Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Looking like a non event for much of CT outside of the hills based on current guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 If after a solid three weeks of tracking and I end up with nada IMBY…Oh how ‘23 of you… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You are at 200’ in valley..even if edge . They tried to ...ahh ok good luck There is something to what he says. My family is from Simsbury and I work there currently. Been observing this area for 50 years (well more like 45) This is the type of storm where all bets are off as far as location. Half the time we get lucky and side closer to lower hill town weather. Fine line for sure, but my gut feeling is we do OK here. I mean, I was never expecting 2 feet from this storm anywhere anyway, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Looking like a non event for much of CT outside of the hills based on current guidance Funny, Bob Cox who's usually super conservative is going with 6-12 valley north of Hartford, 3-6 south and 1-2 feet for the western hill towns... YMMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, UnitedWx said: Funny, Bob Cox who's usually super conservative is going with 6-12 valley north of Hartford, 3-6 south and 1-2 feet for the western hill towns... YMMV Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Looking like a non event for much of CT outside of the hills based on current guidance Violently disagree. I think minimum you see 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Seems like most models like around 12" for imby, probably lose 0.5-075" of initial QPF to rain. Obviously my area (128-495 NW Boston) is very sensitive to temps, flip time and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Violently disagree. I think minimum you see 6” As violent as the diarrhea I had when I saw this morning’s output? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: There is something to what he says. My family is from Simsbury and I work there currently. Been observing this area for 50 years (well more like 45) This is the type of storm where all bets are off as far as location. Half the time we get lucky and side closer to lower hill town weather. Fine line for sure, but my gut feeling is we do OK here. I mean, I was never expecting 2 feet from this storm anywhere anyway, so... So true even in Canton downtown near the Simsbury line is a much different world than north canton near granby and barkhmasted with some elevation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Outside of the immediate shoreline and within the valley, much of CT should do very well. What’s going to kill the valley is just the torched BL. Kinda sucks with the warm start this AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The capture is far too north and late now into the GOM..a far cry from some of yesterday's earlier runs that backed the storm in east of the Cape with a solid ccb to a lot of EMA. I think the winds will be strong here..but for a shorter duration. I guess the Euro/3K NAM would be decent, and maybe we can tick this back south a bit at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be epic . BOX has gusts to 55 here which I think is high Gusts 60-80 for E. MA that is impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 MNGW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: MNGW Tomorrow is going to be a wild day for many of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: There is something to what he says. My family is from Simsbury and I work there currently. Been observing this area for 50 years (well more like 45) This is the type of storm where all bets are off as far as location. Half the time we get lucky and side closer to lower hill town weather. Fine line for sure, but my gut feeling is we do OK here. I mean, I was never expecting 2 feet from this storm anywhere anyway, so... 16 minutes ago, Johnno said: So true even in Canton downtown near the Simsbury line is a much different world than north canton near granby and barkhmasted with some elevation We are right on the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Looks like the idea of big snow here is all but gone. Just hoping it’s enough in the state to get work cancelled tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like the idea of big snow here is all but gone. Just hoping it’s enough in the state to get work cancelled tomorrow lol 4-8 of heavy wet snow should make things hell enough with the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Well at least we get a pretty nice sunrise out of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Forget generators--that Gardner / Paxton stretch might just need to move on to chainsaws and roof trusses. It's so forested out that way too. WSSI upped them to extreme impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The 3k NAM identifies the terrain and topography so well . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Local stations slashing totals this morning… ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I'm squarely inside BOX's 12-18 zone. That said, it won't take much fro me to get knocked down to the 8-12. Based on recent guidance--and the uncertainty--I think it prudent for everyone outside of Northern Worcester County to be prepared for results in the range-level below where BOX has them. The 9-17 in my P/C reflects this pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, kdxken said: Well at least we get a pretty nice sunrise out of it. That is a fantastic sunrise photo...now what was it that they say about red in the morning....? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It's not about the topography. Mid level and low track far more important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Outside of the immediate shoreline and within the valley, much of CT should do very well. What’s going to kill the valley is just the torched BL. Kinda sucks with the warm start this AM Hows bufkit look on 6z gfs.. looks like a sick banding signature over CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The 3k NAM identifies the terrain and topography so well . That's not even a 10:1 map. Those totals would be pretty devastating if it's all white concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: It's not about the topography. Mid level and low track far more important. It is very much topographic related. Any marginal profile storms are 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hows bufkit look on 6z gfs.. looks like a sick banding signature over CT. That was the "snowiest" run the GFS has had for this area, for nearly 36 hrs...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, wx_observer said: That's not even a 10:1 map. Those totals would be pretty devastating if it's all white concrete. 4 “ is usually the number when white pines start to snap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is very much topographic related. Any marginal profile storms are My point is your elevation would not matter because of the marginal airmass above (in worst scenario). Seeing signs of mid level warming, and dry slot. This is why nw CT and berks are Jacks and me to you are biggest question marks. There is a nightmare scenario for you where I have heavy snow falling and you dryslot, I'm not favoring that scenario at all for the record. You should also stack after the flip because of colder air at elevation compared to me. Hoping dynamics will overcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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