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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Need to see 0z models but I think that I would lean between goal posts of 12z and 18z nam for track ...I think the part of S stream vort that bleeds East of Carolinas will be sooo Far East and away that it will not be more than a minor appendage And the part of S stream vorticity that consolidates With N stream will likely be where main low takes over closer to where ocean st wx says makes more sense  . Earlier an it’s 12 nam later and it’s 18z . Maybe I’m wrong But if 0z runs go with that I’m down with it 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment.

Lows never stack. Mid levels never really get organized 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment.

I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us.

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Lows never stack. Mid levels never really get organized 

the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us.

Yeah the continue move in that direction is not good. Still seems like a pretty solid event with power issues, but nothing near historic potential

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2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

A great storm; but the structure put a ceiling on it that run. Seems to be the difference between memorable and forgettable. Screenshot_20230312_163017_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ca6381b6df237f41fe4de9f16aeff1db.jpg

 

Does it start as rain in E MA, then flip to snow and pile up?

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective. 

Historic stuff is off the table except for select spots. 

 

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us.

Yea. GFS had the right idea all along, just saying.

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