mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The op GFS and GEFS are just a little different... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What do you have for the season? I think Mitch is over 100” now I’m probably in 80s. No 100 for Mitch, even Stratton peak only 107” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you are golden for 18+. There’s far too much emphasis on this forum on snow maps. Look at the modeled deformation, fronto and rapid deepening. Factor in the met input here and how wherever you live and your Climo and you should have a pretty good feeling of how each area will do still a few red flags if 0z is good I would go higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 46 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: My futility record will be intact if that plays out. Silver lining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: still a few red flags if 0z is good I would go higher You and Hubb only have yellow flags.....whether it's 16 or 24. The red flags are for everywhere else where there might be 3 or 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Be careful going anywhere near 20" with marginal surface temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: Be careful going anywhere near 20" with marginal surface temperatures. I personally don’t think anyone is getting 20” with this. So many flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: My futility record will be intact if that plays out. Silver lining. What map is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Southern Greens need this one. Seriously tempted to drive to Bennington for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 We need rates. When the mid level and surface lows stack we’re all going to town. But that scenario unfortunately is so easy to miss… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, mannynyc said: The op GFS and GEFS are just a little different... That GEFS is a great look imo. That would kick ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seriously tempted to drive to Bennington for this. Skip Bennington head up to Woodford 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I'm still going to be on the bullish side. Working on an updated forecast but don't think I'll make drastic changes. I may lower totals a bit though for each zone (so 18-24'' down to 16-20'' and 12-18'' down to 10-16'' etc). I'll take the luck with the mid-levels...the mid-levels are hard to ignore. I know we've been screwed before where we had great mid-levels and got screwed, but more times then not, this will supersede. Regarding the chasing of convection, I feel confident in saying that idea is not going to happen. The degree of convection doesn't appear to be that widespread or intense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Skip Bennington head up to Woodford Is there enough infrastructure (restaurants,etc) to spend a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you are golden for 18+. There’s far too much emphasis on this forum on snow maps. Look at the modeled deformation, fronto and rapid deepening. Factor in the met input here and how wherever you live and your Climo and you should have a pretty good feeling of how each area will do Tip agrees with you…maybe 0z comes roaring back like last night…Ray was so pumped, and everybody was, but then it all fell apart today for the most part(except for CMC and NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: I’m probably in 80s. No 100 for Mitch, even Stratton peak only 107” As per his twitter he hit 100” yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This may go into what Oceanst was saying earlier, but I think any low with convection is going to be weak and the shortwave energy is overdone...so a scenario of a capture and better blossoming of the storm as a whole. WE'RE GETTING BURRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I really don’t want to write tonight lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This may go into what Oceanst was saying earlier, but I think any low with convection is going to be weak and the shortwave energy is overdone...so a scenario of a capture and better blossoming of the storm as a whole. WE'RE GETTING BURRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111 WGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Tip agrees with you…maybe 0z comes roaring back like last night…Ray was so pumped, and everybody was, but then it all fell apart today for the most part(except for CMC and NAM). Nothing really fell apart at all today though. There wasn’t much that changed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Southern Greens need this one. Amen brother! Downing an IPA as I watch the latest models up the ante for our area. The 18z GFS and 12z Euro seem to keying in on this area as the jackpot zone with between 3" and 4" QPF as snow! Even half of those amounts would still yield a good snowstorm... This doubled barreled low idea may actually be quite good for us as they act to lengthen the easterly LLJ fetch and prevent the heavy snow band from pivoting on through too quickly. The double barreled low is a result of competing forces: synoptic forcing vs. convective forcing. The eastern low is a result of the southern convection being advected N and NE along the eastern side of the big trough through the Great Lakes, while the western low results from the synoptic forcing associated with cyclonic vorticity advection and diffluence aloft ahead of this ULL. Eventually the two lows likely mesh together near the vicinity of Cape Cod at which point eastern areas may be able to dynamically cool the column and flip to heavy snow. This looks to be a fascinating event meteorologically as well as a big snow producer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones with sustained 'cane winds in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the eve of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like to impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed Kudos to you for zeroing in on this impressive signal 9 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: I’m probably in 80s. No 100 for Mitch, even Stratton peak only 107” I need to double check, but I'm even mid 80's here The COOP near Bromley is over 100" and the other Cocorahs guy past Bromley is near 120". Mitch at 100 makes sense for sure. You miss alot of tiny events that add up not being here full time, which i dont think you are? Anyway, looks good as of now for the Mt Snow up to Stratton corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seriously tempted to drive to Bennington for this. Terrible idea. Skip DDH and up into the hills like Woodford or eastern slopes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing really fell apart at all today though. There wasn’t much that changed I wouldn’t say they fell apart, but things became more tenuous. We crush without that random pos low pressure lobe, but it’s showing up enough to be a concern, especially in southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro and GFS very similar now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, mannynyc said: The op GFS and GEFS are just a little different... If the GFS is one of those members, it has to be the one furthest OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing really fell apart at all today though. There wasn’t much that changed GFS is a nothing burger. RGEM is an inch or two(nothing burger), but ya that model sucks. Euro wasn’t very good for most today. Duel lows and way east lows aren’t gonna do much for us. Things have devolved for CT outside of NW corner. Sure a 2-4 inch/3-5” for most areas away from the water is doable..::::::but we’ll see what 0z says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: I need to double check, but I'm even mid 80's here The COOP near Bromley is over 100" and the other Cocorahs guy past Bromley is near 120". Mitch at 100 makes sense for sure. You miss alot of tiny events that add up not being here full time, which i dont think you are? Anyway, looks good as of now for the Mt Snow up to Stratton corridor. Heath MA got 3-4” Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I just want to see double digits, couldn’t care less about where the JP zone is because I know it’s not in Greenfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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