The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah I'm not far from right where RT 2 hits 1000', so I'm typically right on edge of the good stuff. My folks are a couple miles west with another 150'+ or so of elevation.  Makes a difference. In my experience the change over typically happens at the drug rehab place on RT 2. 

12" is not that crazy, but 24"+ is wild, especially if it's glop.  That's for the berks though.  We good for keeping power. 

20 or more could happen around here if things break right   

[Hailstoned]

32 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Well said... But I thought it was "Beware Romulans bearing gifts"

I believe it is the Greeks to beware of bringing something prettily wrapped-- like a great big horse

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Final Call map
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

Rain for many areas changes to snow Tuesday PM and rages all evening. Expect some power outages with this one due to combo of big winds and wet snow.

 

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, 3k NAM went insane over eastern areas tomorrow....I think there's a bit of chasing with that sfc low position....clearly the best dynamics are well southwest of it.

What’s really interesting is the 3K had been more meager.  Flipped with the 12K.

[MarkO]

[greenmtnwx]

Anyone need a room in Wardsboro, VT at 1,800’?

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This would be an all-time Ray melt

Bridge closing preparations are already under way in Methuen...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah my point is that the 6z Euro isn't necessarily a crushing for you. It's just a mild solution overall. 

We'll see.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

looks good

[MuddyWx]

try to spot the difference!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Anyone need a room in Wardsboro, VT at 1,800’?

Any secret underground rooms there like other places in southern Vermont?

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Bingo...I posted something similar last night (or maybe it was earlier this morning, who knows anymore). But it seemed like there was one supercell the HRRR/Euro were latching on to and going wonkers with the associated vorticity. It's not like there is expected to be a tremendous amount of convection...enough anyways to make me believe that this will becoming dominant with an east tug

It can happen though, too..  I mean that's what I was saying a while ago, all these solutions are plausible.  It's not about impossibility. 

I recall a coastal monitoring effort not too many years ago...  within the last five, where there was 'convective robbing' and most thought it was grid scale feed-back but it turned out to be the case that a conglomerate of convection erupted escaping the SE coast and we had to sit there and watch and say, 'well, guess it was real'  I remember thinking it was a pretty damn fantastic model performance to initiate convection and use it to force the synoptic evolution -

It doesn't mean that's the case for this thing.  Situations are not the same. This really has just an off the hook 500 mb/ ml evolution potentiality and it's ability to force matters below is quite impressive.  It's a matter of tuning in the guidance -

[JC-CT]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

try to spot the difference!

[dendrite]

My 0.5km NAM has it hitting Nova Scotia. 

[George001]

Could the October storm we had in 2011 be a decent analog for this? I remember there was a sharp gradient with that one, I got half a foot or so, just to my SE got barely anything and NW areas (especially elevation) really got buried, 2 feet plus. That storm lacked cold like this one and created it’s own cold air.

[JC-CT]

Some of these solutions (12z FV3 in particular) look pretty crazy for winds and coastal flooding

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Could the October storm we had in 2011 be a decent analog for this? I remember there was a sharp gradient with that one, I got half a foot or so, just to my SE got barely anything and NW areas (especially elevation) really got buried, 2 feet plus. That storm lacked cold like this one and created it’s own cold air.

Oct11 did not lack a cold high and did not ‘make it’s own cold’ lol. You can’t do big snows in mid Fall in SNE without a stout arctic cold source. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It can happen though, too..  I mean that's what I was saying a while ago, all these solutions are plausible.  It's not about impossibility. 

I recall a coastal monitoring effort not too many years ago...  within the last five, where there was 'convective robbing' and most thought it was grid scale feed-back but it turned out to be the case that a conglomerate of convection erupted escaping the SE coast and we had to sit there and watch and say, 'well, guess it was real'  I remember thinking it was a pretty damn fantastic model performance to initiate convection and use it to force the synoptic evolution -

It doesn't mean that's the case for this thing.  Situations are not the same. This really has just an off the hook 500 mb/ ml evolution potentiality and it's ability to force matters below is quite impressive.  It's a matter of tuning in the guidance -

Yup...it totally can happen, that's why it's just not good to throw away or discard any solution right now. 

I wonder if there is research or literature out there regarding these scenarios. It does seem the past few years we've seemed to be robbed more times then not with these "convective low". I'm sure though the mid and upper-level dynamics play a significant role in whether the convective low becomes the dominant one or not. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What are you expecting?

 

28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah my point is that the 6z Euro isn't necessarily a crushing for you. It's just a mild solution overall. 

The 06z euro actually trended a tic colder (vs 18z, not 00z..much mistake) here at H925 warmest point, which is what I would expect given even heavier rates of precipitation. Unless the model is wrong, I am getting over 1 foor of snow. Even the positive depth map has me at a foot...that is a very reasonable floor.

[amarshall]

It's time

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Last time I chased to route 9 in S vT the hotel turned air Bnb lost power right away and there was just a naked guy a floor above me who stood behind his door and said “I spoke to owner and it will be back soon “ . I knocked bc it was the only room with lights (Candles apparently ) lol . I’m afraid to go back to S vt

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Fits my thinking 

[Warwick WX]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Probably best case at this point for CT?

Sign me up for a flip near midday tomorrow, that would be best case for RI.  I'm expecting more of a late evening flip with 3" or so of paste, melting within 24 hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Last time I chased to route 9 in S vT the hotel turned air Bnb lost power right away and there was just a naked guy a floor above me who stood behind his door and said “I spoke to owner and it will be back soon “ . I knocked bc it was the only room with lights (Candles apparently ) lol . I’m afraid to go back to S vt

Dilf on Brokeback?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Last time I chased to route 9 in S vT the hotel turned air Bnb lost power right away and there was just a naked guy a floor above me who stood behind his door and said “I spoke to owner and it will be back soon “ . I knocked bc it was the only room with lights (Candles apparently ) lol . I’m afraid to go back to S vt

Lol. If you want to be buried in Mitch’s backyard, go for it. I’d be too scared to chase snow and end up like John Wayne Gacy’s victims though. 

[Spanks45]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. 
 

I pray I am wrong.

I will say this, every single model has shown something different, every 6 hours...So honestly who knows. Nowcast time, with a side of model watching. The 3k has disagreed with its cousin the entire time, except for maybe 12z yesterday. Not saying we are getting much if anything, but it is really close to at least "something"....Nam sort of, kind of looks like the GFS @ 6z, so there is something at least

[jaf]

So RI and SE MA this is likely mostly a rainstorm, correct?  Not much reason to follow it anymore?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now, you want to tell me you think it will end up a milder outcome than the EURO....okay, then I am listening. But telling me that that 06z Euro run is under 1 foot here here is just wrong.

Period. 

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Last time I chased to route 9 in S vT the hotel turned air Bnb lost power right away and there was just a naked guy a floor above me who stood behind his door and said “I spoke to owner and it will be back soon “ . I knocked bc it was the only room with lights (Candles apparently ) lol . I’m afraid to go back to S vt

I remember when you told us that story.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

The 06z euro actually trended a tic colder here at H925 warmest point, which is what I would expect with even heavier rates of precipitation. Unless the model is wrong, I am getting over 1 foor of snow. Even the positive depth map has me at a foot...that is a very reasonable floor.

That's the 18z Euro not the 0z euro on the right but I agree with your overall point. My thought when I looked at the 6z this morning was also that it's an absolute crushing in the sense that it's just puking cement but if we're defining crushing as highest totals obviously elevated spots favored.