STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 My guess is the vorticity off SE coast may have trended a little stronger this am /lately @OceanStWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: You guys have been telling me how good it is with these…it’s leading the way. Lmao. It sucks! Period. Can’t keep a solution to save its ass. Not that the others have been any better. But I don’t want to hear how good it is anymore…cuz it isn’t. JAM. Well, it could score here. I wouldn't write it off. It may be onto something. But I was referring to how jumpy it has been for that model. However, it might just be that this system is quite dynamic, and even that model is prone to jumps here. Just was surprised, especially with a mean shift this close on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My guess is the vorticity off SE coast may have trended a little stronger this am /lately @OceanStWx? That would tuck it in more. This is shooting east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Logic to me is a sub 925 passing under us with tremendous crashing heights would inflict a colder solution to the coast. Yea. I guess we toss models today and nowcast. It’s so marginal in so many areas, the bust potential is high in both directions. I would love to send you a bag of gummies… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 06Z GFS looks reasonable to me. Let's just go with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: Wow what a trend at this range… . Still a minority cluster holding tight east of the Cape, at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The nrn stream is a bit faster, and srn stream a bit further east compared to the run from 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: People keep referring to this has having a 'high bust potential' Busting what, though? I don't know what they think will bust when every solution is on the table and almost equally plausible here. I think people have it sort of instilled in their deeper mentality that a big snow event not happening, must be a bust. But that's not really( in the philosophical sense) fair to pin that on models when they are all demonstrating pour continuity. If folks' expectations are high, and that is not fulfilled, pure logic would thus dictate in a situation such as this, that it is their expectation that is busting... IF that's what we mean by bust for a system that has vast spread and continuity problems, than sure - but ... we can certainly control our expectations? That's on us. You’re right, I could have worded better and I tried in the post below. I love my backyard and stuff but I’m looking at this purely from a forecasting perspective right now. Dead serious now. I think we’ve done an excellent job conveying the spread and uncertainty to our followers, but for me, it’s deeply concerning to see that this could really go either way. A less wintry scenario here is fine—people just go to school. But I really do worry about waking up tomorrow and people are unprepared for a far more impactful event on the wintry side. Not to be hyperbolic, but that could be disastrous. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The less models the better imo but the euro should roll back several upgrades instead lol. I’m sure it scores really well at H5 in Scandinavia. While we're waiting on the next d-drip dose ( lol ...) ... ...I still find it interesting ( timing ) how the Euro corp recently relaxed a lot of their policies on free dissemination of a lot of their product suite, right around the time these performance issues began scratching heads. Thus, making the access less useful to the those seeing the free dissemination of said product suite. It comes off to me as marketing strategy because they know the GFS/GEFs technology, for all our varied criticisms has become competitive enough to loosen their testicle grip on a purchasing world requiring accuracy. That's my paranoid conspiracy theory ... ha. But it's the kind of move that's not atypical in capitalism warfare; they are stuck having to plan for the possibility down the road of their own obsolescence. That barb about 'scoring big in Scandinavia' ? sure... they're running the version that scores well, closer to populism for a "Euro-based products" and the users there will entrust in the cache of that familiarity ... So, they free up access to a lot of product suite in the off chance that the JV version of their product we are all getting will still be good enough for at least some market share ... and putting more of their eggs in better profit outlook closer to home when using that strategy. I just don't know why the free lunch. The moral of the old adage, 'there is no such thing as -' is really more like 'beware Romans bearing gifts' in this context. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That would tuck it in more. This is shooting east. No I don’t mean Coastal by hatteras , I mean the vorticity About 300 miles well off shore S.C area heading even further toward Bermuda the offshore vorticity ocean street Yesterday showed was was weak and would not support a surface low well East , my guess is That is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Come to papa. One of a myriad of possibilities that we are going to simply watch, unfolds, not forecast. Yup. This will come down to where the banding and any pivot points set up. Feasts a town or two away from famines... Radar nowcast for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 There is not much point model hugging this close to the storm, but the 12Z HRRR is East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Was looking back to last couple of GFS/EURO runs all of them were not consolidating the lows and swinging the primary out to the east. That said the 6Z Euro was a pretty big jump in this time frame. That isn't too far from just rain to mostly dryslot here. IMHO the ship has sailed as far having one strong low close to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 HRRRR still rolling here is latest panel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 HRRR looking a tic colder back this way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: Wow what a trend at this range… . Euro has been awful with this storm and all winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR looking a tic colder back this way Yes but its going to join the less snowy models with a nasty dry slot.. Unlike the 6z which didn't have it.. Edit the dry slot fills in after 2-4 hours.. lets see if that actually happens 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes but its going to join the less snowy models with a nasty dry slot.. Unlike the 6z which didn't have it.. It did seem a tick colder and then it went to screwing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That front end is cooling a bit on HRRR....crushes high terrain even down to Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 there's actually flakes flying right now in Winsted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 What a nasty dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: It did seem a tick colder and then it went to screwing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That front end is cooling a bit on HRRR....crushes high terrain even down to Kevin Will do you have a dang read on this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR looking a tic colder back this way I am truly right on the divider between fun and tears. It could be very messy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 My big concern now is all the best dynamics will be pushing off the coast to the east really cutting down on snow totals even where it does snow if the trends continue. the 12Z euro maybe well send the primary into Nova Scotia xD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes but its going to join the less snowy models with a nasty dry slot.. Unlike the 6z which didn't have it.. yeah that sucks. It’s seems our best bet is if that deform band in ENY would come east and bit and catch us in WCT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said: I just listened to Bob Cox on WTIC and he went with with 1-6 from Springfield to New Haven in the valley. Must have made a huge change then. I listened to him at 5:40 and he was very detailed, more so than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: While we're waiting on the next d-drip dose ( lol ...) ... ...I still find it interesting ( timing ) how the Euro corp recently relaxed a lot of their policies on free dissemination of a lot of their product suite, right around the time these performance issues began scratching heads. Thus, making the access less useful to the those seeing the free dissemination of said product suite. It comes off to me as marketing strategy because they know the GFS/GEFs technology, for all our varied criticisms has become competitive enough to loosen their testicle grip on a purchasing world requiring accuracy. That's my paranoid conspiracy theory ... ha. But it's the kind of move that's not atypical in capitalism warfare; they are stuck having to plan for the possibility down the road of their own obsolescence. That barb about 'scoring big in Scandinavia' ? sure... they're running the version that scores well, closer to populism for a "Euro-based products" and the users there will entrust in the cache of that familiarity ... So, they free up access to a lot of product suite in the off chance that the JV version of their product we are all getting will still be good enough for at least some market share ... and putting more of their eggs in better profit outlook closer to home when using that strategy. I just don't know why the free lunch. The moral of the old adage, 'there is no such thing as -' is really more like 'beware Romans bearing gifts' in this context. Yea you mentioned this previously and I agree…capitalistic warfare can cause more harm then good. Good for the company, harm to the end user/consumer. You need the ‘right’ people in place to make big decisions, one that balances between chasing the dollar and putting people/consumers over profit. We’ve see plenty examples of this too but I resent taking us off course, a topic for a different day. Back to the chase…whatever it will lead to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: HRRRR still rolling here is latest panel Backing into BVY. Perfect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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