Johnno Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said: NW CT and the Berkshires have seemed locked in for a couple days on this. I really hope that holds - ever since I moved back here 5 years ago, everything has been pretty pedestrian. When we built the house, we bought a great cabbed John Deere tractor with a 5 foot blower on the front and haven't really been able to see what is can do. yup can not hate the look for northern Litchfield county and the berks, it’s coming for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: Well a lot of guidance rains on everyone south of route 2 for the first stretch but you should be good by 12z. Just as an aside .. see BOX afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Neither do I most frustrating storm to track in a long time. Southern ct solutions are getting tossed around like a rag doll Dam..I know. Some maps have me at 8-10(Euro), some at a foot, some at 14-18+(NAM’s)…, NWS (BOX) has me at 4”. Take my pick right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Box afd is super bullish. Weenies launched to Mars. Thundersnow mentioned. Wee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It may snow, it may not snow, I don't care. People way too emotionally invested over something they can't control. 1 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damage Mon night/early Tue morning, rain changes over to snow as far southeast as the I-95 corridor, in response to strong forcing for ascent and melting snow in the boundary layer. However, despite snow falling during the Tue morning commute (I95 & points NW), high res guidance suggest surface temps still above freezing. Therefore, accumulations for the Tue morning commute likely confined to the high terrain. However by late morning and especially the afternoon, surface temps will cool and snow is expected to accumulate in all areas, except southeast MA, where temps are expected to remain above freezing. Therefore the late day Tue commute is expected to have snow covered roads from I-95 corridor, including Boston to Providence and points northwest. Snowfall rates of 1+ inches are possible, along with very strong northeast winds yielding low visibility. Typically a storm track so close to the coast will yield a rain/snow line well northwest of I-95. However, in this event, with rapid height falls (cooling from top down thru the column), the rain/snow line may collapse right to the surface low! By Tue evening/night, surface low should be just east of our longitude, with winds shifting to the NNW, and rain/snow line will crash southeast thru the Cape and Islands. Thus, accumulating snow continues Tue night as comma head pivots across the area. Snow tapers off Wed morning, except possibly continuing across CC as comma head maybe slow to depart. Given the strong height falls/increasing mid level lapse rates, would not be surprised to see isolated TSSN Tue! Given the above attributes, expanded the winter storm watch farther southeast into the I-95 corridor of Boston and Providence. High confidence for 7+ inches across the high terrain of MA, resulted in watches being converted over the warnings. Snow accumulations always difficult to forecast in March, given increasing sun angle, warm ground and low SLR. However for this event, heavy qpf of 2-3" (some guidance sources 4-5"!) supports dynamical and diabatic cooling processes, that will support heavy snow threat and help offset the high sun angle and warm ground. In addition, despite low SLR and some loss in snowfall potential on the front end as ptype will be rain, plenty of qpf to work with after the changeover. To come up with a conservative snow forecast given still beyond 48 hours in model time, we capped SLR to 10-1 with lower ratios in the coastal plain, and limited snow accumulations to surface temps 32 or colder. This still resulted in 12-18" in the high terrain, tapering downward to 4-7 inches in the Boston to Providence corridor. More importantly, given this will be a heavy wet snow (transitioning to higher SLR Tue night), past events have shown the onset for snapping tree branches is 4+ inches. Thus, power outage risk increases where our snowfall map is greater than 4 inches. That AFD has more exlamatino points than a Wiz post if he hears a distant rumble of thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Haven’t had time to look at anything since, but this is my first call map from this morning. Should be a fun one for most of you! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: Haven’t had time to look at anything since, but this is my first call map from this morning. Should be a fun one for most of you! Excellent map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Can’t wait for my 0-27 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Box afd is super bullish. Weenies launched to Mars. Thundersnow mentioned. Wee Ya it was sounding like they think it’s gonna be a major storm. Sounds good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Can’t wait for my 0-27 inches. Username checks out 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It may snow, it may not snow, I don't care. People way too emotionally invested over something they can't control. And yet still care enough to be watching the thread all afternoon 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I find this a little odd looking more closely. I would think the best fronto should be much farther northwest. Now of course it's going to be strongest where the horizontal temperature gradient increases over time which this is where the model focus that. Vertically stacking ... temp crashes in the core, not as much because of jet intersection related lift outside the axis of rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Man…gonna be a tough forecast. I think at some point a chunk of SNE is going to get a really strong deformation/fronto band just based on what we’re seeing in the mid and upper levels…it’s a really classic look…but what happens on either side of that makes a huge difference in whether this is a HECS type storm or merely a late season heavy snowfall that isn’t lighting up the record books. If we’re wasting too much of the front end on rain, then that makes a big difference. I think ORH county to Berkshires are looking pretty favorable for at least double digits (and someone prob sees 20+ in that zone). Elsewhere, much tougher forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Username checks out It really does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stop it Steve lol. I’ll send you a big bag of gummies if I get over 16”. Please I am.out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: And yet still care enough to be watching the thread all afternoon Bob Bob Bobalina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: That AFD has more exlamatino points than a Wiz post if he hears a distant rumble of thunder. They went from super conservative to having George write the AFD, what is going on there 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just as an aside .. see BOX afd I did. I think the high country early are the mountains of Ct/MA. Either way a good one en route and it may not be the last. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Please I am.out >16"...deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here.. Post 3k please like I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: >16"...deal. Dealio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ah see it's so much colder. Let's fucking do this . 3 k or bust. Gummi yummy for my tummy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I know it’s 10:1 but that gradient lol. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I’m still up in the air about Greenfield. I could see last week’s 7.5” actually being a bigger snow here than this one but I can also see how we could get 10-12”. Don’t love the valley shadow effect here. I may be a 10 minute drive from 2x what mby gets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Dealio From your lips to the storms two nips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 To be honest I really hate SF maps from the assorted models. It's not representative of the pending changes in model runs. Now a personally drawn map is an individual forecast inclusive of start to finish. With that said my weenie side results in a possible outcome to this chaos...SUBJECT TO CHANGE Stated days ago, that ORH S and E would get burnt. Probably way off but it's only fun at least for yours truly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: And yet still care enough to be watching the thread all afternoon nope, wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 gfs is terrible SE of I84 thru 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The gfs is terrible for CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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