Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 After reading all this stuf from everybody and knowing the 18Z are usually slightly amped, I do hope that H7 based on all the models stays a little more south than scrapping the CT coastline like that. Need that to be less amped so it can allow the primary ocean low to do its job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray to rain and Kevin blitzing. That’s funny. I don't care what that does right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 23 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: This obviously won't happen, but it would be funny if the system chased that convection out to the east and slipped away with minimal impacts. The meltdowns would be epic. I was just kidding with Tip last night. Little did I realize this could actually happen. Let's hope the 18z Euro was a burp run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, Massplow said: Have you posted your final call yet? Nah, working on it...had a client. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Good enough. Time to start tracking leaf-out. 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty much nailed it You guys are glutton for punishment. Hard or unpleasant thoughts… eager to find fault. Both of you have the chance of a windy few inches of paste, with higher upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 At least this winter gave me another reason to move out of New Bedford. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Lol nam slays. This is hilarious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Hrrr into ORH and NAM almost to far east ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: WTH is this map that looks like one of those spin paint plates you get at the big e 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lol nam slays. This is hilarious. Not sure how you don't toss the hrrr at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Little more And people are Going to still wake up surprised how E slopes have 25 and death valley 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lol nam slays. This is hilarious. At least the NAM is staying fairly consistent compared with some of the other models. Hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I can’t stop laughing at how true this is. I have my phone set to greyscale and it's still a true statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Models are locked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That is some serious dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure how you don't toss the hrrr at this range... Yeah it seems off for sure. But dude, as a forecaster, this is just ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Nam is a wound up full blown blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it seems off for sure. But dude, as a forecaster, this is just ridiculous. NAM is meh here compared to others but with that low position you would think qpf is underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Drew Barrymore: "Back-off, back-off. FIRESTARTER There is something wrong with models. Houston We Have A Problem. Each model has a bias and well known but this is ridiculous. Over programmed and overloaded with unseen data? No way to explain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3km NAM is very similar to the HRRR. Wildly different solutions and just a really weird setup. Not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Nam was a disaster unless you live in cape cod or Catskills but better for scooter and se mass / and cut back in Berks Orh county hugely and Ne mass it slayed weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: NAM is meh here compared to others but with that low position you would think qpf is underdone It occludes so quickly the warm/moist inflow is cut-off. This is something you'll end up seeing I think given the consistency with this aspect so I don't think this storm is going to be as prolonged as some anticipate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Hrrr all over at 18z, NAM just getting started a few hours earlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Boston destroyed on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM 3K is definitely coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: 3km NAM is very similar to the HRRR. Wildly different solutions and just a really weird setup. Not sure what to make of it. At least for the valley, I think it's just becoming too apparent we aren't going to overcome the torched BL. Even some of the more dynamical outputs we really struggle. But it's so freaking close. I guess it's not totally impossible for a tick 1-2F down tomorrow but idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That NAM solution is a blizzard for E MA. Temps fall into the upper 20s in the commahead with like 50 mph winds. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I don’t envy the mets who need to forecast this storm but as a weenie, this has been a lot of fun to track. We are less than 2 days out from the start of the storm and the models are still giving me anything from nothing to 2 feet of snow. That’s an insane amount of uncertainty this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: The models are signaling a strong elevation event for the interior hills. The lower elevations and coastal plain will depend on exact evolution and precip rates. Take 6-7:1 ratio in the lower elevation snow column, and 8-10:1 ratio in the higher elevation. Adjust map as needed. I mean it literally happens every spring. When work was in FIT it would be a couple inches of glop, and then at my house 6 miles away it would be 8". It happens once every spring season. I think there's just so much more moisture involved this time, so it's more pronounced. Hubb knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Forecasters around here have stuck with their 6 pm numbers by and large. Smart play to see where things go tonight and 6z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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