CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks great here. I meant for true crushing. In theory, you should do well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, JC-CT said: nah, 12km NAM is on an island Literally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. I pray I am wrong. We're certainly fighting time, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I meant for true crushing. In theory, you should do well. I don't agree with you. 06z Euro is best run yet for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I mean the precip shield is way back to the NYK boarder despite the surface low location. Upper low doing this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was obvious early on that it was going to get its act together a bit earlier....which is what helps with all the conveyors maturing quicker and giving a monster CCB to a lot of SNE. Was just talking to John ... we both agree the lacking/amorphously defined b-c axis likely causing the models like to Euro to " go out a find" anything it can to place a low. Usually some supercell out there in the ocean...etc. Not sure if that makes the NAM more believable, but it certainly a reasonable consideration.. the 32 km has a better deep layer integration ( I think this is true ) than the 3km, because it considers a larger volume of total domain space... When coupling that concept with a superior overall meshing, it may make this circumstance 'in its wheelhouse' so to speak. This is also what/why Dec 2009 was handled so well by the this model's ancestor version - it detected that b-c wall with pin point precision because it was like 20C across 10 lateral miles along a line between NJ and ACK that faithful day. Gee, where's the low going to rail along, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Looking more and more like 10-15'' or so up here than the 6-12'' I was thinking yesterday. We 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I mean wayyyy different in the LP location. I'm just wondering why are these models so all over the place? And just this one model, what is the difference of the 3k over the 12k? Is one more trusting than the other. Of course the 12k would be the one of choice lol. I've never seen models this bad this close to a storm. The second thing is the storm off North Carolina forming. It really has a nice circuit. A little eye already. Is that a sign that the storm is going to consolidate more as it moves up? It's there. It's happening right now, is that a game changer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3K would work in ern areas. So If I were in metro BOS I want two things. 1) Ideally a consolidated low like the 12z NAM yesterday parked near the elbow or even in CC Bay. That works. 2) If we dong, get the low to pivot into just east of BOS like last nights runs did. I honestly can see arguments for any solution, even ones pivoting into metro west. You are trying to time the mating of the nrn and srn stream abd where that occurs will dictate both the inv trough and also where the low pivots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't agree with you. 06z Euro is best run yet for me. Semantics I guess. I still watch the boundary layer there for a time. Don't worry, I'm not taking your snow...just my judgement. You still get hit good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Was just talking to John ... we both agree the lacking/amorphously defined b-c axis likely causing the models like to Euro to " go out a find" anything it can to place a low. Usually some supercell out there in the ocean...etc. Not sure if that makes the NAM more believable, but it certainly a reasonable consideration.. the 32 km has a better deep layer integration ( I think this is true ) than the 3km, because it considers a larger volume of total domain space... When coupling the concept with a superior overall meshing, it may make this circumstance 'in its wheelhouse' so to speak. This is also what Dec 2009 was handled so well by the this models' ancestry - it hit that b-c wall with pin point precision because it was like 20C across 10 miles betwee NJ and ACK that faithful day. Gee, where's the low going to rail along, right? Bingo...I posted something similar last night (or maybe it was earlier this morning, who knows anymore). But it seemed like there was one supercell the HRRR/Euro were latching on to and going wonkers with the associated vorticity. It's not like there is expected to be a tremendous amount of convection...enough anyways to make me believe that this will becoming dominant with an east tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Any clowns for us on phones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Looking more and more like 10-15'' or so up here than the 6-12'' I was thinking yesterday. We Some here are more in this mode... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 06z EURO pins that fire hose right over me, as opposed to just south...in December, that porks me....not in March, as long as mid levels hold, which they do and dynamics will be off charts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06z EURO pins that fire those right over me, as opposed to just south...in December, that porks me....not in March, as long as mid levels hold, which they do and dynamics will be off charts. Boundary layer still looks pretty marginal up your way on the Euro. A bit of elevation would definitely help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I mean the precip shield is way back to the NYK boarder despite the surface low location. Upper low doing this? Yeah...I posted in the NYC forum how on 2/8/13 we were snowing heavy here with a surface low over Cape Cod at 06z. you can get a mass expansion of the snow shield in the window when there is a close off and full phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06z EURO pins that fire hose right over me, as opposed to just south...in December, that porks me....not in March, as long as mid levels hold, which they do and dynamics will be off charts. Good luck. I think you’ll end up doing better than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Do not look at 12z HRRR. There are some 3' amounts in them their Hills of W Ma. A thing of beauty! Two feet or Bust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I think we're good Ray. We'll flip just after daybreak when it starts cranking. 12 hours of 1+" rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Boundary layer still looks pretty marginal up your way on the Euro. A bit of elevation would definitely help. I understand its marginal..that's been establsihed for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ROOSTA said: Do not look at 12z HRRR. There are some 3' amount in them their Hills of W Ma. A thing of beauty! Two feet or Bust! all models really crushing here now.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Biggest question I have is how far east along that corridor does it stay substantial... Leominster? Harvard? Yeah I'm not far from right where RT 2 hits 1000', so I'm typically right on edge of the good stuff. My folks are a couple miles west with another 150'+ or so of elevation. Makes a difference. In my experience the change over typically happens at the drug rehab place on RT 2. 12" is not that crazy, but 24"+ is wild, especially if it's glop. That's for the berks though. We good for keeping power. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 41 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said: Game over? Hopefully not, but I have no confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 someone should initiate an obs/now-cast thread for this event. Like 200 pages isn't enough...I think we've beat the horse enough anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not quite done yet. Good to see the Greens getting a well-deserved dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand its marginal..that's been establsihed for a week. What are you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Lol, 3k NAM went insane over eastern areas tomorrow....I think there's a bit of chasing with that sfc low position....clearly the best dynamics are well southwest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: What are you expecting? His map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What are you expecting? I put out a forecast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand its marginal..that's been establsihed for a week. Yeah my point is that the 6z Euro isn't necessarily a crushing for you. It's just a mild solution overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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