ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You posted the clown already, enough…we get it. this was the whole run and wasnt finished yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Okee dokee Nope is right. I don't buy that for a second. We've seen that model before and in the end it's just a Consolidated single low Center somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Mitchell's bodies will remain covered into May. EURO paints a 35 spot 10 to 1 and 52 kuchie. Also Hunchie might need rescue with 3 feet of heavy stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Okee dokee I love how they fuji dance off of the coast....just twirling around fliipping off and taunting all of the weenies that they just royally pissed off back on shore....."NAA NA-NA.N-NA, WE GOT YOUR SNOWWWW! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It comes down to how quickly they consolidate, which is usually on the slower end of the spectrum....so I would hedge against the NAM and towards the EURO.I guess so. If the NAM shows this on the 18z forward I’ll buy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I love how they fuji dance off of the coast....just twirling around fliipping off and taunting all of the weenies that they just royally pissed off back on shore....."NAA NA-NA.N-NA, WE GOT YOUR SNOWWWW! Would be on brand for 22-23 for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 there will be one low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 We pray the euro is wrong. We pray. We as in me. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya that looks absolutely silly. I don’t know how it still gives me like 8”on tvv bc at clown map,?… so it’ll probably be more like 4”. Sadly are we any closer to any type of consensus? Yes. Consensus is that phases suck for models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 These runs are choking off (occluding) the developing mid level low approaching CT pretty quickly so the best dynamics shift to the triple point well east. Nammy keeps the conveyors going 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Would be on brand for 22-23 for sure . So for us coasties it's down to just the NAMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Everyone was lined up outside the Dealer's house just now, and he only had enough product to get Hubby and ineedsnow their fix before closing the door and shades. 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You posted the clown already, enough…we get it. Rage rising? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So for us coasties it's down to just the NAMS. Looks like it. Good news is that we get to start drinking an hour earlier today with the time change, so all is not lost just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My first call: 5 3 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t envy anyone making a forecast for the public. Ukie and cmc are virtually nada here and the Nam and gfs are 15-18+ This storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 3/5/2001 Into CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So for us coasties it's down to just the NAMS. Hrrr was great .. Canadian oh so close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 One thing I like, personally is that its lessening the LBSW risk for me....look at this QPF (12z left) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: These runs are choking off (occluding) the developing mid level low approaching CT pretty quickly so the best dynamics shift to the triple point well east. Nammy keeps the conveyors going How do we stop that so the NAM ends up correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: These runs are choking off (occluding) the developing mid level low approaching CT pretty quickly so the best dynamics shift to the triple point well east. Nammy keeps the conveyors going Haven’t been a fan of the low 80000 miles E of CHH ever and it maybe visiting Boston with 3 hrs of lift In 8-9’th inning the gfs has it but has the N stream mid level low crush mass from west to East prior for a long time , and nobody really seems to be buying that as far as I can see The mesos apparently consolidate the low better and so does the Canadian and UKie so it’s like WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: These runs are choking off (occluding) the developing mid level low approaching CT pretty quickly so the best dynamics shift to the triple point well east. Nammy keeps the conveyors going That is one big concern...occlusion too quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My first call: Waaay too light N ORH CO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Waaay too light N ORH CO. Too light everywhere. It’s his defense mechanism 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr was great .. Canadian oh so close. Yeah, perhaps it's just the way things have gone for us since 2015 save 2021. Seems that we either are too far west or the storm bombs too far north or something else. Not sure what's causing it or how long until it flips back to pre 2015. EPS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVOyster Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Paging (summoning) Zeus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That more dominant northern stream is something we’d been trending away from but of course this event isn’t that easy…euro had to bring it back stronger this run. Keeps us on our toes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. That’s how I’d lean right now. Let the DPVA rule the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. And that’s what the nam did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west. Yup . Toss er in the shitter Frank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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