The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is this the longest New England thread since the mega Covid thread?

[George001]

25 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Be careful going anywhere near 20" with marginal surface temperatures. 

Nam is below freezing during the height of the storm

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is this the longest New England thread since the mega Covid thread?

Ya usually we don’t let them get this long. I think tip should start a new one for some good juju?

[wx_observer]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago.

I’d normally agree, but I live on a busy road in ORH and this year I’ve seen worse snow removal than I have in the past 13 years living here.  For sub-warning events, too.  They’ve had a hard time hiring enough plow drivers, from what I’ve heard.

[SnowHole413]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I just want to see double digits, couldn’t care less about where the JP zone is because I know it’s not in Greenfield. 

That’s where I’m at. I’d be happy with 8-10. Either way I plan to snowmobile in Savoy or southern VT Wednesday

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is this the longest New England thread since the mega Covid thread?

Not even close. Most recent months have cracked 200 (with no threats that happens. Mehbruary indeed.) but last January’s storm was 406!

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro and GFS very similar now.

Do you foresee any changes on you map this evening?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, wx_observer said:

I’d normally agree, but I live on a busy road in ORH and this year I’ve seen worse snow removal than I have in the past 13 years living here.  For sub-warning events, too.  They’ve had a hard time hiring enough plow drivers, from what I’ve heard.

Our tiny town has had a rough time with it due to lack of a driver or 2.  They have been advertising for one all winter... 

[78Blizzard]

Here's another solution from the 21z RAP.  Takes it into RI, then W through CT and out to LI at 0z Wed, lol.

[JKEisMan]

Upton sounded much more bullish in there latest afd. Not sure that’s a good thing or bad thing.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya usually we don’t let them get this long. I think tip should start a new one for some good juju?

That would only be fair since he warned of this threat 9 days ago.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

Not even close. Most recent months have cracked 200 (with no threats that happens. Mehbruary indeed.) but last January’s storm was 406!

Yeah... good points.  I hadn't looked.  It just felt like a long one... I've looked at so many model runs with this it feels like it has been forever

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is this the longest New England thread since the mega Covid thread?

Maybe. Hopefully it doesn’t end the same way, with hurt feelings, name calling, and bans galore!  

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Maybe. Hopefully it doesn’t end the same way, with hurt feelings, name calling, and bans galore!  

Any further eastward movement by the next GFS could bring us that. 

[tim123]

18z euro rolling yet?

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Maybe. Hopefully it doesn’t end the same way, with hurt feelings, name calling, and bans galore!  

I haven’t melted yet. Just wait. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, tim123 said:

18z euro rolling yet?

35 min

[78Blizzard]

Just now, tim123 said:

18z euro rolling yet?

Later now due to DST.

[tim123]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

35 min

I hate daylight saving 

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

18z euro rolling yet?

It runs an hour later now with the time change.  

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

as long as the B word doesn't get tossed out there, we're good... that's like the kiss of death

"Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12
  to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph."

Whether it is or it isn't remains to be seen, but I'm not sure what would result from this forecast besides a blizzard.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

18z euro rolling yet?

NYC Blizzard

SNE shafted

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

"Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12
  to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph."

Whether it is or it isn't remains to be seen, but I'm not sure what would result from this forecast besides a blizzard.

Doesn’t it technically have to be below 20 degrees or a certain temperature?

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

as long as the B word doesn't get tossed out there, we're good... that's like the kiss of death

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I think this is rapidly devolving into forgettable for 90% of the forum 

Dilemma:  do you bother using the snowblower for 4" of snow in mid-March. or let the sun do the work for you.....

You're getting more than 4 inches

[rimetree]

Been absorbing the analysis here. Great discussion. Still seems like a flip of the coin as to how this ultimately plays out. Seems like higher elevations in W New England are a lock for a nice storm. Going with 8-10" here but we'll be waffling on the real solution until go-time. Wish we had a colder air mass to help make this a true all-timer.

[DomNH]

Gun to head I’d go 6-12’’ here. Big boy totals in the usual favored elevation spots. Going to need consistently epic rates to score 12’’+ in the lowlands and I’m not confident in that yet.  Any 1-2sm subby zone stuff isn’t going to accumulate for shit. 

[FXWX]

By wiping down & tanking up my tractor this afternoon, I came back in to check trends?  The old don't touch the money curse come is starting to haunt me!  Worried about Murphy's Law syndrome.

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

"Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12
  to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph."

Whether it is or it isn't remains to be seen, but I'm not sure what would result from this forecast besides a blizzard.

I would love to see it verified, I believe I've only seen it verified a couple times inland in my life, that's usually relegated to the coast where those sustained winds are common, but near the coast with this one may not get three hours of 1/4mi vis snow, hopefully for there I'm wrong... my area doesn't see winds sustained above 35 during storms often, it's usually after when the NW screaming winds come

[Roger Smith]

While some models have changed a bit, the weighted six-model consensus seems similar, perhaps a touch less dual-centered. More and more this looks like a two-jack storm, one near an axis NE-SW through ORH and the other from PSF to BGM. I think a few locations (maybe not airports) will break 20" with this one, big station or airport max 15-18.

The less dual centered this turns out, the stronger wind potential -- a dual centered low is always a bit bland with wind speeds, I feel. Still peak gusts over 60 mph in a dual, but potential for 80-90 with a lone center. Most likely location for these maximum wind gusts would appear to be around Plymouth MA. 

Will give the 00z suite a six-model analysis and see what the consensus looks like then. My subjective forecast aside from doing it this objective way is a 976 mb low moving past Cape into western GOM, tiny loop and back to the southeast. I think that might increase snowfalls to 20-25 inches in places but still the max axis is near ORH. It would reduce the PSF-ALB-BGM totals to 12-15 as a secondary max.