ROOSTA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Pilot to bombardier: Give me a vector Victor and don't call me Shirley! This is going to be fun watching it unfold. Target insight and it's going to be explosive bomb equipped with an eye and spiral banding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 GFS bufkit (12z) for BDL. You can see the dry slot make an a few appearances, but other then that when it rips it rips. Gotta like some of the trends for CCB to go across the valley. And FWIW GFS 2m is ~33 for BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Href qpf gone wild That's a little concerning because it does show the Greenfield-Brattleboro shadow screw zone. Along with the Keene, N Adams, Pittsfield, Bennington and Albany shadow screw zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Is that a good thing for SNE? Could be either.. heh. I mean, that's the N/stream part of this phasing. There's not much that can be gleaned from that loop, as to how it will perform down stream - unfortunately. But, having it actually there and impressive means there will be a performance - I suppose it's good for that reason alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Rap looks good. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at! ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in. Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions. It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff... There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours. I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts... That being said, it is great for forum chatter... Very true but even just using what most use and going 20% nam and 40% gfs and 40% euro. This forecast is a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: there's the demon 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Very true but even just using what most use and going 20% nam and 40% gfs and 40% euro. This forecast is a nightmare. We can't even get a semi-consistent Euro run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at! ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in. Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions. It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff... There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours. I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts... That being said, it is great for forum chatter... Yea. I've always though too much data can be a detriment, especially if they increase the delta. Regardless though, you will crush snows at 1.1k in Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 RAP is crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sweet a moderate dot right over me!!!! Whether it be a possible derecho or heavy, wet snow I always make sure to take time looking at the trees outside and wondering how many of them won't be there come tomorrow You live on talcott mountain? 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The little minicane off the NC coast is a factor in mucking this up. that's our main surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 So far every single models been hugged or thrown away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: You live on talcott mountain? that's our main surface low Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Well...this might tell you where the NWS is headed in their afternoon update for the Hartford area lol... TERMINAL FORECAST BDL NWS 131730 KBDL 131727Z 1318/1424 12010KT P6SM VCSH BKN026 OVC040 FM132000 11009KT P6SM -RA OVC015 FM132200 09009KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC008 FM140800 04014G23KT 1SM RA BR OVC008 FM141200 03018G31KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008 FM141500 01021G35KT 1/2SM -RA OVC008 FM142000 35023G38KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, JC-CT said: that's our main surface low Exactly. We need it to wrap in sooner and more nw keeping the second nip over LI at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: So far every single models been hugged or thrown away. You’re trying really hard to turn this into a NNE deal. I will give you kudos for that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Springfield oh sht lol I didn't realize you moved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can't even get a semi-consistent Euro run. Or any model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re trying really hard to turn this into a NNE deal. I will give you kudos for that It’s always been snow here 6 to 10” not hard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 This is a disaster, and most definitely one of the worst sagas I've seen. Thoughts and prayers to those who have to make an official forecast. I had no interest in being burned by this, and I'd gladly take a 3-6" event. I didn't need the 20-24" regardless of how lovely it would be. This winter? I'll take anything. Now? Thanks for the 3-6" of rain. At least our poor little crocus won't be harmed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: It’s always been snow here 6 to 12” not hard. Well that's an enjoyable mindset to be in. Like NWCT into Berks sitting back, yawning, for 4 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Ok someone must be on a website that can post a 700 VV map at the height. Guaranteed that (pic) map in this case will tell a story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It’s always been snow here 6 to 12” not hard. People on the fringes lashing out. You hate to see it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 First time I've noticed not having a model subscription this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Getting into Nowcast time. Whats with the rain in SE Mass Btw? Neither 12Z NAM or GFS had any precip there now. Did any model have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well that's an enjoyable mindset to be in. Like NWCT into Berks sitting back, yawning, for 4 days... There has been areas that have been in the 12-18"+ for a few days, That has not changed, Down by you its BL issues, Up here its been lack of qpf but the big numbers were and are never going to happen no matter what happens, And really, If i could get it to go to NW Maine, All the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: Getting into Nowcast time. Whats with the rain in SE Mass Btw? Neither 12Z NAM or GFS had any precip there now. Models have had showers across the region all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: People on the fringes lashing out. You hate to see it. We were never jacking up here and usually don't, Were on the fringe here and have been all along, I just didn't waste 3-4 days chasing ghost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: It’s always been snow here 6 to 10” not hard. No qualms about that my man. Out of curiosity what are you thinking this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Been having light snow off and on most of today so far up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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