Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones with sustained 'cane winds in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the eve of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like to impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed Alert! The southern CT weenie group hacked into Tips AMWX account! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: If he's wrong I'll need my own toaster bath meme I'm not guaranteeing "cryopocalypse" I'm just trying to impress people not to lower the upper bounds on this thing - at all! It has the features that have in the past, snuck up and over performed. It's got the genetics for that kind of talent. We'll see how it plays? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Alert! The southern CT weenie group hacked into Tips AMWX account! I hope he's right. Only the 3k looks good for my area now. RGEM, NAM and GFS are a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just want to point out: box afd mentioned, "Typically a storm track so close to the coast will yield a rain/snow line well northwest of I-95. However, in this event,with rapid height falls (cooling from top down thru the column), ther ain/snow line may collapse right to the surface low! If that does occur (not saying it's likely) there would be a death band just a few miles north and west of an rgem like solution. That might be intermittent thundersnow over BDL Kev right down 91. Edge of dryslot lines up right about there, that's usually where you'll get the unstable environment. Key word from afd was "may", but just saying that has potential to be epic just nw of the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 So the only good guidance here now is the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Reggie is south and east so GGEM will folllow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Dismissed...like you let it out of class early lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dismissed...like you let it out of class early lol We bury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I'm all in on this one my guess here is 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: I'm all in on this one my guess here is 10" Yea I was thinking 8-10 here and up the street at 900’ probably 14 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Southern Greens need this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I think this is rapidly devolving into forgettable for 90% of the forum Dilemma: do you bother using the snowblower for 4" of snow in mid-March. or let the sun do the work for you..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I'm all in on this one my guess here is 10" The writing is on the wall out here. First call still stands at 6-10” but the bust factor is real. I’m checking out for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: RGEM. looks great! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think this is rapidly devolving into forgettable for 90% of the forum Dilemma: do you bother using the snowblower for 4" of snow in mid-March. or let the sun do the work for you..... Don’t bother. 10 plus you blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Southern Greens need this one. What do you have for the season? I think Mitch is over 100” now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My P&C is 8-16. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think this is rapidly devolving into forgettable for 90% of the forum Dilemma: do you bother using the snowblower for 4" of snow in mid-March. or let the sun do the work for you..... The salt from our tears should melt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first call: Bump, feeling pretty good about this for the most part after 18z. Northern ORH and Berks probably low, but the 4-8 zone may be too high, especially south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think this is rapidly devolving into forgettable for 90% of the forum Dilemma: do you bother using the snowblower for 4" of snow in mid-March. or let the sun do the work for you..... don't even need the sun, it's been marginal winter since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 going with 14 here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The writing is on the wall out here. First call still stands at 6-10” but the bust factor is real. I’m checking out for a bit. Before you go into Gummy heaven.. what do you think this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS is major dryslot issues in CT with that H7 track/evolution initially but I would think CT still gets hit with the CBB as it develops. Ughhhh this is going to be so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I like 14-16” here . Not final,, but as of now that’s how I lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bump, feeling pretty good about this for the most part after 18z. Northern ORH and Berks probably low, but the 4-8 zone may be too high, especially south. Looks like Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I like 14-16” here . Not final,, but as of now that’s how I lean thinking about that here depending on what 0z does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 We need a new shuffle of the cards down here. Too bad the next runs are so friggin late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: We need a new shuffle of the cards down here. Too bad the next runs are so friggin late. I honestly think the Reggie snow map I posted earlier will be close to what is realized. Right now only the 3k NAM helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: thinking about that here depending on what 0z does I think you are golden for 18+. There’s far too much emphasis on this forum on snow maps. Look at the modeled deformation, fronto and rapid deepening. Factor in the met input here and how wherever you live and your Climo and you should have a pretty good feeling of how each area will do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Yeah, the 3k keeps the middle finger to our south, not up our rectum. Alas, the 3k NAM is a thin reed to hang upon.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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