MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Wow Need it to hook sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Here is what that solution implies in the interior lower terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The mean would make many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lot are getting tugged NW on the 12z EPS Mmm it's an artifact of being captured I would think. This is a integrating event in some of these recent trends... The surface evolution - as we all know ... - ends up hesitating if not stalling, if not performing loops while doing so. But these inidividual members may or may not be fully resolving that ... "partial" in this sense would lend to a NW motion, just not as likely double-back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lot of members are getting tugged NW on the 12z EPS. This is actually what I said we were trending towards this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Have to admit this is a nice look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lot of members are getting tugged NW on the 12z EPS. certainly in the internal areas and hills of SNE. This whole stall loop capture thing, which has been on the models for several cycles, is why I think we are locked and loaded for this storm. Those usually don't fade away into nothing. I think this ends up a little further east. Stronger storms tend to hook more nw when deepening rapidly but we haven't had any big deepeners in a while so I could see that being overdone and thus a bit more east. And then there is Messenger... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My bet is it captures later.... These biggies that do capture and "stall"...it nearly always occurs later than modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is what that solution implies in the interior lower terrain. Ouch CT Valley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS hooks and stalls this east of ACK....that would make the AEMATT crowd very happy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model. Hey man.. I defended the Euro on that last snow event that did well up your way... The GFS was too far S and cold - from what I assessed - with adamant stubbornness too. heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model. I think when it comes to complex s/w interactions, it's still generally better. Just understand it can be a little too ampy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS hooks and stalls this east of ACK....that would make the AEMATT crowd very happy. Yea...that evolution is like....just strip and prance....wild and free....more snow for you, and more snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think when it comes to complex s/w interactions, it's still generally better. Just understand it can be a little too ampy. I haven't seen the GFS defeat the Euro yet on a significant coastal storm for us since it was the AVN model when it scored a coup in the 12/30/00 storm. Even when the Euro barfed in that run with giving NYC 30" in the Jan 2015 storm...it was like 50 miles too far west....but the GFS was still scraping ORH with like an inch of QPF....lol. GFS has really seemed to close the gap on the Euro in non-coastals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 anyone have that map with all of the members? i wanna find one that crushes me and then pray on it for the next few days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey man.. I defended the Euro on that last snow event that did well up your way... The GFS was too far S and cold - from what I assessed - with adamant stubbornness too. heh There was some compromise on that because EURO had mainly rain for all of SNE for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 It’s a good thing this is all happening outside and not inside of D4 in the models huh lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There was some compromise on that because EURO had mainly rain for all of SNE for awhile. The cliff's note version on that storm was the GFS won in the medium range (like D3-5) and the Euro won inside of 48h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I haven't seen the GFS defeat the Euro yet on a significant coastal storm for us since it was the AVN model when it scored a coup in the 12/30/00 storm. Even when the Euro barfed in that run with giving NYC 30" in the Jan 2015 storm...it was like 50 miles too far west....but the GFS was still scraping ORH with like an inch of QPF....lol. GFS has really seemed to close the gap on the Euro in non-coastals. even last year with the blizzard, the ECMWF did leagues better than any other model. the GFS was awful pure coastals are the one thing that still remains as a sore spot for the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The cliff's note version on that storm was the GFS won in the medium range (like D3-5) and the Euro won inside of 48h. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 christ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There was some compromise on that because EURO had mainly rain for all of SNE for awhile. Yeah I was throwing the Euro a bone there some. It’s just that of the two I find the GFS a little more egregious because it was transfixed in its error. I mean at least the euro wended its way to the truth – but I distinguish things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I do like seeing the lower heights in S Canada and the ticking east of the ULL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: anyone have that map with all of the members? i wanna find one that crushes me and then pray on it for the next few days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: christ The funny thing I’ve been noticing with that… The wave length looks too long between San Francisco and Boston. It’s almost like the models are trying to rush this thing to the east… I don’t know if that’s any kind of a sign or anything but that definitely looks like a stressed wave length. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model. You could say the same about the crazy uncle, too. Last night posters were singing its praises, today, it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I was throwing the Euro a bone there some. It’s just that of the two I find the GFS a little more egregious because it was transfixed in its error. I mean at least the euro wended its way to the truth – but I distinguish things like that. Yea, the EURO is better at nailing down the final outcome, eventually. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The duds on those members look to be whiffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: e20 will do. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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