dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, get to Friday I'll have to check in as i will have limited access on models being up in NW Maine from tomorrow to Saturday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: its "positive" though so its the max accumulation, not current snow depth. If you go back in time it looks the same Has anyone ever verified these depth change maps? I know they were an abject failure Jan 22 when people were pimping them. No way that is right in ORH County. Hard sell with that Euro prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I love me some man members that's for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Has anyone ever verified these depth change maps? I know they were an abject failure Jan 22 when people were pimping them. No way that is right in ORH County. Hard sell with that Euro prog. They are decent in marginal thermal profiles . Good low end of range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Has anyone ever verified these depth change maps? I know they were an abject failure Jan 22 when people were pimping them. No way that is right in ORH County. Hard sell with that Euro prog. during that cold blizzard? Jan 28-29? I wouldn't use them for that kind of system i think it highlights the lower elevations and coastal areas that would struggle more than the hills but wouldnt take it face value 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There are some man lows for members that's for sure. Manly, but I like it too…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: during that cold blizzard? Jan 28-29? I wouldn't use them for that kind of system i think it highlights the lower elevations and coastal areas that would struggle more than the hills but wouldnt take it face value Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They are decent in marginal thermal profiles Probably too low in the hills there, but it can be a reasonable proxy in marginal events as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably too low in the hills there, but it can be a reasonable proxy in marginal events as you said. Great tool if you know how to use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I hope doesn't turn out to be one of those situations where 10-20 miles and a few hundred feet up means the difference between 12 and 1... would be the ultimate 22/23 kick in the nuts for us death valley and/or coastal dwellers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I hope doesn't turn out to be one of those situations where 10-20 miles and a few hundred feet up means the difference between 12 and 1... would be the ultimate 22/23 kick in the nuts for us death valley and/or coastal dwellers I just want a good storm. If I can get 6" of paste with 50kt winds and take a few down....I'll be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I hope doesn't turn out to be one of those situations where 10-20 miles and a few hundred feet up means the difference between 12 and 1... would be the ultimate 22/23 kick in the nuts for us death valley and/or coastal dwellers I'm just happy there's something to track at this piont. Let's hope we're still tracking come the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at E24... Looks like a giant Weenis going right down through the berks.... Looks like someone is getting f#$&Ed .... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is a pretty ridiculous amount of members that completely stall and loop sub-980 lows here. it's very impressive like there are 10-15 or so that straight up stall over or S of ACK. it's wild The vast majority of the ens members are south and east of the op... The op would clearly seem to be an outlier at this time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 You always gets leery of stall scenarios this far out, but the H5 evolution, at least on the Euro, would support that idea. Would really like to see some better blocking support to truly get excited for that idea though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: The vast majority of the ens members are south and east of the op... The op would clearly seem to be an outlier at this time... Here's a snapshot of 144h....this is when the storm on the OP was over Block Island. There seems to be a cluster near where the OP was...maybe just south of the OP....then another cluster near the outer Cape/ACK...then a lot of Buckshot outside of that 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Well.. anyway.. straight up blend of the GEFs/EPS/GEPs is probably the best way to go for now. Likeable trends on going so we'll see where we go from here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 My gut still says stall/loop east of cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My gut still says stall/loop east of cape. So you're basically leaning MECS/HECS for a large chunk of the forum....bold call at D5, though it's certainly within the envelope of solutions. I wish there was some decent high pressure to the north though. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Isn’t it D6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a snapshot of 144h....this is when the storm on the OP was over Block Island. There seems to be a cluster near where the OP was...maybe just south of the OP....then another cluster near the outer Cape/ACK...then a lot of Buckshot outside of that Yep... The number of members in the buckshot southeast of the Cape is likely the case of the mean being pulled south and east... Hope to see some narrowing of the goal posts soon; maybe as soon as 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Isn’t it D6? It starts at D5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Isn’t it D6? Starts midday Monday so day 5? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My gut still says stall/loop east of cape. Agree... maybe a bit south & east of Cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, FXWX said: Agree... maybe a bit south & east of Cape... Yes....was going to say ese. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is what that solution implies in the interior lower terrain. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Narcan prob a little too stingy over interior (except maybe N ORH county)....blend it with the 10 to 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Narcan prob a little too stingy over interior (except maybe N ORH county)....blend it with the 10 to 1. Yea....none of these products are meant to be substituted for a forecast...hence "rip n' read"...they are "guidance". Its incumbent upon the forecaster to draw upon foundational concepts of meteorology and a firm grasp of local climo to apply them properly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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