CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are your thoughts South of ORH in the hills? If the euro happens, it might be 3-6, 4-8 for you? You dryslot like hell. I hope not because that wide right turn messes with the QPH here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More like a donkey. Mini Pony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: how about dxr? Thanks! Unfortunately there is no bufkit location for dxr (dumb) and nothing relatively close. Closest would be HPN but I think that's bit too far southwest to be a good proxy. there probably would be dry slot concerns across much of CT for a time (GFS verbatim) but it seems like H7 would evolve in a nature which would get CT with good banding. I'm also noticing too that even on point-and-click soundings (plus bufkit profile locations), that soundings are colder then model 2M output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More like a donkey. It could be right. But man it’s jumpy even given the dynamics of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 One could hope that the 6z Euro is a blip. The 3K NAM would make most happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 EPS is similar. Take the horse and turn it into cat food. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Jesus what a mess. The mesos look far more impactful than the globals here in CT. High high bust potential. I think where you are the HRRR/3k ideas tomorrow are not that crazy but the snows it shows back as far as SW CT to me are probably bogus as the whole evolution of the storm IMO is too sloppy to produce that degree of snow coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 52 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Up and in. Come to papa. One of a myriad of possibilities that we are going to simply watch, unfolds, not forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Unfortunately there is no bufkit location for dxr (dumb) and nothing relatively close. Closest would be HPN but I think that's bit too far southwest to be a good proxy. there probably would be dry slot concerns across much of CT for a time (GFS verbatim) but it seems like H7 would evolve in a nature which would get CT with good banding. I'm also noticing too that even on point-and-click soundings (plus bufkit profile locations), that soundings are colder then model 2M output. That is odd....Thanks anyways. From a meteorological standpoint, it will be interesting to watch this storm unfold. I expect mostly rain here, but I would assume some fun "positive" busts are going to occur somewhere. Hopefully for all of CT of course, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Freak just smiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The EPS were pretty consistent in the 2.5-4.5 day range, then it just unraveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It could be right. But man it’s jumpy even given the dynamics of this. You just can’t ride it like we used to. It used to sniff out an evolution and make incremental adjustments which made it easier to forecast…but nowadays it jumps around like every other model. It’s JAM now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the euro happens, it might be 3-6, 4-8 for you? You dryslot like hell. I hope not because that wide right turn messes with the QPH here. So you buy that outlier idea? Were those eps ensembles like the op? It seemed like they were offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So you buy that outlier idea? Were those eps ensembles like the op? It seemed like they were offshore EPS similar idea to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s been your pick in FB for 12hrs…we waiting. I don't even get any notifications of when I'm next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You just can’t ride it like we used to. It used to sniff out an evolution and make incremental adjustments which made it easier to forecast…but nowadays it jumps around like every other model. It’s JAM now. The good news is its due for an upgrade soon...the bad news as a poster said here last night is the NAM is set to be discontinued perhaps....its fallen behind schedule since the plan was for the HRRR to run to 84 I believe, but as we've seen the HRRR often has a major BL cool bias beyond 18-24 and sometimes even a midlevel one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: That is odd....Thanks anyways. From a meteorological standpoint, it will be interesting to watch this storm unfold. I expect mostly rain here, but I would assume some fun "positive" busts are going to occur somewhere. Hopefully for all of CT of course, lol... Yeah this is certainly going to be fun to watch unfold. I am thinking there will certainly be positive busts across Connecticut. I know when looking at a product like bufkit it's just going to be reflective of the model, but when you're talking about a location like BDL or even HFD, in the valley, and looking for a screw job...I would expect to see some different looks then what bufkit is offering. It's really just going to come down to the CCB and whether we get it to move across the state...if that happens we're all golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro looks good. Just need another tick north at 12z. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Freak just smiling Looks better for CNE at least. But he’ll get some for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't even get any notifications of when I'm next. I get emails but not app notifications. There is a settings feature within the app but cbs platform can be wonky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Jesus what a mess. The mesos look far more impactful than the globals here in CT. High high bust potential. People keep referring to this has having a 'high bust potential' Busting what, though? I don't know what they think will bust when every solution is on the table and almost equally plausible here. I think people have it sort of instilled in their deeper mentality that a big snow event not happening, must be a bust. But that's not really( in the philosophical sense) fair to pin that on models when they are all demonstrating pour continuity. If folks' expectations are high, and that is not fulfilled, pure logic would thus dictate in a situation such as this, that it is their expectation that is busting... IF that's what we mean by bust for a system that has vast spread and continuity problems, than sure - but ... we can certainly control our expectations? That's on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I’ve never been part of a forecast like this. It’s truly extraordinary that we’re at game time and have this much spread potential. Normally I would have expected the high res to be torched with the globals gone wild. I’m having a hard time rationalizing taking the globals over the high res, when the high res should have a better handle on boundary layer and mesoscale features, other than looking at reputation of the globals. We’ve gotten spoiled with the technology at our disposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Wow what a trend at this range…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So much for saving a horse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...pure logic dictates their expectation is what is busting... Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro looks good. Just need another tick north at 12z. when we jump that significantly just as event unfolding, it will probably tick more. Wasn’t up messages, but did have a sense of the uncertainty and the possibility of something good for us Lots of possibilities here for a big band to get up to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ve never been part of a forecast like this. It’s truly extraordinary that we’re at game time and have this much spread potential. Normally I would have expected the high res to be torched with the globals gone wild. I’m having a hard time rationalizing taking the globals over the high res, when the high res should have a better handle on boundary layer and mesoscale features, other than looking at reputation of the globals. We’ve gotten spoiled with the technology at our disposal. I would think models made to handle convection would do better. But at this point who the heck knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The good news is its due for an upgrade soon...the bad news as a poster said here last night is the NAM is set to be discontinued perhaps....its fallen behind schedule since the plan was for the HRRR to run to 84 I believe, but as we've seen the HRRR often has a major BL cool bias beyond 18-24 and sometimes even a midlevel one too The less models the better imo but the euro should roll back several upgrades instead lol. I’m sure it scores really well at H5 in Scandinavia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: People keep referring to this has having a 'high bust potential' Busting what, though? I don't know what they think will bust when every solution is on the table and almost equally plausible here. I think people have it sort of instilled in their deeper mentality that a big snow event not happening, must be a bust. But that's not really( in the philosophical sense) fair to pin that on models when they are all demonstrating pour continuity. If folks' expectations are high, and that is not fulfilled, pure logic dictates their expectation is what is busting... IF that's what we mean by bust for a system that has vast spread and continuity problems, than sure - but ... we can certainly control our expectations? That's on us. Logic to me is a sub 925 passing under us with tremendous crashing heights would inflict a colder solution to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So much for saving a horse You guys have been telling me how good it is with these…it’s leading the way. Lmao. It sucks! Period. Can’t keep a solution to save its ass. Not that the others have been any better. But I don’t want to hear how good it is anymore…cuz it isn’t. JAM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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