CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: How much weight is a model that initializes hourly given past about 18 hours given? #TXwx/ and Texas subforum, it is used between 6 hour NAM runs for time of dryline or WAA storm initiation. I'd prefer the NAM or nested NAM at this range myself, partly because NAM is what I'd like. I don’t give extended hrrr a lot of credit for Synoptics. Just looking at it for trends and comparisons to other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not really sure how much this matters right now, but it's still a bit uneasy seeing the HRRR with a torched BL. Even if it was showing temps 1-2F colder...it would ease some concerns. How the sfc rebounds though obviously is tied into many factors but the difference between 32-33 and 33-34 is going to be massive in terms of outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 HRRR does dump hard on AEMATT as low consolidates fwiw. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sad This winter can diaf See my post on NYC forum. I don't see why NAM can't verify except at fairly low ratio. Near 10 inches of slushy paste in Brooklyn is a nice consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like that map. Moderate here is reasonable....extreme popping in Berks and NW CT hills 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Extreme is for snow load which is not good when talking about the tree damage/power outage potential. Going to be very ugly. One of the problems with the WSSI is that there isn't much more going into snow load than temp and wind. So put your temp near 32 and crank the winds and it will spit out extreme. Like there is no factor in there for previous snowfall that may still be on your roof. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM seems to be doing what the HRRR and Euro are doing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Point and click is far more bullish than the WSW. I'd sign on the dotted in a heartbeat Those have been all over the place for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: One of the problems with the WSSI is that there isn't much more going into snow load than temp and wind. So put your temp near 32 and crank the winds and it will spit out extreme. Like there is no factor in there for previous snowfall that may still be on your roof. Great info to know, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: NAM seems to be doing what the HRRR and Euro are doing I don’t see that at least through 26 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: NAM seems to be doing what the HRRR and Euro are doing It's out to 24 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Those have been all over the place for me. Monday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 32. East wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, WeatherX said: It's out to 24 hours lol If anything the southern vort looks a tick more amped through 27 hours. Northern vort is too though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 We know you need snow but your PBP is awful. Lean back homie... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We know you need snow but your PBP is awful. Lean back homie... not really looking at it and comparing to the Euro looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We know you need snow but your PBP is awful. Lean back homie... Fatty Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Fatty Joe I knew you or Scoots would get it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I wonder how much the ongoing convection across the Southeast is going to affect 18z/0z guidance with respect to the southern stream and associated vorticity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Stronger low on the nam at hour 27, 997mb vs 1000mb last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 There’s the freaking nipple! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 HRRR is quite windy even down into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 There is gonna be a dual low Of sorts , but if the nam can make the Far East one a little turd like 12z nam did and let the S stream energy that sorta splits (some is pulled initially north and meets N stream and some vorticity clearly is bleeding well East and causing a Far East low which may not be more than a turd I think that is the key to resolve and seems like ocean st wx thinks it makes more sense for the Main low to take over off NJ ... not the Far East blob / turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Feeling a nowcast situation if ever there was one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, wx_observer said: didn’t realize the winds were expected to be this high this far inland. That, plus 12-18” sounds like generator territory. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 335 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 MAZ002>004-008-009-026-130845- /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0004.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/ Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA- Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA- Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer 335 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...the high terrain of western and central Massachusetts. * WHEN...From 8 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, with snow covered roads and near zero visibility at times. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...heavy wet snow combined with gusty winds will increase the risk for power outages. This will be a high impactful winter storm. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Generator is gassed up and ready to go. Just came from supermarket it was jam packed. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This might be a bomb. Tough to tell through 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks slightly east with the low to me through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Gonna be a bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, subdude said: Generator is gassed up and ready to go. Just came from supermarket it was jam packed. lol had to wait for gas at the Cumbys in Templeton usually get a pump quick later on the line will probably be in the street lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Monday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 32. East wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Yup. It improved but got a little while it went to basically advisory level snow yesterday. It had been big earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Gonna be a bomb not like 12z like I said could see it early on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: had to wait for gas at the Cumbys in Templeton usually get a pump quick later on the line will probably be in the street lol Gardner stations are pretty much normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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