40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Super borderline in the BL looking at the soundings but def looks like a pretty epic paste bomb from late morning through the afternoon even in your hood verbatim. No...GFS and NAM would result in very little snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, BostonWX said: That track brings a nice flood of warmer marine area into BOS and Essex county later afternoon tomorrow let's gooo! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Snowfall gradient is gone from more laitudinal this AM, like 3-5-01, to now more longitudinal...like Dec 96, Bliz 88 (not using it as an analog). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM and GFS both very similar with the low parked on the north shore at 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I need to hope that is overdone, as it often is...but if that's right, I have wasted a lot of time on a final call that will be toilet paper in the end....non event. See ya next fall. IF that's right, yeah definitely. Honestly I lost interest *here* once it wasn't going to be 12" +, even 6-8" would be pretty meh since it'll just melt /compact pretty much immediately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 This is what I tried to tell people who were trying to brain wash me into rooting for a more consolidated low...it helps areas to the west, that are porked by the nipple low....but now that that is consolidated east faster, its deeper and back in more to screw me. Alot of pro mets this AM just completely could not comprehend that...funny part is, now they will used that as an excuse to say they were right about my map being too high for this area...no shit, because what I said would suck for me it it happened, indeed took place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, mattm4242 said: One day Cape Ann will get its revenge. One day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Thar initial "nipple low" to the west was saving my ass..sure, it causes some southerly flow, but that is more damaging lower in latitude and to the west...point is, the more consolidated low backing in more is more detrimental to this area than the H925 s flow from the nipple low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Yay...the low tracks overhead, my blizzard is saved I need to hope the retro shit is overdone, which it often is...but that is the trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Reggie snow map from 18z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: weird pivotal is different One is valid at 15z, the other is 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Herpes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I tried to tell people who were trying to brain wash me into rooting for a more consolidated low...it helps areas to the west, that are porked by the nipple low....but now that that is consolidated east faster, its deeper and back in more to screw me. Alot of pro mets this AM just completely could not comprehend that...funny part is, now they will used that as an excuse to say they were right about my map being too high for this area...no shit, because what I said would suck for me it it happened, indeed took place. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: One day Cape Ann will get its revenge. One day. It’s the little smile that gets me, his descent into madness. Will have to root for the herpes. 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Herpes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Ray lows pivoting in were part of the reason many of us didn't feel comfortable about ern mass. But also the nipple low absolutely torched lower levels even in ern areas. Those solutions had the low pivot all the way into Bar Harbor with meager amounts of snow outside the ORH hills and south of SNH. With a consolidated low, you'll have a much better shot at the CCB in most of the area. Maybe extreme ern areas play with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 A faster consolidated low also has to do with the s/w in question, and this is independent of the inv trough. There are so many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, mattm4242 said: It’s the little smile that gets me, his descent into madness. Will have to root for the herpes. It really smokes you guys with the CCB eventually. First round is all a wash but eventually gets there with the CCB right on the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Herpes. That's wild...ORH gets skunked with less than BOS, but only a few miles away from 20+. Brain cannot compute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 i bet a lot of the issues wouldn't exist if the gulf stream weren't 5-10 degrees above normal and/or there was an arctic airmass involved with the digging s/w 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray lows pivoting in were part of the reason many of us didn't feel comfortable about ern mass. But also the nipple low absolutely torched lower levels even in ern areas. Those solutions had the low pivot all the way into Bar Harbor with meager amounts of snow outside the ORH hills and south of SNH. With a consolidated low, you'll have a much better shot at the CCB in most of the area. Maybe extreme ern areas play with fire. I just don't agree...you can see that the GFS consolidates faster, and backs in further...when it was more of the inverted trough look, it didn't back in like that. These recent runs are unequivocally worse here than the ones early this AM. Apparently BOX agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, wx_observer said: That's wild...ORH gets skunked with less than BOS, but only a few miles away from 20+. Brain cannot compute. The maps are wild today because it’s having like two separate events over laid. The first warm moist push, then there’s the CCB which is like a separate event entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Ryan laying everything out well tonight on the forecast, emphasis on the sharp drop offs over short distances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i bet a lot of the issues wouldn't exist if the gulf stream weren't 5-10 degrees above normal and/or there was an arctic airmass involved with the digging s/w Yea, normally I get away with a great deal if late season marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A faster consolidated low also has to do with the s/w in question, and this is independent of the inv trough. There are so many moving parts. How are you leaning tonight? Which scenario do you see as more likely or do we really still not know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Herpes. There's a big pimple erupting over Cape Ann. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Johnno said: Ryan laying everything out well tonight on the forecast, emphasis on the sharp drop offs over short distances Thank you! I feel pretty confident about the hills and even your area. Valley around Hartford/BDL is a tough call. My gut says mainly rain but wouldn't take much to flip over for a few hours of paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Toss that...with that track, less makes sense here. I'm already getting a dash of cat paws with these light rain drops at a raw 38 ... Hate to sound like a goober but it really does smell like it out there. I'm not going the other way around here. If this comes down hard after dark, it's snow - no question. I just have difficulty believing in this situation that you're area has to be that much different. I almost feel that that the pivoting of the rain/snow into N/S axis during today could just be an artifact of this present rendition of noise - I mean the GFS isn't necessarily constrained by physics into having to plow a warm micro node into NE Mass like that ... it's just randomness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Herpes. That would raise me a few letter grades for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Thank you! I feel pretty confident about the hills and even your area. Valley around Hartford/BDL is a tough call. My gut says mainly rain but wouldn't take much to flip over for a few hours of paste. how is your confidence out here in the land of Luke and I? It is nice seeing the banding showing up out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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