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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Probably best case at this point for CT?

image.thumb.png.bc94328eea74aea0237b8dbf9a605c6b.png

I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more -

Thanks. I am pulling for everyone, even though ATM I am in the worst location in SWCT.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM continues to be the only model looking like a textbook HECS.

You know Brian ...I hate to say ( but secretly enjoy the opportunity ) but the NAM's (32 may be better, too - ironically) superior meshing may be able to "pick" a focal point for a low to "anchor"

that latter aspect ( I just posted a popsicle headache that will surely scroll without many noticing) is causing the models et al ( I feel pretty strongly) to spray solution shit all over the wall on this thing.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not happening James…unfortunately. 

If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. 

My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. 

If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which this next model series will suck, guaranteed !

There will be one model in the bunch that looks just about like a soulmate to the imaginations of the winter enthusiast, while all the others are varying degrees of angst and dither.

The reason for this plaguing lack of consensus has become pretty clear - to me. 

This is for sake of discussion ... a perfect 500 mb evolution taking place over a hugely flawed low level environment. ...and by "flawed," we mean lacking a coherent baroclinic boundary/ ...thermodynamic intersection.

It's rather amorphous, don't you think ?  when there isn't a whole helluva lot of substantive difference between the sounding at BTV vs ACK.

That circumstance is causing all kinds of problems with 'where to place' the low; that placement is necessary to more than less, "anchor" the total vertical vortex evolution. Without it, the models are quite figuratively if not literally ... spraying solutions by way of where ever the fractals of their complex physics happen to emerge a position in both space and time. 

This represents certain challenges to determinism for one, but a low will certainly develop out of the morass.  It's likely that we are at modeling limit when faced with those challenges and will have to just wait and see... Or, perhaps they will all suddenly coalesce in the 18 ... 12, or 6 hour window

There's a pretty nice signature developing on satellite off the 'Linas. Time to keep an eye on that

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. 

My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. 

If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense 

Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. 
 

I pray I am wrong.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. 
 

I pray I am wrong.

nah, 12km NAM is on an island

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