The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket

[SouthCoastMA]

how are the winds here. we Phil?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

You guys...22 in Southbury easy with that cold for last 12 hrs

Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here..

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

At hr 57 most of the precip is over.

Well it’s moving in a bit before then, but sure. Maybe it never moves inland, nor takes that trajectory. 

[weatherwiz]

I find this a little odd looking more closely. I would think the best fronto should be much farther northwest. Now of course it's going to be strongest where the horizontal temperature gradient increases over time which this is where the model focus that. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop it Steve lol. I’ll send you a big bag of gummies if I get over 16”.

Send a check 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I will fight with the slot, but damage done at that point.

Maybe get a little TSSN before it comes through?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I will fight with the slot, but damage done at that point.

75-80?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Kind of seemed like a step to the euro, despite a decent final solution.

[Weather Mike]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here..

I may just head for the Catskills. Its been so consistent on almost every run to get nailed 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here..

That is slightly better than 10-1 here considering that there was rain at the beginning.  Not surprised with the colder look aloft, as well as at the surface.

[mannynyc]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Kind of seemed like a step to the euro, despite a decent final solution.

It's more of a middle ground between the 12z Nam and the 12z Euro. 

[jaf]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Kind of seemed like a step to the euro, despite a decent final solution.

 

So SE MA either gets 2 feet or nothing at all

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here..

That shows a foot here…that’s more than an hour of snow…? Lol. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

NW CT and the Berkshires have seemed locked in for a couple days on this.  

I really hope that holds - ever since I moved back here 5 years ago, everything has been pretty pedestrian.  When we built the house, we bought a great cabbed John Deere tractor with a 5 foot blower on the front and haven't really been able to see what is can do. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That shows a foot here…that’s more than an hour of snow…? Lol. 

Lol I said down here, I’m in SWCT. It’s the nam also means nothing it’ll be completely different at 00z probably congrats CNE

[78Blizzard]

Early hr 24 look at RGEM shows it probably wants to continue being stubborn.

[TalcottWx]

Nice banding signal on the 18z NAM 3k here, towards the latter stages. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol I said down here, I’m in SWCT. It’s the nam also means nothing it’ll be completely different at 00z probably congrats CNE

NAM has been bouncing....went from SE MA JP last night, to E NH this AM and now back to se MA.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Early hr 24 look at RGEM shows it probably wants to continue being stubborn.

Through 48 the track is near the Cape, but thermals look torched 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol I said down here, I’m in SWCT. It’s the nam also means nothing it’ll be completely different at 00z probably congrats CNE

Oh ok….I don’t know what to think anymore? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage 

Mon night/early Tue morning, rain changes over to snow as
far southeast as the I-95 corridor, in response to strong forcing
for ascent and melting snow in the boundary layer. However, despite
snow falling during the Tue morning commute (I95 & points NW), high
res guidance suggest surface temps still above freezing. Therefore,
accumulations for the Tue morning commute likely confined to the
high terrain. However by late morning and especially the afternoon,
surface temps will cool and snow is expected to accumulate in all
areas, except southeast MA, where temps are expected to remain above
freezing. Therefore the late day Tue commute is expected to have
snow covered roads from I-95 corridor, including Boston to
Providence and points northwest. Snowfall rates of 1+ inches are
possible, along with very strong northeast winds yielding low
visibility. Typically a storm track so close to the coast will yield
a rain/snow line well northwest of I-95. However, in this event,
with rapid height falls (cooling from top down thru the column), the
rain/snow line may collapse right to the surface low! By Tue
evening/night, surface low should be just east of our longitude,
with winds shifting to the NNW, and rain/snow line will crash
southeast thru the Cape and Islands. Thus, accumulating snow
continues Tue night as comma head pivots across the area. Snow
tapers off Wed morning, except possibly continuing across CC as
comma head maybe slow to depart. Given the strong height
falls/increasing mid level lapse rates, would not be surprised to
see isolated TSSN Tue!

Given the above attributes, expanded the winter storm watch farther
southeast into the I-95 corridor of Boston and Providence. High
confidence for 7+ inches across the high terrain of MA, resulted in
watches being converted over the warnings. Snow accumulations always
difficult to forecast in March, given increasing sun angle, warm
ground and low SLR. However for this event, heavy qpf of 2-3" (some
guidance sources 4-5"!) supports dynamical and diabatic cooling
processes, that will support heavy snow threat and help offset the
high sun angle and warm ground. In addition, despite low SLR and
some loss in snowfall potential on the front end as ptype will be
rain, plenty of qpf to work with after the changeover. To come up
with a conservative snow forecast given still beyond 48 hours in
model time, we capped SLR to 10-1 with lower ratios in the coastal
plain, and limited snow accumulations to surface temps 32 or colder.
This still resulted in 12-18" in the high terrain, tapering downward
to 4-7 inches in the Boston to Providence corridor. More
importantly, given this will be a heavy wet snow (transitioning to
higher SLR Tue night), past events have shown the onset for snapping
tree branches is 4+ inches. Thus, power outage risk increases where
our snowfall map is greater than 4 inches.

[78Blizzard]

Actually, the 925s are much better by 15z than the last run.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Actually, the 925s are much better by 15z than the last run on the RGEM.

 

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most stuff has it snowing Monday night

What stuff?

[78Blizzard]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

 

LOL, RGEM hooks and stalls in BOS bay.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

What stuff?

Almost everything has it snowing interior and hills Monday night . 
 

And has you snowing by daybreak 

[tavwtby]

ALY hoisted WSW for my area now, not Wavering on the totals either, still not sold yet but damn if all snow maps and NWS maps have been consistent for a couple days now, we shall see, excited regardless! game on

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ok….I don’t know what to think anymore? 

Neither do I most frustrating storm to track in a long time. Southern ct solutions are getting tossed around like a rag doll 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost everything has it snowing interior and hills Monday night . 
 

And has you snowing by daybreak 

You better be right... Dammit! ;-)

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost everything has it snowing interior and hills Monday night . 
 

And has you snowing by daybreak 

Well a lot of guidance rains on everyone south of route 2 for the first stretch but you should be good by 12z.