnno said: Man Litchfield county looks prime for pound town tonight I know. They're going to rip all night. What elevation are you at in Canton? Our weather watcher in Wolcott is flipping over now at 1kft. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks god it was more consolidated! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 54 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Expecting the worst but hoping for the best here... at least it's dropped to 38 and isn't still above 40 like around Hartford. Yeah, I'm down to 37 here in Plainville. I am up a little bit in elevation. I'm so curious what I'm going to wake up to. But wake up to just rain then I'll know we're not going to get much snow, but if I wake up to snow or at least a mix then I think that we can get a little pasting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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