40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, 78Blizzard said: You could say the same about the crazy uncle, too. Last night posters were singing its praises, today, it sucks. Who sang its praise? Quote it.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll take e21 to go, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: The duds on those members look to be whiffs. Yes, there's def a significant (maybe 20%?) number of members that don't really produce much of a storm at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 This is the type of system where the Euro should still be superior to the GFS when it comes to complex coastal's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who sang its praise? Quote it.... I think some conflate posting about a model solution with "Singing it's praise" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS hooks and stalls this east of ACK....that would make the AEMATT crowd very happy. Based on the Euro op trend from last night, I think the EPS solution is going to be right. Expect to see the op trend toward it at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think some conflate posting about a model solution with "Singing it's praise" Exactly this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes, there's def a significant (maybe 20%?) number of members that don't really produce much of a storm at all. That's what i noticed anyways, Just following where there was snow on them indicate that to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: Like where it is right now because i have a pretty good idea where its going to go. Almost like clockwork with these. It's starts to tickle north each run, then a late capture..... and distance cries can be heard from the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the EURO is better at nailing down the final outcome, eventually. Agree. Just out of curiousity, whats the Narcan spitting out for the euro op run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This is the type of system where the Euro should still be superior to the GFS when it comes to complex coastal's. This has a northern stream diving in trying to capture a southern stream that is running out ahead of it....that's actually pretty similar to Feb 2013....only main difference is we don't have that nice area of confluence which turned that one into a monster both by locking in better cold and increasing the ML frontogenesis. But the Euro absolutely schooled most guidance on that one. Anytime you have complex interaction with two different streams, I feel like that is where the Euro shines....but I want to be careful because we're still on the edge of the Euro's wheelhouse for that sort of thing. I'd feel better if this was 24 hours closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 That was definitely something I like to see, but it doesn't just apply to my hood. A rapidly intensifying low east of ACK switching winds north under the CCB. Would back that flow 925 and below for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS I actually forgot another one....GFS did defeat the Euro in the 2010 Boxing Day storm. That was the other major coastal it scored the coup in. Obviously different setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: e20 will do. thanks I'll pray for e10, e11, e20, or e30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: You could say the same about the crazy uncle, too. Last night posters were singing its praises, today, it sucks. Who sang its praises? I didn’t see one post that did. Maybe I missed it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Just out of curiousity, whats the Narcan spitting out for the euro op run? Not out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This has a northern stream diving in trying to capture a southern stream that is running out ahead of it....that's actually pretty similar to Feb 2013....only main difference is we don't have that nice area of confluence which turned that one into a monster both by locking in better cold and increasing the ML frontogenesis. But the Euro absolutely schooled most guidance on that one. Anytime you have complex interaction with two different streams, I feel like that is where the Euro shines....but I want to be careful because we're still on the edge of the Euro's wheelhouse for that sort of thing. I'd feel better if this was 24 hours closer. Yes, We start to get into the 96hrs window and you can weigh the euro a lot more, If we still have a similar solution or better tomorrow at 12z, I think we may have a pretty good idea whats going to happen other then some subtle nuances as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ouch CT Valley I don’t want to talk about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think when it comes to complex s/w interactions, it's still generally better. Just understand it can be a little too ampy. Absolutely, it was more a joke. I’d still take the ECMWF over the others, maybe not as much as a decade ago but we all want that model on our side. Euro is currently schooling the GFS right now up here in upslope snow. Euro had a good Lise yesterday then not much, Gfs keeps showing QPF that’s not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I never thought I'd be asking this....but can someone post the Korean that shows the 1888 replay? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: I never thought I'd be asking this....but can someone post the Korean that shows the 1888 replay? Its basically the EURO, just more intense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is what that solution implies in the interior lower terrain. Wait 240 hr depth change? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 A few days ago ensembles had coastals as low as 940-950mb. Maybe we'll see a warmer 1888 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's what i noticed anyways, Just following where there was snow on them indicate that to me. I personally don’t feel like whiff is off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, there's def a significant (maybe 20%?) number of members that don't really produce much of a storm at all. Not good at this this lead time. We'd want amped and then less amped on all members, to at least lock in the precip. Once we get the precip, I'd take our chances with having the low make it's own cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wait 240 hr depth change? its "positive" though so its the max accumulation, not current snow depth. If you go back in time it looks the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I am praying the PAC can finally give us an assist. The pattern evolution across the PAC becomes quite complex with a major split flow developing. Looks like the shortwave which enhances the PNA ridge across the western comes all the way from Asia and amplifies as it digs south through the Gulf of Alaska...or slightly east. One thing that is great to see though or there isn't a train of shortwave energy within the northern stream across the CONUS over the weekend. Also, I would watch for confluence to arise on future model runs with PV lobe nearby 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I personally don’t feel like whiff is off the table. Nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Nope. Yea, get to Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 There are some man lows for members that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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