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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

When the conversation turns to capitalism you know the storm went to sht 

yup haha and all the guffaw ... but, the capitalism banter was under the auspices of "while we are waiting for the next model runs"  - just sayn'

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah.

I know I already stated BUT Forky did say a few days ago "this could easily jackpot Maine". I wonder how he was able to see that back then?

I know I said it about 100 pages ago, but these stall & capture storms….the “loop” always occurs later than modeled. 

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

While we're waiting on the next d-drip dose ( lol ...) ...

 ...I still find it interesting ( timing ) how the Euro corp recently relaxed a lot of their policies on free dissemination of a lot of their product suite, right around the time these performance issues began scratching heads. Thus, making the access less useful to the those seeing the free dissemination of said product suite.

It comes off to me as marketing strategy because they know the GFS/GEFs technology, for all our varied criticisms has become competitive enough to loosen their testicle grip on a purchasing world requiring accuracy. That's my paranoid conspiracy theory ... ha.  But it's the kind of move that's not atypical in capitalism warfare; they are stuck having to plan for the possibility down the road of their own obsolescence.

That barb about 'scoring big in Scandinavia' ?   sure... they're running the version that scores well, closer to populism for a "Euro-based products" and the users there will entrust in the cache of that familiarity ... So, they free up access to a lot of product suite in the off chance that the JV version of their product we are all getting will still be good enough for at least some market share ... and putting more of their eggs in better profit outlook closer to home when using that strategy. 

I just don't know why the free lunch.  The moral of the old adage, 'there is no such thing as -' is really more like 'beware Romans bearing gifts' in this context.

Well said... But I thought it was "Beware Romulans bearing gifts" :D

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Which this next model series will suck, guaranteed !

There will be one model in the bunch that looks just about like a soulmate to the imaginations of the winter enthusiast, while all the others are varying degrees of angst and dither.

The reason for this plaguing lack of consensus has become pretty clear - to me. 

This is for sake of discussion ... a perfect 500 mb evolution taking place over a hugely flawed low level environment. ...and by "flawed," we mean lacking a coherent baroclinic boundary/ ...thermodynamic intersection.

It's rather amorphous, don't you think ?  when there isn't a whole helluva lot of substantive difference between the sounding at BTV vs ACK.

That circumstance is causing all kinds of problems with 'where to place' the low; that placement is necessary to more than less, "anchor" the total vertical vortex evolution. Without it, the models are quite figuratively if not literally ... spraying solutions by way of where ever the fractals of their complex physics happen to emerge a position in both space and time. 

This represents certain challenges to determinism for one, but a low will certainly develop out of the morass.  It's likely that we are at modeling limit when faced with those challenges and will have to just wait and see... Or, perhaps they will all suddenly coalesce in the 18 ... 12, or 6 hour window

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